eastonwx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I'd put the Lehigh Valley at 50/50 mixture as long as you are asking your question as "frozen" vs pure snow. Some AWIPs Euro problems this afternoon, so can't see their soundings. The other two get a sleet look to them eventually plus boundary layer issues once precipitation lessens. Yeah Euro is the coldest of the models, but it did pretty good with the confluence event south of us last weekend. At anyrate all of the models are showing a good frontogenetic burst along the leading edge, right now a consensus average is north of the Lehigh Valley, but its three days away so some n/s wiggle room has to be factored into it. Thanks Tony. Being nearly a life-long resident of the Lehigh Valley, It's interesting to see storms with different p-types between the valley cities to the south, and areas to the north. I, of course, am in the middle. It'll be interesting to see how this one plays out, and like you stated, still time for changes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Euro has been trending 'colder' (not necessarily "southward" as JB put it) compared to everyone else. Here's the wunder clown map for Wednesday...if the Euro is right it could snow into Chesco/Montco for a time. http://wxug.us/kqrf im not a huge fan of those maps...the thickness imho are way to high to support snow, above 546. Lehigh valley north i can see...south of that im leary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Looks like it, probably some ice too. Unlike near the coast, at ABE surface temps stay at freezing from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Haven't seen the soundings yet to check if there's a sneaky warm layer somewhere. Edit: Forgot Matt was in Collegeville. How dare you not know where matt lives. Then bring his hopes up only to be squashed. You should be stripped of your storm mode mod status Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 How dare you not know where matt lives. Then bring his hopes up only to be squashed. You should be stripped of your storm mode mod status Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Since no one is talking about it in the Central PA thread, what does it look like for my area, 30 miles NW and about 500 ft higher? More freezing/frozen, or similar to the LV? you should deff see some frozen precip on the euro...not sure its all snow, but you should atleast get some. The 850 line is just to your south so you are riding the fine line but i would venture to say you are like 75- 80% frozen or freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 you should deff see some frozen precip on the euro...not sure its all snow, but you should atleast get some. The 850 line is just to your south so you are riding the fine line but i would venture to say you are like 75- 80% frozen or freezing. Thx. It's be an interesting couple of nights at work if it pans out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Interesting stuff from the latest HWO: SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH- NORTHAMPTON- 411 PM EST SUN FEB 26 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE SNOW AND SLEET WILL FALL HEAVILY FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE A PLOWABLE EVENT. A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE TWO DAYS SHOULD BE MOSTLY BETWEEN 30 AND 35 DEGREES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 im not a huge fan of those maps...the thickness imho are way to high to support snow, above 546. Lehigh valley north i can see...south of that im leary. 850 supports it. jus' sayin' what the model shows. Either the 1000-850 is uber torchy, which would be unlike a typical CAD scenario, or the Euro is f'd up. Given how the Euro did well with the last storm (first to go colder, snow thump for Poconos) I would lean towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Drag: THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SNOW WILL BE MDT TO BRIEFLY HEAVY FOR A A COUPLE OF HOURS SOMETIME WEDNESDAY...MOST LIKELY IN THE 8AM TO 2 PM TIME FRAME...ESP E PA AND NJ. THAT COULD INCLUDE PHL YOU'LL NOTE OUR FCST HAS A LOT OF MIXED PHASE WORDING. IN TIME THIS WILL BECOME MANAGED BETTER AS WE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT ON PTYPE. RIGHT NOW THE GFS HAS BIASED THIS FCST WARM. WE COOLED IT A BIT MORE THAN THE HPC GUIDANCE AND MUCH MORE THAN 12Z GFS TEMP GUIDANCE. HOW MUCH ICE CAN OCCUR WED AFTN/EVE?...PROBABLY VERY LITTLE EXCEPT IN FORESTED UPSLOPE REGIONS. A MORE EXTENSIVE LIGHT ICING POTENTIAL WILL EXISTS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SHALLOW EASTERLY WIND FORCED LIFT FROM THE INCREASING ENE BL WIND. AGAIN...UPSLOPE REGIONS COOL EASIER. ALSO....BECAUSE OF PROBABLE COLD HIGH PRES LOCKED IN OVER SE QUEBEC...THERE WILL BE A NICE RESOURCE OF BELOW FREEZING BL AIR SEEPING SWWD IN THE NE BL FLOW. COOLING THERMAL PROFILES THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE PRIMARY MIDWEST SHORT WAVE ALONG /COOLING 500MB HEIGHTS/ WITH A DEEPENING EASTERLY ATLC COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AND A PERIOD OF SEEDING FROM PROBABLE CIRRUS ASSTD WITH A NEW DEFORMATION ZONE OF MID LVL LIFT SHOULD CHANGE ANY ICE BACK TO SNOW EARLY IN THE DAY OVER NE PA AND NNJ. SNOW GROWTH...ATTM MODELED SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF 1 INCH/HR LOOKS VERY GOOD WITH IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NEAR 525 MB WITH ONSET OF THE EVENT WED MORNING AND OMEGA RANGING FROM 12 TO 22 MB/SEC DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. SO...WE ALL WANT AN ACCURATE DETERMINISTIC FCST AS FAR IN ADVANCE AS POSSIBLE. HOW MUCH SNOW AND ICE...LETS LEAVE IT WIDE OPEN ON PTYPE AMTS BUT .50 TO 1 INCH FROZEN WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES