2012 ENSO Thread

[Mike.Ventrice]

An oceanic KW just went thru the Pacific, plus a CCKW, both helped ENSO 3.4 and 4 to warm. Their effects are almost over the W Pac, and the cooling/supressed phase of the wave will start soon (a couple of days maybe). That, plus medium range forecasts of mostly easterly low level wind anomalies will be the nail in the coffin of any Niño talk for this winter. In about a week there probably won't be any talk of any Niño emerging. Neutral has now >95% of chances of verifying, IMO, for NDJFM.

Be careful when using CFS MJO-forecasts!!! It propagates the MJO way too slow, and therefore that period of intraseasonal easterlies will be much faster than what is being predicted.

The downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave is currently at the longitude of 120Wish. Look at that thermocline!! Almost horizontal in nature. I can't stress enough the imporance of looking at the structure of the sub-surface isotherms over using an averaged box such as el nino 3.4 to depict what's really going on.

[CoastalWx]

Be careful when using CFS MJO-forecasts!!! It propagates the MJO way too slow, and therefore that period of intraseasonal easterlies will be much faster than what is being predicted.

The downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave is currently at the longitude of 120Wish. Look at that thermocline!! Almost horizontal in nature. I can't stress enough the imporance of looking at the structure of the sub-surface isotherms over using an averaged box such as el nino 3.4 to depict what's really going on.

Mike just to be clear, I assume the warmer water in the subsurface is from the downwelling ahead of the eastward moving wave, correct?

[Thunderhead]

From discussions at UAlbany about the cooling observed on TAO maps, be aware that if a tropical instability wave passes over a buoy, that buoy will likely register a cooling, even though this cooling may occur over a small area and not last long. OISST combines satellite and in-situ observations, so it's probably the best product to use for analyzing SST over a large area.

[GaWx]

From discussions at UAlbany about the cooling observed on TAO maps, be aware that if a tropical instability wave passes over a buoy, that buoy will likely register a cooling, even though this cooling may occur over a small area and not last long. OISST combines satellite and in-situ observations, so it's probably the best product to use for analyzing SST over a large area.

Thunderhead,

Interesting. Thanks for that tip. It did warm slightly today today but it lags OISST by a lot.

Folks,

Speaking of OISST, it warmed even more on the 11/14 map! Per Harry per SV, it was already just above +1.0 in 3.4 on 11/13. Due to what looks to have been another day of warming in much of 3.4, especially between 140W and 170W, and in this case an even more substantial warming per my eyes, I'm guessing that Harry's SV graph will show at least +1.1 and it may be as warm as +1.20-1.25 for 11/14!

Though there's still three more days of maps to see this calendar week, today's substantially warmer map is increasing my confidence that next Monday's very crucial 3.4 anomaly will show a significant rise from the prior number of +0.4. Whereas I don't expect it to be as warm as SV's numbers even with them both using OISST (these numbers seem to suggest close to or a bit above +1.0), I am thinking that barring a sudden cooldown over the next three days that this coming Monday's 3.4 anomaly will be at least +0.7! It may even warm to +0.8! Looking back at the weekly warmings for oncoming Ninos going back to 1991, the largest week to week warming was 0.5. The largest warming for a Nov. week was 0.3. The way things look right now, that 0.3 has a good chance to be tied and it could even be exceeded. I suppose there's some threat for the 0.5 to be tied, but I currently put those odds at well under 50%.

Due to the substantially warmer 11/14 map, I've decided to raise the chance for a Nino from 25% to 30%. IF we actually get a +0.7 or warmer this Monday in 3.4, that 30% will be raised quite a bit and it could even approach 50%.

Stay tuned, folks, because we have a new ballgame with regard to Nino chances!

[Harry]

Thunderhead,

Interesting. Thanks for that tip. It did warm slightly today today but it lags OISST by a lot.

Folks,

Speaking of OISST, it warmed even more on the 11/14 map! Per Harry per SV, it was already just above +1.0 in 3.4 on 11/13. Due to what looks to have been another day of warming in much of 3.4, especially between 140W and 170W, and in this case an even more substantial warming per my eyes, I'm guessing that Harry's SV graph will show at least +1.1 and it may be as warm as +1.20-1.25 for 11/14!

