Hoosier Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I was curious to see how often a High Risk is issued in the Lakes and/or Ohio Valley so I began working on a project a while back. With the help of convectiveoutlook.com, I was able to go all the way back into the late 1980's. I believe I have all of the high risks that have been issued since the late 1990's, but I'm fairly confident that I am missing at least a few from before then. Because of potential missing dates, the data below should be interpreted as the minimum number of high risk days that have occurred for a particular area. As we all know, SPC issues several day 1 convective outlooks each day. It is possible to be in several high risk outlooks on the same day. For purposes of this post, a day with 1 high risk outlook is no different than a day with 4. In some cases, the high risk boundary barely crossed a state line. Nonetheless, it was counted as a high risk day for the state. Anyway, here is the list of high risks by state: Illinois: 11/15/89 6/2/90 6/16/92 6/17/92 11/27/94 5/13/95 4/19/96 7/1/97 4/15/98 6/14/98 4/8/99 4/11/01 10/24/01 11/10/02 5/10/03 5/24/04 5/30/04 11/15/05 3/12/06 6/7/07 2/5/08 4/24/10 10/26/10 5/25/11 Indiana: 11/15/89 6/2/90 6/17/92 11/27/94 4/19/96 4/15/98 10/24/01 11/10/02 5/10/03 5/30/04 11/15/05 10/26/10 5/25/11 Ohio: 6/2/90 6/17/92 4/19/96 10/24/01 11/10/02 5/10/03 5/30/04 11/15/05 10/26/10 Wisconsin: 6/2/90 6/17/92 8/27/94 7/1/97 4/11/01 6/11/01 4/16/02 7/31/02 5/30/04 6/7/07 Michigan: 6/2/90 6/17/92 8/27/94 10/24/01 7/31/02 5/10/03 5/30/04 6/7/07 10/26/10 Kentucky: 11/15/89 6/2/90 11/27/94 4/19/96 4/15/98 6/14/98 10/24/01 11/10/02 5/4/03 5/5/03 5/10/03 5/30/04 11/15/05 4/7/06 2/5/08 4/24/10 5/1/10 10/26/10 5/25/11 At least two days featured a high risk in parts of all 6 states: June 2, 1990 and May 30, 2004 6/2/90 (thanks to baroclinicity for this image) 5/30/04 (clipped the extreme southwest corner of Michigan) To narrow things down a bit, I divided the region into equal size boxes. One box is larger than the rest but covers less US area. Boxes go from left to right starting at the top, i.e. the northwestern most box is box 1 and the southeastern most box is box 11. The numbers indicate the number of days that a high risk outlook touched any part of that box. As you can see, the southwestern most box (box 8) has experienced the greatest number of high risk days, with areas farther northeast experiencing steady declines. While the boxes provide another perspective, they can be misleading. Any particular location in each box likely hasn't experienced anywhere near the number of high risk days. With that in mind, here is a list of high risk days for selected cities: Chicago: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 5/10/03, 5/30/04 Milwaukee: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 8/27/94 Indianapolis: 6/2/90, 4/19/96, 10/24/01, 5/10/03, 5/30/04, 11/15/05, 10/26/10, 5/25/11 Detroit: 6/2/90, 10/24/01, 10/26/10 Columbus: 10/24/01, 11/10/02, 5/10/03, 10/26/10 Louisville: 11/15/89, 6/2/90, 11/27/94, 4/19/96, 10/24/01, 11/10/02, 5/10/03, 5/30/04, 11/15/05, 10/26/10, 5/25/11 St. Louis: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 5/13/95, 4/19/96, 4/15/98, 6/14/98, 4/8/99, 10/24/01, 5/10/03, 5/24/04, 5/30/04, 3/12/06, 5/25/11 Grand Rapids: 6/2/90, 6/17/92 Toledo: 6/2/90, 10/24/01, 10/26/10 Fort Wayne: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 4/19/96, 10/24/01, 5/30/04, 11/15/05, 10/26/10 Madison: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 8/27/94, 7/1/97, 4/11/01, 6/11/01, 5/30/04, 6/7/07 Cedar Rapids: 6/2/90, 6/16/92, 6/17/92, 7/1/97, 4/8/99, 4/11/01, 3/12/06, 6/7/07 Evansville: 6/2/90, 11/27/94, 4/19/96, 4/15/98, 10/24/01, 5/10/03, 5/30/04, 11/15/05, 10/26/10, 5/25/11 Springfield, IL: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 5/13/95, 4/19/96, 4/8/99, 4/11/01, 10/24/01, 5/10/03, 5/24/04, 5/30/04, 3/12/06 Green Bay: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 8/27/94, 6/7/07 La Crosse: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 8/27/94, 7/1/97, 6/11/01, 6/7/07 Moline: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 5/13/95, 7/1/97, 4/11/01, 5/10/03, 5/24/04, 5/30/04, 3/12/06, 6/7/07 and this thread wouldn't be complete without some homerism... Lafayette: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 4/19/96, 10/24/01, 5/10/03, 5/30/04, 11/15/05, 10/26/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 nice