uncle W Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 it could linger for a third year or become an el nino...I'll start with el nino years...there are 19 el nino years since 1950...hopefully next year will be one...these are the years and strength... winter...peak ONI...peak period... 1977-78.....0.7.....ONDJF 1976-77.....0.8.....OND 1969-70.....0.8.....OND 1951-52.....0.8.....SON 2004-05.....0.9.....ASO 1963-64.....1.0.....ONDJ 1968-69.....1.0.....DJFM 2006-07.....1.1.....ONDJ 1986-87.....1.3.....JFM 1994-95.....1.3.....NDJ 2002-03.....1.5.....OND 1965-66.....1.6.....OND 1987-88.....1.6.....JASO 1957-58.....1.7.....DJF 2009-10.....1.7.....DJF 1991-92.....1.8.....DJF 1972-73.....2.1.....NDJ 1982-83.....2.3.....NDJF 1997-98.....2.5.....ONDJ the top seven had ...three great winters...three very good ones and one mediocre... the middle six had one great winter...three mediocre and two duds... the bottom six had two great winters...one good and three duds... Some forecasts are for a neutral enso next winter...I'll post the neutral years another time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 top seven weakest...the middle six and the six strongest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Nice breakdown Unc. 2009-10 was excellent for us (esp me south of the city) due to the extreme blocking. It's no secret weak ninos are the snow weenie's pot of gold. They are our best ENSO state for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 yes, I agree. very nice Uncle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 The Niña has been weakening rapidly and is down to 0.6C as per Don Sutherland's thread. There's been a significant warming off the South American coast though the PDO continues to grow more negative with colder waters surfacing off of California and into the Gulf of Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 yes, I agree. very nice Uncle. That weak nino temp anomaly map makes my mouth water. I would begin sobbing uncontrollably if you told me a weak nino was a guarantee next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 That weak nino temp anomaly map makes my mouth water. I would begin sobbing uncontrollably if you told me a weak nino was a guarantee next winter. Let's just get a colder 2009-2010... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 the 22 neutral years... the eight lowest years... year....peak index 1983-84.....-0.9.....OND 2008-09.....-0.8.....DJF 2005-06.....-0.7.....NDJF 1966-67.....-0.6.....FMA 1961-62.....-0.6.....ASON 1959-60.....-0.5.....JAS 1980-81.....-0.5.....JFM 1985-86.....-0.5.....DJF 1978-79.....-0.4.....MJJASO 1981-82.....-0.4.....JJAS 1996-97.....-0.4.....NDJF 1989-90.....-0.3.....JJASON 1960-61.....-0.2.....SONDJFMA 2001-02.....-0.1.....ONDJF 1990-91......0.4.....NDJF 1993-94......0.4.....MAMJ 1952-53......0.5.....FMAMJJ 1953-54......0.5.....DJF 1958-59......0.5.....JFM 1979-80......0.5.....ONDJF 2003-04......0.6.....OND 1992-93......0.8.....AMJ the lowest eight winters had one great winter...three good ones...three mediocre...one dud... the middle six winters had one great winter...two good ones...three duds... the higest eight winters had two great winters...one good...one mediocre...four duds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 The ENSO state won't matter much if we don't get back into the -AO/NAO phase that had been so frequent every winter other than 07-08 the last few years. This winter IMO was destined to be a +NAO early due to the relatively widespread below normal SSTs between Greenland and Iceland headed into mid-Autumn. The question is what would have happened to that pool of water had we not had the Stratospheric ice age event that ultimately led to those regions going insanely cold and enhancing the coolness of that area. Its highly possible we may have had a +NAO through mid December or so and then may have seen a reversal but that ice age across the northern regions basically killed any chance of that and also resulted in the +AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I got this from the main thread on this forum. Interesting . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 the La nina years...weak to strong...21 years... year.....peak ONI index... 1962-63.....-0.7.....ONDJ 1995-96.....-0.7.....ONDJFM 2000-01.....-0.7.....NDJ 1956-57.....-0.9.....SOND 1967-68.....-0.9.....JFM 1974-75.....-0.9.....OND 1950-51.....-1.0.....NDJF 1971-72.....-1.0.....OND 1984-85.....-1.1.....NDJ 1964-65.....-1.2.....SOND 1954-55.....-1.2.....ASO 1970-71.....-1.3.....DJFM 2007-08.....-1.4.....DJFM 2010-11.....-1.4.....SONDJ 1998-99.....-1.6.....NDJF 1999-00.....-1.6.....NDJF 1949-50.....-1.7.....DJF 1975-76.....-1.7.....ONDJ 1988-89.....