Though there's still three more days of maps to see this calendar week, today's substantially warmer map is increasing my confidence that next Monday's very crucial 3.4 anomaly will show a significant rise from the prior number of +0.4. Whereas I don't expect it to be as warm as SV's numbers even with them both using OISST (these numbers seem to suggest close to or a bit above +1.0), I am thinking that barring a sudden cooldown over the next three days that this coming Monday's 3.4 anomaly will be at least +0.7! It may even warm to +0.8! Looking back at the weekly warmings for oncoming Ninos going back to 1991, the largest week to week warming was 0.5. The largest warming for a Nov. week was 0.3. The way things look right now, that 0.3 has a good chance to be tied and it could even be exceeded. I suppose there's some threat for the 0.5 to be tied, but I currently put those odds at well under 50%.

Due to the substantially warmer 11/14 map, I've decided to raise the chance for a Nino from 25% to 30%. IF we actually get a +0.7 or warmer this Monday in 3.4, that 30% will be raised quite a bit and it could even approach 50%.

Stay tuned, folks, because we have a new ballgame with regard to Nino chances!

Try +1.35 or so.. Pretty impressive warming..

[Harry]

Today it is up to +1.5 on the daily stuff.

[WEATHER53]

Honestly not sure what benefit is derived from a daily tally of the enso, calling it dead, then back on-stuff like that.

[Msalgado]

Honestly not sure what benefit is derived from a daily tally of the enso, calling it dead, then back on-stuff like that.

Why does there have to be a benefit for someone interested in it to discuss it on an internet message board?

[GaWx]

Honestly not sure what benefit is derived from a daily tally of the enso, calling it dead, then back on-stuff like that.

Honestly not sure what benefit is derived from your post.

[GaWx]

Today it is up to +1.5 on the daily stuff.

I was going to post that it looked still warmer today in the loop. I now think we have a decent shot at a full 0.5 C warmup within just one week for this Monday's update. That would put 3.4 up to +0.9, which would tie it for the warmest week to date of the year. That 0.5 warming would also tie the greatest warming within one week for ANY week of any oncoming Nino since at least 1991. Even a 0.6 warming to +1.0 wouldn't be impossible! I'm definitely expecting a rather sharp cooldown once this warming ends just as an almost automatic reaction, but any such cooldown now may not be enough to take us out of weak Nino territory.

The chances for a Nino continue to rise. I'm now raising it from 30% to 40% due to this continued warming per OISST.

**This daily update is dedicated to Tenman Johnson**

[Hoosier]

How much difference is it really going to make if it ends up as warm neutral or sneaks into weak Nino territory per the ONI?

[GaWx]

How much difference is it really going to make if it ends up as warm neutral or sneaks into weak Nino territory per the ONI?

Weak Nino winters have been the coldest on average by a wide margin for much of the E US and especially for the SE US (an incredible 7 of 11 coldest Atlanta winters were during weak Ninos such as 1976-7 and 1977-8) ...colder than neutral positive on average (which is actually close to normal). The weak Ninos that followed Ninas have ben especially cold on average. So, if we get a -NAO/-AO and a +PDO, look out below! Even if we don't get the +PDO but do get the -NAO, cold prospects would still be good. Just not as good chancewise and intensitywise.

Look at it this way. If you tell me that there's going to be a -NAO/-AO and +PDO, that's quite good for cold prospects (as one might expect) for the E US absent a really strong Nina or Nino. Now, if you then say there's a weak Nino to go along with the -NAO/-AO and +PDO, that's even better. If you then say that this weak Nino just followed a Nina and there still is the -NAO/-AO and +PDO, that's the best combo to have for the best chance at a cold winter and even possibly a historically cold one in parts of the eastern US (examples: 1976-7, 1939-40, and 1904-5). That's like 7-7-7 on a slot machine for cold winters.

So, for the purpose of establishing the probablity of what kind of winter we'll have, it really is worth following and this is the thread for it. This is just like when people speculate on whether the NAO, AO, and PDO will be - or + and also with what magnitude.

Furthermore, the recent warming has been VERY impressive and, therefore, worthy of discussion since it could very well make a sig. difference for the upcoming winter. This is about as impressive a warming as has been seen within a week's time during oncoming Ninos of any strength. Very much newsworthy for ENSO geeks!

[Harry]

How much difference is it really going to make if it ends up as warm neutral or sneaks into weak Nino territory per the ONI?

Besides what Larry mentions it may help ( along with a few other things and thus see the winter thread in the New England forum ) give the old pattern ( going back to last winter ) a final kick in the pants outta here. Plus weak nino's following multi year Ninas have either brought decent cold and or snow especially our region unsure about others though.

