GaWx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Folks, The NOAA Nov. 2012 averaged PDO was just released and was -0.60 vs. -1.13 in Oct. My eyeballing tells me that the NOAA # is currently probably a bit lower than that....say, ~-.75 to perhaps as low as ~-1.00. ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v3b/pdo/pdo.dat Based on the pattern when comparing these two tables, I expect the U of Washington # for Nov. to be higher than -0.60...maybe as high as ~-0.40. I honestly expected a more negative # than -0.60. This may bode well for the winter if we could finally shake off the stubborn -PNA as -0.60 is a pretty modest -PDO, especially for the NOAA table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Cooling signals are growing for all ranges...we could end up with negative SSTAs in Jan and/or February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 The SON ONI has been released as +0.6. I don't see how this could be considering that the OISST based weeklies averaged only +0.35! The ONI's have really been funky since JJA and JAS, which were sig. cooler than the weeklies would suggest. Now, it is all of the sudden sig. too warm in relation to the weeklies! Despite the +0.6, it will next to impossible for an official ONI based weak Nino as five trimonths in a row are required: http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 The SON ONI has been released as +0.6. I don't see how this could be considering that the OISST based weeklies averaged only +0.35! The ONI's have really been funky since JJA and JAS, which were sig. cooler than the weeklies would suggest. Now, it is all of the sudden sig. too warm in relation to the weeklies! Despite the +0.6, it will next to impossible for an official ONI based weak Nino as five trimonths in a row are required: http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml the mei was up slightly from last month... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html we still have a weak neutral+ enso winter coming up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Cooling signals are growing for all ranges...we could end up with negative SSTAs in Jan and/or February. Didn't take long for the weeklies to turn negative: 05DEC2012 21.5-0.9 24.9-0.2 26.5-0.1 28.6 0.1 Could warm up a bit in the short term, but if the CFS is right, it could be bordering weak Niña (weeklies) by the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 it's been a crazy enso year for the mei index... 2012 -1.046 -.702 -.41 .059 .706 .903 1.139 .579 .271 .103 .166 a minus 1.046 to a plus 1.139 in six months is significant...The fall from el nino territory is also significant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Although I've given up on the Nino, I'm still following things. The SOI per my interp. of the 0Z Euro has what may turn out to be about the most negative period of SOI's since mid-Aug. lining up for 12/7-11. Any opinions on how much the anticipated pattern change for the US near that timeframe may be connected? All bow down to the mighty Euro! Not only has this period produced the most negative period of SOI's since mid-Aug., it has produced the most negative period since late June! There will be more days of negatives as this intensely negative few days winds down but they will rise rapidly. There may even be a day or two of positives around 12/15-16 before probably falling back to modest negatives 12/17-8. After this, it looks like positive SOI's (could be 1-2 strong +'s) for 12/19-21. So, major volatility in the daily SOI's is the theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Larry -- the PDO value off of the JISAO came in at -0.59 for November. Fairly impressed w/ this number and admittedly warmer than I thought we'd get at any point this winter. Nice spike from mid autumn. Latest SSTA in the Pacific don't look terrible along the West Coast. What this means to me is that there's a greater likelihood of seeing at least a 2-3 week PNA pattern this winter. When will that occur? My thinking is the late Dec-mid Jan period holds promise for an improved NPAC regime given the tropical Pacific, stratospheric indicators, as well as analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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