-1.9.....ONDJ 1955-56.....-2.0.....OND 1973-74.....-2.1.....NDJ top six weakest...Middle eight...seven strongest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Great stuff. Can u post the same thing but with precip this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 Great stuff. Can u post the same thing but with precip this time? neutral... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 el nino... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 la nina... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Thank you for taking the time to response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Just out of curiosity, what makes a weak nino so good for cold in the northeast? I know a nino excites the STJ, but how would that cool things so dramatically in its weak phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Just out of curiosity, what makes a weak nino so good for cold in the northeast? I know a nino excites the STJ, but how would that cool things so dramatically in its weak phase? Same thing for a weak nina too? Is the weak ENSO signal more in line with a -NAO/AO? What makes a weak ENSO so favorable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Just out of curiosity, what makes a weak nino so good for cold in the northeast? I know a nino excites the STJ, but how would that cool things so dramatically in its weak phase? Negative NAO's are dominant in weak ninos - that's the primary factor for the cold. El Nino generally creates a more favorable stratospheric environment with a weaker vortex, promoting more high latitude blocking than La Nina events. Additionally, strong ENSO tends to overwhelm the pattern for much of the CONUS (assuming you don't have a raging -NAO/AO like 2009-10). Hence why weak to mod El Ninos are very good for the mid atlantic up through SNE. Tendency for blocking, active sub tropical jet stream, yet the Nino is not powerful enough to throw a ton of warmth into the regime. So essentially it comes down to being a conducive preset condition for the development of neg NAO patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Negative NAO's are dominant in weak ninos - that's the primary factor for the cold. El Nino generally creates a more favorable stratospheric environment with a weaker vortex, promoting more high latitude blocking than La Nina events. Additionally, strong ENSO tends to overwhelm the pattern for much of the CONUS (assuming you don't have a raging -NAO/AO like 2009-10). Hence why weak to mod El Ninos are very good for the mid atlantic up through SNE. Tendency for blocking, active sub tropical jet stream, yet the Nino is not powerful enough to throw a ton of warmth into the regime. So essentially it comes down to being a conducive preset condition for the development of neg NAO patterns. Yeah that makes sense, the AO/NAO tandem is the only thing that could deliver cold on that level. If you dont mind explaining more, how do ENSO conditions alter stratospheric circulation near the poles in this case, since were talking about a weak vortex, how does the ENSO slow it down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 bump for any insight on the above question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Negative NAO's are dominant in weak ninos - that's the primary factor for the cold. El Nino generally creates a more favorable stratospheric environment with a weaker vortex, promoting more high latitude blocking than La Nina events. Additionally, strong ENSO tends to overwhelm the pattern for much of the CONUS (assuming you don't have a raging -NAO/AO like 2009-10). Hence why weak to mod El Ninos are very good for the mid atlantic up through SNE. Tendency for blocking, active sub tropical jet stream, yet the Nino is not powerful enough to throw a ton of warmth into the regime. So essentially it comes down to being a conducive preset condition for the development of neg NAO patterns. Isotherm, Whereas I agree about the significant cold influence of a -NAO tendency in weaker El Nino's, I think that there is a good bit more to it than just the -NAO tendency toward making weak Nino's so cold on average in the E US. I feel that there is a good bit of a tropical forcing contribution to E US cold from the weak Nino, itself. My reasoning is explained here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 15, 2012 Author Share Posted April 15, 2012 the JFM oni index was -0.6 making for an official five tri monthly index -0.5 or lower...I'm not sure what is used for the official index value...I've been using the 1970-2000 index...Is it still relevent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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