Weak Nino winters have been the coldest on average by a wide margin for much of the E US and especially for the SE US (an incredible 7 of 11 coldest Atlanta winters were during weak Ninos such as 1976-7 and 1977-8) ...colder than neutral positive on average (which is actually close to normal). The weak Ninos that followed Ninas have ben especially cold on average. So, if we get a -NAO/-AO and a +PDO, look out below! Even if we don't get the +PDO but do get the -NAO, cold prospects would still be good. Just not as good chancewise and intensitywise.

Look at it this way. If you tell me that there's going to be a -NAO/-AO and +PDO, that's quite good for cold prospects (as one might expect) for the E US absent a really strong Nina or Nino. Now, if you then say there's a weak Nino to go along with the -NAO/-AO and +PDO, that's even better. If you then say that this weak Nino just followed a Nina and there still is the -NAO/-AO and +PDO, that's the best combo to have for the best chance at a cold winter and even possibly a historically cold one in parts of the eastern US (examples: 1976-7, 1939-40, and 1904-5). That's like 7-7-7 on a slot machine for cold winters.

So, for the purpose of establishing the probablity of what kind of winter we'll have, it really is worth following and this is the thread for it. This is just like when people speculate on whether the NAO, AO, and PDO will be - or + and also with what magnitude.

Furthermore, the recent warming has been VERY impressive and, therefore, worthy of discussion since it could very well make a sig. difference for the upcoming winter. This is about as impressive a warming as has been seen within a week's time during oncoming Ninos of any strength. Very much newsworthy for ENSO geeks!

Pretty much agree. Besides that this one has been one of the more interesting events to follow especially with not much else going on with the wx recently.

[Abract]

First post, anyone see the latest PDO index for last month? -0.79 up from the -2.21

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Weak Nino winters have been the coldest on average by a wide margin for much of the E US and especially for the SE US (an incredible 7 of 11 coldest Atlanta winters were during weak Ninos such as 1976-7 and 1977-8) ...colder than neutral positive on average (which is actually close to normal). The weak Ninos that followed Ninas have ben especially cold on average. So, if we get a -NAO/-AO and a +PDO, look out below! Even if we don't get the +PDO but do get the -NAO, cold prospects would still be good. Just not as good chancewise and intensitywise.

Look at it this way. If you tell me that there's going to be a -NAO/-AO and +PDO, that's quite good for cold prospects (as one might expect) for the E US absent a really strong Nina or Nino. Now, if you then say there's a weak Nino to go along with the -NAO/-AO and +PDO, that's even better. If you then say that this weak Nino just followed a Nina and there still is the -NAO/-AO and +PDO, that's the best combo to have for the best chance at a cold winter and even possibly a historically cold one in parts of the eastern US (examples: 1976-7, 1939-40, and 1904-5). That's like 7-7-7 on a slot machine for cold winters.

So, for the purpose of establishing the probablity of what kind of winter we'll have, it really is worth following and this is the thread for it. This is just like when people speculate on whether the NAO, AO, and PDO will be - or + and also with what magnitude.

Furthermore, the recent warming has been VERY impressive and, therefore, worthy of discussion since it could very well make a sig. difference for the upcoming winter. This is about as impressive a warming as has been seen within a week's time during oncoming Ninos of any strength. Very much newsworthy for ENSO geeks!

Good information...looks like things are falling in place for a decent shot at a weak Nino. I don't think anyone expected this recent warming to take place.The biggest question is....... how much will this late warming affect the winter pattern? Could it be enough to keep the SE ridge at bay?

[tacoman25]

First post, anyone see the latest PDO index for last month? -0.79 up from the -2.21

Yeah, it went up quite a bit in October. It is very common during severely -PDO years, as 2012 has been, to see the -PDO relax for a month or two in the fall, and then drop again during the winter. Given history, I would be very surprised if the DJF PDO is not lower than -.79. Already this month we have seen the PDO begin to drop again, I believe.

[Isotherm]

Yeah, it went up quite a bit in October. It is very common during severely -PDO years, as 2012 has been, to see the -PDO relax for a month or two in the fall, and then drop again during the winter. Given history, I would be very surprised if the DJF PDO is not lower than -.79. Already this month we have seen the PDO begin to drop again, I believe.