work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Very nice. Patrick Marsh did something here for the whole US (and with moderate risks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 nice work! I just realized I forgot to post the high risk dates for each box. Maybe later tonight or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 Very nice. Patrick Marsh did something here for the whole US (and with moderate risks) Yep, I'm aware of that. He lists some dates that aren't in Beau's high risk archive (presumably some of which would cover part of the area) which is why I think I'm missing some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Gonna go out on a limb and say we see at least one in this region this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Yep, I'm aware of that. He lists some dates that aren't in Beau's high risk archive (presumably some of which would cover part of the area) which is why I think I'm missing some. Btw I didn't mean that to come across like "its already been done" kinda way in case thats how it sounded ahaha. Yours is more detailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 Btw I didn't mean that to come across like "its already been done" kinda way in case thats how it sounded ahaha. Yours is more detailed No problem. I didn't take it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Gonna go out on a limb and say we see at least one in this region this year. I will double the money here, I say we have 2 that occur somewhere within the GLOV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Outstanding Hoosier. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 I will double the money here, I say we have 2 that occur somewhere within the GLOV. Based on past history, it's very likely that there will be at least 1. Only 4 years didn't have a high risk somewhere in the area - 1991, 1993, 2000, 2009. One of the days I wonder about is 3/27/91 but I can't find any info on what risk level there was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Based on past history, it's very likely that there will be at least 1. Only 4 years didn't have a high risk somewhere in the area - 1991, 1993, 2000, 2009. One of the days I wonder about is 3/27/91 but I can't find any info on what risk level there was. That is one I am unsure of, but I remember that being one hell of an outbreak. Just looking back at the NCDC stuff, Kalamazoo County had 4.50" hail among all the tornadoes that occurred in MI that day/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 That is one I am unsure of, but I remember that being one hell of an outbreak. Just looking back at the NCDC stuff, Kalamazoo County had 4.50" hail among all the tornadoes that occurred in MI that day/evening. Yeah it was a pretty decent outbreak. O'Hare had an 84 mph wind gust, the highest on record there, although that isn't the official Chicago wind record because the official site has moved around over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I never realized there is almost an even split between spring/summer, and fall High Risks. Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I never would have thought Indiana would have had 4 high risks in November and 2 in October in Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I never would have thought Indiana would have had 4 high risks in November and 2 in October in Indiana. I did a research paper about Indiana's fall severe weather season when I was at Ball State. It was definitely very interesting to see how many major outbreaks we had in October and November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I never would have thought Indiana would have had 4 high risks in November and 2 in October in Indiana. The one in October of 2010 was a month after I moved to Louisville.... that was an insane storm system. A tornado dropped down less than a mile northwest of my workplace at the locks on the Ohio River. There was quite a bit of damage around the area. That said, thanks for this thread... very interesting! I find it intriguing that Louisville...and the state of Indiana as a whole... went 4 years without seeing a high risk between 2005 and 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 Here are the high risk days corresponding to each region on the map in the first post. Again, these are the days where a high risk outlook touched any part of the box. Region 1 (northern MN/northern WI/western UP): 5 6/17/92 8/27/94 4/16/02 7/31/02 