phlwx Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 LOL Euro lol is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I'm calling Bs on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I just ordered this in preparation for next weeks storm. I hope it arrives before the storm does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Because of blogs like this from professional meteorologists and a somewhat dependable weather model. There is no weenie here. Just because there is no teleconnection does not mean it MIGHT happen. I tell you this, last week, many posters were following every single model run like it was a life or death situation. First the GFS 10 days out, then Euro, then back to the GFS and even the JMA and NAM and it ended up the Euro was right 5-10 days out. Now I start a topic on the potential of a storm event from the most reliable weather model we have this winter and from a blog of a pro met http://www.occupyit.us/bobby.php and suddenly I am labeled a weenie and compared to Ji? Come on guys, you must do better than this. Can I say blackballing, ignorance or just p'ode that we did get a biggie snowstorm last week? No disrespect to Bobby, but Ray's completely right...he's not a pro met and shouldn't be advertised as one unless he has a full blown degree. You might want to delete your comment on Facebook about it since Ray's 100% right...jus' sayin' For the record, I don't think he ever graduated from Penn State... otherwise I'm sure it would be mentioned here: http://www.occupyit....es/BobbyBio.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I'm calling Bs on the euro The Euro is a master weenie troll... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I just ordered this in preparation for next weeks storm. I hope it arrives before the storm does. I was going to see if I can borrow one of Adam's blowtorches. I think he has some spares... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I was going to see if I can borrow one of Adam's blowtorches. I think he has some spares... I would think his blowtorches would be out of gas by now, they have been working all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Probably will drop 12-18" in VA and be a cloud storm again up this way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 solely looking at teleconnections this potential has everything stacked against it and i would be shocked if by 12z thurs the euro still has the same solution. Time to troll the weenie group on fb and bring them down to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 solely looking at teleconnections this potential has everything stacked against it and i would be shocked if by 12z thurs the euro still has the same solution. Time to troll the weenie group on fb and bring them down to reality. Too bad the ensembles have the low scooting out at Hatteras otherwise I'd give you that ammo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 No disrespect to Bobby, but Ray's completely right...he's not a pro met and shouldn't be advertised as one unless he has a full blown degree. You might want to delete your comment on Facebook about it since Ray's 100% right...jus' sayin' Done. Thanks Ray is right. Sorry for doubting you. By the way cannot teleconnections change as much as models and aren't models based on those teleconnections? I am having a real problem digesting the fact the Euro can shown HECS yet everyone is claiming the teleconnections are not there? I really thought the Euro has been pretty accurate this far out especially this year. Why are so many doubting the Euro now? Have we been burned too many times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Done. Thanks Ray is right. Sorry for doubting you. By the way cannot teleconnections change as much as models and aren't models based on those teleconnections? I am having a real problem digesting the fact the Euro can shown HECS yet everyone is claiming the teleconnections are not there? I really thought the Euro has been pretty accurate this far out especially this year. Why are so many doubting the Euro now? Have we been burned too many times? There is more accuracy in teleconnection outlooks because they are based on 500mb where model skill is more accurate farther out in time than at the surface. There are hot spots where the models are more accurate globally and can be used to corroborate model outlooks elsewhere which are not as skillful. You'll see e.g.pmdepd/hmd(s) say how the forecast over the conus does/does not "teleconnect" well with the closed low over.... An outlooked 500mb low over Baffin Island does not teleconnect well with a hecs in our area. Plus look at the wavelengths even on today's Euro prog, its awfully short and the pattern is pretty progressive (kind of like last weekend's non-event) which would lean toward a lighter event. The history of the Euro this winter beyond 120 hrs beside this past weekend, as been well not heads and tails above the rest. How much snow did we get on Thanksgiving, Christmas, early January, etc? Even today with the Friday low, its way slower than any other model and a couple of days ago it was land bombing the low through New England (go look at the start of Typhoon Tip's thread) and gave us about 1.5 to 2.5 inches water equivalent. If its still inaccurate with the Friday system, is it going to get more accurate farther out in forecast time? I am not trying to be a debbie downer, but this winter these overly phased euro solutions beyond day4 have not worked. Can it still snow from this system, with that cold high to the north if true, yeah. But the teleconnections would favor a faster moving system, likely trending north (both the nao and pna are outlooked to be in warmer phases) and with less of an impact than the current op Euro would indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 DT has a better chance of learning to spell correctly then the 12Z Euro has of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 solely looking at teleconnections this potential has everything stacked against it and i would be shocked if by 