Agreed. You often have a rogue month that sees a significant relaxation before falling again. Given the way we've mirrored the 1950s thus far, I'd expect to see a DJF average PDO of -1.0 or less. We may not see the strongly negative -2 numbers ala 1951-52, but the -PDO certainly seems to be locked in for now. The GOA trough pattern on the ensembles will continue to cool SST's in the northeast Pacific, which should feedback on atmospheric circulation, and continue to produce the dominant -PDO/-PNA couplet through much of this upcoming winter. We often see a period of +PNA in a moderately negative PDO winter, but the research I did shows that the PNA is negative in 82% of cases when the DJF PDO is -1.0 or less. So if we can somehow remain in the 0 to -1 range for PDO values this winter, the chances for significant +PNA periods obviously shoot way up.

[GaWx]

Agreed. You often have a rogue month that sees a significant relaxation before falling again. Given the way we've mirrored the 1950s thus far, I'd expect to see a DJF average PDO of -1.0 or less. We may not see the strongly negative -2 numbers ala 1951-52, but the -PDO certainly seems to be locked in for now. The GOA trough pattern on the ensembles will continue to cool SST's in the northeast Pacific, which should feedback on atmospheric circulation, and continue to produce the dominant -PDO/-PNA couplet through much of this upcoming winter. We often see a period of +PNA in a moderately negative PDO winter, but the research I did shows that the PNA is negative in 82% of cases when the DJF PDO is -1.0 or less. So if we can somehow remain in the 0 to -1 range for PDO values this winter, the chances for significant +PNA periods obviously shoot way up.

The PDO is another reason to follow the Nino/no Nino battle. There have been some very nice flips during the year of an oncoming weak Nino that immediately followed La Nina from solidly -PDO months earlier in that year to a solidly +PDO DJF: 1904-5, 1939-40, and 1976-7. 1951-2 is an example of one that didn't flip to a +PDO. Having had three of these do the flip along with the very impressive Oct. 2012 rise of the PDO tells me that there's still a halfway decent chance to get a +PDO averaged over DJF upcoming. I'm still not saying it is likely by any means, but I'm saying that it isn't far-fetched, especially if we really do get a Nino out of this. The PDO and ENSO seem to feedback on each other. The current

-PDO regime favors fewer strong Ninos and more weaker ones because it is tougher to get stronger ones then. Perhaps the weakening of the -PDO has indirectly lead to the recent ENSO warming. If we can actually get a (weak) Nino, perhaps that will indirectly increase the chance for a +PDO averaged out over DJF. Yes, there is often a temp. pdo warming right after sub -2 months. Then again, I don't think many expected a 1.5 warming. Yes, the pdo warming has stopped and reversed some and the upcoming pattern should keep it from rising back soon. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see if we can get a -EPO back in early to mid Dec. If so, the PDO would then have a great chance to resume its rise.

[tacoman25]

The PDO is another reason to follow the Nino/no Nino battle. There have been some very nice flips during the year of an oncoming weak Nino that immediately followed La Nina from solidly -PDO months earlier in that year to a solidly +PDO DJF: 1904-5, 1939-40, and 1976-7. 1951-2 is an example of one that didn't flip to a +PDO. Having had three of these do the flip along with the very impressive Oct. 2012 rise of the PDO tells me that there's still a halfway decent chance to get a +PDO averaged over DJF upcoming. I'm still not saying it is likely by any means, but I'm saying that it isn't far-fetched, especially if we really do get a Nino out of this. The PDO and ENSO seem to feedback on each other. The current

-PDO regime favors fewer strong Ninos and more weaker ones because it is tougher to get stronger ones then. Perhaps the weakening of the -PDO has indirectly lead to the recent ENSO warming. If we can actually get a (weak) Nino, perhaps that will indirectly increase the chance for a +PDO averaged out over DJF. Yes, there is often a temp. pdo warming right after sub -2 months. Then again, I don't think many expected a 1.5 warming. Yes, the pdo warming has stopped and reversed some and the upcoming pattern should keep it from rising back soon. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see if we can get a -EPO back in early to mid Dec. If so, the PDO would then have a great chance to resume its rise.

Look at the PDO those years though. It wasn't anywhere near as low as it has been this year. There is a strong correlation between summer PDO and the following winter, if it is in a strong state. We are in a strongly -PDO phase, and the only time we've managed an even weakly +PDO winter since 2007 was 2009-10, and that was with a strong Nino.