IN NW NJ/NE PA ARE PROBABLE WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. MULTIPLE MODELS HAVE HEALTHY DOSES OF QPF...BUT PLACE IT DIFFERENTLY DEPENDING ON THEIR TRACKING. OUR FCST GRIDS HAVE 1 TO 4 INCHES THRU 00Z THU IN THE NW PTN OF OUR FA. I AM VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THAT...THIS MAY BE TOO LIGHT. LOW PROB 1 OR 2 INCHES EVEN DOWN TO NEAR PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Just got done reading NYC thread, things are getting interesting with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 18z GFS is colder on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 18z GFS is colder on the front end. yup, looks like some snow at the beginning even down here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The 18z GFS looks like it falls in line with Walt drags post. That front end precip is pretty healthy too. considering events usually start earlier then expected the wed AM commute could soon be interesting for the area and more so lehigh valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 18z GFS is colder on the front end. Let's just say you could have driven Voyager's truck between the 12z GFS forecast soundings and the Euro's, so the GFS colder on the front end is really coming closer to the consensus average. The high is centered fairly far to the northeast, but a front end dump would likely solidify our nwrn cwa remaining at, close around freezing throughout wed/thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 18z GFS is colder on the front end. Maybe an inch or so for the suburbs.. I'd take it even though it would be washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Let's just say you could have driven Voyager's truck between the 12z GFS forecast soundings and the Euro's, so the GFS colder on the front end is really coming closer to the consensus average. The high is centered fairly far to the northeast, but a front end dump would likely solidify our nwrn cwa remaining at, close around freezing throughout wed/thu. Hope Steve knows your talking about his truck. We all know Qtown needs snow but it looks like Poconos at this point should do well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 by hr 72 everyone from abe on south is rain...still doesnt rule out a couple hrs of thump snow before hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Hope Steve knows your talking about his truck. We all know Qtown needs snow but it looks like Poconos at this point should do well? I just looked at the wrf-nnmb sounding for AVP: 0.43" as snow, 0.19" as sleet, another 0.19" as ice and 0.01" as rain. Other than hail, sounds like they'll get all of the other ptypes covered. As Tom posted, the euro sfc low actually trended north, but the cad trended stronger, thus colder overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Hope Steve knows your talking about his truck. I do and it looks like driving back and forth from Hazleton to the Lehigh Valley with that truck may a bit tricky for me on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 verbatim, phl intl sees basically nothing in terms of snow per gfs if you go off soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 yup, looks like some snow at the beginning even down here... Not quite...but closer. http://wxcaster4.com...M-SNOW_78HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 21z SREF is rather cold at all levels at start looks like Philly is at 32-33 degrees at the onset of the Precip Poconos and Allentown stay Mainly wintry precip. as for QPF everyone is just about 0.50+ which for this far out is pretty decent for a mean spread. Lets see what the rest of the models say tonight should be interesting to watch this one unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Not quite...but closer. http://wxcaster4.com...M-SNOW_78HR.gif yeah, i hadnt looked at the soundings yet....close, but not quite for PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Hate to ask, but im gonna do it anyway. Think the poconos , specifically, the ski resorts, stay all snow? thinking about taking a day trip to snowboard some fresh powder. Not too familiar with the local weather up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Hate to ask, but im gonna do it anyway. Think the poconos , specifically, the ski resorts, stay all snow? thinking about taking a day trip to snowboard some fresh powder. Not too familiar with the local weather up there. per nam soundings i80 on north in the pocs should have a good shot of snow with a changeover to some sleet and freezing rain at the end. Looks like 75% of qpf should be snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Here's the clown maps for the NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 EC is milder compared to 12z...tiny burst of snow on the front end just northwest of Philly at the onset and then the snow/no snow line quickly retreats to above the Lehigh Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS (6z v 0z) is not much different in terms of trend. Rain for the city, quick transition over in the immediate burbs...snow to slop/rain in the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS (6z v 0z) is not much different in terms of trend. Rain for the city, quick transition over in the immediate burbs...snow to slop/rain in the Poconos. It did get a smidge warmer. Not much, but probably enough nudge it to mostly rain at places like TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 It did get a smidge warmer. Not much, but probably enough nudge it to mostly rain at places like TTN. 0z was rain at TTN. http://charlie.wxcaster.com/text/GFSSFC/GFS_KTTN.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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