12z thurs the euro still has the same solution. Time to troll the weenie group on fb and bring them down to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 2011-2012 Winter: Bringing Weenies hopes down one storm at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 DT has a better chance of learning to spell correctly then the 12Z Euro has of verifying. phenomenal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 There is more accuracy in teleconnection outlooks because they are based on 500mb where model skill is more accurate farther out in time than at the surface. There are hot spots where the models are more accurate globally and can be used to corroborate model outlooks elsewhere which are not as skillful. You'll see e.g.pmdepd/hmd(s) say how the forecast over the conus does/does not "teleconnect" well with the closed low over.... An outlooked 500mb low over Baffin Island does not teleconnect well with a hecs in our area. Plus look at the wavelengths even on today's Euro prog, its awfully short and the pattern is pretty progressive (kind of like last weekend's non-event) which would lean toward a lighter event. The history of the Euro this winter beyond 120 hrs beside this past weekend, as been well not heads and tails above the rest. How much snow did we get on Thanksgiving, Christmas, early January, etc? Even today with the Friday low, its way slower than any other model and a couple of days ago it was land bombing the low through New England (go look at the start of Typhoon Tip's thread) and gave us about 1.5 to 2.5 inches water equivalent. If its still inaccurate with the Friday system, is it going to get more accurate farther out in forecast time? I am not trying to be a debbie downer, but this winter these overly phased euro solutions beyond day4 have not worked. Can it still snow from this system, with that cold high to the north if true, yeah. But the teleconnections would favor a faster moving system, likely trending north (both the nao and pna are outlooked to be in warmer phases) and with less of an impact than the current op Euro would indicate. Thank you for the excellent explanation and the time to you took to explain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 There is more accuracy in teleconnection outlooks because they are based on 500mb where model skill is more accurate farther out in time than at the surface. There are hot spots where the models are more accurate globally and can be used to corroborate model outlooks elsewhere which are not as skillful. You'll see e.g.pmdepd/hmd(s) say how the forecast over the conus does/does not "teleconnect" well with the closed low over.... An outlooked 500mb low over Baffin Island does not teleconnect well with a hecs in our area. Plus look at the wavelengths even on today's Euro prog, its awfully short and the pattern is pretty progressive (kind of like last weekend's non-event) which would lean toward a lighter event. The history of the Euro this winter beyond 120 hrs beside this past weekend, as been well not heads and tails above the rest. How much snow did we get on Thanksgiving, Christmas, early January, etc? Even today with the Friday low, its way slower than any other model and a couple of days ago it was land bombing the low through New England (go look at the start of Typhoon Tip's thread) and gave us about 1.5 to 2.5 inches water equivalent. If its still inaccurate with the Friday system, is it going to get more accurate farther out in forecast time? I am not trying to be a debbie downer, but this winter these overly phased euro solutions beyond day4 have not worked. Can it still snow from this system, with that cold high to the north if true, yeah. But the teleconnections would favor a faster moving system, likely trending north (both the nao and pna are outlooked to be in warmer phases) and with less of an impact than the current op Euro would indicate. good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 EC is warm, primary through the lakes, secondary develops over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 EC is warm, primary through the lakes, secondary develops over us. didn't have to wait til 12z for my BS call to hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 If the threat hasn't reappeared by 12z, I vote for closing this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 7 pages and counting on this so called week away event in the NYC board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 time to see if the 12z euro will comply with the 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 12Z EC has plenty of precip during this time period. Of course, its all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 12Z EC has plenty of precip during this time period. Of course, its all rain. Yea, But I like the snow maps @ 150-162hrs on wunderground. LOL 150hrs LOL love clown maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I change my vote for closing this thread since there definitely is a storm threat - it's just a watery threat much, much more than a white threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Congrats Spencer, IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I change my vote for closing this thread since there definitely is a storm threat - it's just a watery threat much, much more than a white threat. this is just going to turn into another banter thread, so it really should just be closed put out of its misery... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 this is just going to turn into another banter thread, so it really should just be closed put out of its misery... Let's not head in that direction. You can see what earth did in NYC thread with all the beatings and he is not a red mod tagger like our Ray . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Let's not head in that direction. You can see what earth did in NYC thread with all the beatings and he is not a red mod tagger like our Ray . Only during STORM MODE right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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