I understand why you would want to see a +PDO this winter, but the overall evidence makes it quite unlikely.

[GaWx]

Look at the PDO those years though. It wasn't anywhere near as low as it has been this year. There is a strong correlation between summer PDO and the following winter, if it is in a strong state. We are in a strongly -PDO phase, and the only time we've managed an even weakly +PDO winter since 2007 was 2009-10, and that was with a strong Nino.

I understand why you would want to see a +PDO this winter, but the overall evidence makes it quite unlikely.

Yes, I want it, but I also feel I'm being objective about it still having a halfway decent chance to be + in DJF averaged out. I still think it is under a 50% chance, but still about 1 in 3...maybe a little more.

[GaWx]

Folks,

Eyeballing the latest map's anomalies for 3.4 (for 11/16), I see some cooling back vs. yesterday's +1.50. However, I'm roughly estimating that it is still up at ~+1.30-5. Based on Harry's SV #'s, my estimates for today and Sunday 11/11, and my guess that tomorrow will be a little cooler than today (say ~+1.15), I'm estimating that StormVista's weekly average for 11/11-17 will be ~+1.10 to 1.15.

Assuming that the released NOAA 3.4 weekly will be a little below that (based on precedent), I'm thinking that Monday's 3.4 release may be as warm as +1.0! IF that were to occur, it would mean a warming of 0.6 in just one week from +0.4, which would be a larger weekly warming than that for any that occurred during the seven oncoming Ninos between 1991 and 2009 and it would tie for the strongest weekly warming of ANY week since records began in 1990! The current largest warming for any oncoming Nino week is 0.5.

At the very least, I'd think it would rise to 0.8 and likely at least 0.9. Even just a +0.8 would be a big game changer for Nino chances compared to how it looked only one week ago. That would mean that only an average of +0.7 would be needed for the subsequent two Monday reports to get the weekies to average +0.5 for SON and keep the +0.5+ streak going at four trimonths in a row with Dec. still to go to see what the fifth trimonth does. If Monday's weekly turns out to be a +1.0, it would be the warmest week of the year to date, the warmest week since 3/24/2010, warmer than ANY week of the 2004-5 weak Nino, only 0.1 cooler than the same weeks both in 1994 (oncoming moderate Nino) and 1991(oncoming strong Nino), and only 0.2 cooler than the same week in 2006 (oncoming borderline moderate/weak Nino).

So, if Monday's release were to be +1.0, I'd probably raise the odds for a Nino to at least 60%. As it stands now, I'm already raising it from 40% to 50%. This week has represented such a huge move toward a Nino being that just one week ago it was bordering on being declared dead. As a matter of fact, about one week ago I had posted that I could come close to declaring it dead during this upcoming week absent any warming during the current week. As I've been saying, November is such a crucial month.

[Thunderhead]

Thunderhead,

Interesting. Thanks for that tip. It did warm slightly today today but it lags OISST by a lot.

[...]

Hi Larry,

In addition to the tropical instability waves that can cause cooling at individual buoys but not over huge horizontal areas, we could also be dealing with buoys that are simply out of service. When that happens, TAO will fill in the missing data via interpolation if the gaps are small enough. If the gaps are too large, they just leave the space white/blank.

I just checked several buoys on the TAO site. Here's the status of the equatorial buoys:

note: "temperature" refers to ocean temperature -- I did not check air temperature status.

0N, 137E: operational

0N, 147E: operational

0N, 156E: operational

0N, 165E: missing temperature data for upper 100 m of ocean since at least August

0N, 180: apparently missing SST but it does have subsurface data

0N, 170W: operational

0N, 155W: missing temperature data since June 17

0N, 140W: operational, although it appears to be missing data from roughly 25 m to 100 m depths

0N, 125W: missing temperature data since June 4

0N, 110W: missing temperature data since May 1

0N, 95W: missing temperature data since July 3

I also annotated a recent TAO map to show which regions are currently lacking buoy data. I think that I got most buoys that are not reporting data/out of service. One can also get an idea of which buoys are active by looking at the wind vector map -- if no vector is present, it's possible that the buoy is not reporting at the moment.

So, this is another good reason to use OISST because the satellite can obtain data from the regions that are currently not getting measured in-situ. If clouds start to hang out over the equator, we may need to switch to TRMM microwave SSTs because the clouds can contaminate SSTs obtained from infrared signals.