6/7/07 Region 2 (central/eastern UP): 3 6/17/92 8/27/94 6/7/07 Region 3 (southeast MN/northeast IA/WI): 11 6/2/90 6/16/92 6/17/92 8/27/94 7/1/97 4/11/01 6/11/01 4/16/02 5/30/04 6/7/07 6/5/08 Region 4 (far eastern WI/MI): 6 6/2/90 6/17/92 8/27/94 10/24/01 5/30/04 6/7/07 Region 5 (much of eastern MI): 4 6/2/90 6/17/92 10/24/01 10/26/10 Region 6 (parts of IA/IL/MO): 20 6/2/90 6/16/92 6/17/92 5/13/95 4/19/96 7/1/97 4/15/98 6/14/98 4/8/99 4/11/01 10/24/01 5/4/03 5/10/03 5/22/04 5/24/04 5/30/04 11/15/05 3/12/06 6/7/07 5/25/11 Region 7 (parts of eastern IL/IN/southern MI/extreme western OH): 13 6/2/90 6/17/92 5/13/95 4/19/96 4/15/98 4/8/99 4/11/01 10/24/01 5/10/03 5/30/04 11/15/05 10/26/10 5/25/11 Region 8 (most of OH/parts of southeast MI): 8 6/2/90 6/17/92 10/24/01 11/10/02 5/10/03 5/30/04 11/15/05 10/26/10 Region 9 (parts of MO/southwestern IL/western KY and TN/small part of AR): 28 11/15/89 6/2/90 6/16/92 6/17/92 11/27/94 5/13/95 4/19/96 4/15/98 4/16/98 6/14/98 4/8/99 5/4/99 4/11/01 10/24/01 11/10/02 5/4/03 5/5/03 5/10/03 5/24/04 5/30/04 11/15/05 3/12/06 4/7/06 2/5/08 4/24/10 4/30/10 5/1/10 5/25/11 Region 10 (southeastern IL/southern IN/central KY and TN): 21 11/15/89 6/2/90 11/27/94 4/19/96 4/15/98 4/16/98 6/14/98 4/8/99 4/11/01 10/24/01 11/10/02 5/5/03 5/10/03 5/30/04 11/15/05 4/7/06 2/5/08 4/24/10 5/1/10 10/26/10 5/25/11 Region 11 (extreme southern OH/eastern KY and TN and adjacent eastern area): 10 11/15/89 4/19/96 6/14/98 10/24/01 11/10/02 5/5/03 5/10/03 5/30/04 11/15/05 10/26/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Very nice. Patrick Marsh did something here for the whole US (and with moderate risks) Severe alley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 I will double the money here, I say we have 2 that occur somewhere within the GLOV. One down and we are only at March 3rd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 One down and we are only at March 3rd... Actually at this point at this early in the year with a major tornado outbreak already verified in the area, I'm beginning to think more than two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hertz Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Sorry if unallowed bump, but wanted to update days (not all affected states may be included): 3/2/12 IN KY OH 6/12/13 IL IN OH - Potentially only High Risk with tornado probability under 15% in large part of area 11/17/13 IL IN MI OH - Furthest north high risk in November previous 11/15/05 included IN OH but not MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Andy Wehrle and I have a lot of info here http://www.convectiveoutlook.com/highrisk/spc.htm It is a little sketchy because the site had to be reconstructed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Very strange that 2 out of the 3 high risk events that occured in SEMI were in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hertz Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 And there was just one in South MI in November this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 This is the first year I can ever remember that we've been under 2 high risks and 2 PDS tornado watches (June 12 and November 17). Both events luckily spared the QC, and this area as well, but definitely sort of an interesting tidbit for the QCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hertz Posted April 20, 2014 Share Posted April 20, 2014 Updating for through 2013 by cities (2012 and 2013 days): Chicago: 6/12/13, 11/17/13 Milwaukee: No additional daysIndianapolis: 11/17/13Detroit: No additional daysColumbus: No additional daysLouisville: 3/2/12St. Louis: No additional daysGrand Rapids: No additional daysToledo: No additional daysFort Wayne: 6/12/13, 11/17/13Madison: No additional daysCedar Rapids: No additional daysEvansville: 3/2/12, 11/17/13 Springfield, IL: 11/17/13Green Bay: No additional daysLa Crosse: No additional daysMoline: 6/12/13 Now also going by state: IN and OH had a portion of the state in High Risk on all three days in the list above. IL and MI on 6/12/13 and 11/17/13. WI was just barely clipped on 6/12/13. KY on 3/2/12. IA had small portion in High on 6/12/13. MO was actually clipped (but in the extreme western potion so not sure if it counts) on 4/14/12, which was much further west High Risk than the other three. Oh and forgot to mention, IA was also clipped in the far west on 4/14/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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