[GaWx]

Thunderhead,

Interesting stuff. All of that tells me that TAO may be pretty useless right now though I'm not sure. Clouds are, of course, cooler than the ground. So, does that mean that cloud related contamination would make the OISST maps look too cold? Or could clouds somehow do the opposite? Is there any chance that there has been cloud contamination causing it to look too warm during these recent strongly warmer days of last week? That would be counterintuitive, but I just want to make sure that we're not being fooled. Do we know for a fact that it has warmed as substantially as OISST suggests?

Regardless, I'm getting kind of excited about tomorrow morning's weekly 3.4 update. It will be quite telling. Is it going to reflect this suggested OISST massive warming, which would confirm a new ballgame, is it going to totally disagree and go with more like the very questionable TAO is suggesting, which would just about kill the Nino chances, or will it be somewhere in between? I don't recall there ever being so much riding on just one week since I started following ENSO very closely around nine years ago.

[Harry]

Folks,

Eyeballing the latest map's anomalies for 3.4 (for 11/16), I see some cooling back vs. yesterday's +1.50. However, I'm roughly estimating that it is still up at ~+1.30-5. Based on Harry's SV #'s, my estimates for today and Sunday 11/11, and my guess that tomorrow will be a little cooler than today (say ~+1.15), I'm estimating that StormVista's weekly average for 11/11-17 will be ~+1.10 to 1.15.

Assuming that the released NOAA 3.4 weekly will be a little below that (based on precedent), I'm thinking that Monday's 3.4 release may be as warm as +1.0! IF that were to occur, it would mean a warming of 0.6 in just one week from +0.4, which would be a larger weekly warming than that for any that occurred during the seven oncoming Ninos between 1991 and 2009 and it would tie for the strongest weekly warming of ANY week since records began in 1990! The current largest warming for any oncoming Nino week is 0.5.

At the very least, I'd think it would rise to 0.8 and likely at least 0.9. Even just a +0.8 would be a big game changer for Nino chances compared to how it looked only one week ago. That would mean that only an average of +0.7 would be needed for the subsequent two Monday reports to get the weekies to average +0.5 for SON and keep the +0.5+ streak going at four trimonths in a row with Dec. still to go to see what the fifth trimonth does. If Monday's weekly turns out to be a +1.0, it would be the warmest week of the year to date, the warmest week since 3/24/2010, warmer than ANY week of the 2004-5 weak Nino, only 0.1 cooler than the same weeks both in 1994 (oncoming moderate Nino) and 1991(oncoming strong Nino), and only 0.2 cooler than the same week in 2006 (oncoming borderline moderate/weak Nino).

So, if Monday's release were to be +1.0, I'd probably raise the odds for a Nino to at least 60%. As it stands now, I'm already raising it from 40% to 50%. This week has represented such a huge move toward a Nino being that just one week ago it was bordering on being declared dead. As a matter of fact, about one week ago I had posted that I could come close to declaring it dead during this upcoming week absent any warming during the current week. As I've been saying, November is such a crucial month.

Not as steep of a drop but a drop. Yesterday was +1.4 and today down to about +1.3.

[Amped]

3.4 is a lot warmer than 1 & 2 and thats all that's matters to us Mid Atlantic weenies.

I put odds of a nino around 40%, with a 90% chance of an 80% chance of a 70% chance of me raising my outlook to a 60% chance next week.

[GaWx]

3.4 is a lot warmer than 1 & 2 and thats all that's matters to us Mid Atlantic weenies.

I put odds of a nino around 40%, with a 90% chance of an 80% chance of a 70% chance of me raising my outlook to a 60% chance next week.

LOL!!

Based on what Harry just provided for Friday and Saturday's 3.4 anom.'s, SV's average for this past calendar week is ~+1.15. That also tells me that it isn't dropping back quickly (at least yet). A decent amount of cooling after such a steep rise was very likely anyway. It is obviously going to take a lot of cooling to get out of Nino territory. With the week very likely starting off above +1.00, another quite warm week is very possible for this upcoming week.

So, a +1.0 for tomorrow's report wouldn't be a surprise at all to me as I've said. Unless something is way off, I'd be quite surprised if it is less than +0.8.

[The_Global_Warmer]

http://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php

That is another SST source.

I am not sure how accurate VS the ones regularly used here. But it does use many satellites.

Information

Information about the figures

The web page shows the sea surface temperature (SST) and anomalies derived from infrared measurements from the polar orbiting satellites. One interpolated field is constructed daily. Only nighttime SST observations are used for the interpolation because these are more representative of the temperature in the upper meters of the water column. One image per day is shown for the last 30 days.

The SST anomalies have been calculated with respect to a mean, which has been derived from observations from 1985 to 2001. They are SST climatology monthly values from the Pathfinder project and temporal interpolation is used between the two nearest months to obtain this days SST climatology. For more information on the monthly climatology, see: www.nodc.noaa.gov/sog/pathfinder4km/

Interpolation method Gaps in the observations due to clouds are filled using a 3-dimensional Optimal Interplation technique (see Høyer and She, 2007). The interpolation scheme uses statistics, which are derived locally and provides the "best possible" estimate of the SST observations, assuming steady state statistics. The mean error of the gridded SSTs is about 0.5-0.7^oC.

Satellite observations

The observations of the sea surface temperature are based upon observations from up to 10 different satellites, measuring in Infrared and Microwave wavelengths. The observations are obtained from the Ocean and Sea Ice SAF project (www.osi-saf.org) and from Group on High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (www.ghrsst.org).

The satellites products are listed below:

Sensor Satellite Resolution (km) AATSR ENVISAT 1 AVHRR (OSI-SAF) NOAA 2 AVHRR (NAVO LAC) NOAA 1 AVHRR (NAVO GAC) NOAA 4 AVHRR METOP_A 1 Modis Aqua 1 Modis Terra 1 AMSR-E Aqua 25 TMI TRMM 25 SEVIRI MSG 5 GOES 5

References

Høyer, J. L. and She, J., 2007. Optimal interpolation of sea surface temperature for the North Sea and Baltic Sea, J. Mar. Sys., Vol 65, 1-4, pp. 176-189, 2007.

Høyer, J. L. and She, J., 2004. Validation of satellite SST products for the North Sea-Baltic Sea region, DMI technical report, 04-11.

Comments and suggestions

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[GaWx]

http://ocean.dmi.dk/...te/index.uk.php

That is another SST source.

I am not sure how accurate VS the ones regularly used here. But it does use many satellites.

Friv,

Thanks for the link. Wow, that is not the least bit impressive as far as showing warming in Nino 3.4! If I were strictly going by this, I would not be getting the least bit excited about the chance of sig. warming being reported tomorrow morning and would be about ready to give it up. Maybe I missed something, but the anomaly loop looks totally "blah". This looks more like the rather steady looking TAO. I'm going to have to assume that this isn't as accurate or sensitive to SST anom. changes in that area being that the weekly Nino reports are based on OISST (SV also uses OISST data), which does show major warming this last week. However, if for some reason tomorrow's update reflects TAO and the link you just provided, it will not show a sig. warming and my excitement about major warming will look deservedly silly in retrospect.

[GaWx]

Folks,

This morning was very strange with regard to the weekly NOAA Nino update. They had asterisks for a good while until just a few minutes ago in place of actual new numbers. Normally, the new number would have been released a couple of hours ago. Also, the full weekly ENSO writeup update has yet to be released as of 9:30 AM. So, I'm educatedly guessing that they saw the OISST data and wouldn't believe what they saw. After some investigation, they must have done one of three things:

a. decided not to believe it and use an alternate source like TAO or whatever; b. adjusted/corrected OISST and used that; or c. arbitrarily assumed slight warming without having anything to back them up.

Anyway, the update was finally released near 9 AM and it has 3.4 at +0.5, which is only 0.1 warmer than the prior week's +0.4. There is absolutely no way that this +0.5 is based on the OISST maps we've been seeing. However, it is totally believable based on TAO as I've been mentioning. This is all very strange!

[Isotherm]

Not sure where SV gets their data from, but it's blatantly obvious from the SSTA maps I'm looking at that we're nowhere near a mdt nino. The latest 3.4 reading isn't much of a surprise as there hasn't been a strong impetus for warming. Additionally, both dynamical and statistical model guidance released only a few days ago have the DJF region 3.4 avg around +0.4c. So unless this ENSO event will cause all guidance to bust, I would honestly be shocked if we end up with a weak nino for DJF.

Both the 30 and 90 day SOI's are positive, and the daily value is very positive, around +18. So to me there's no indication that we'll see anything above warm-neutral ENSO this winter. On top of that, the negative PDO has definitely regained some energy since the October release of the -0.8 or so value.