prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 GFS caved towards a more northern track. One other thing I have noticed the last few days is the cold air across Canada is not quite as favorable (i.e., not as cold) as the PV is farther N and farther E. Important for potential energy purposes. 850 temps depiced on the 12Z GFS two days ago verifying Monday morning: And todays 12Z run verifying same time: Yeah, this probably won't be much of anything by the time the event unfolds. I shouldn't of started a thread this early knowing how this winter has been. Event tomorrow may be a little interesting just to my south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Yeah, this probably won't be much of anything by the time the event unfolds. I shouldn't of started a thread this early knowing how this winter has been. Event tomorrow may be a little interesting just to my south. I wouldn't say it won't be interesting, it just won't be a bomb like we all would have wanted. It is definitely going to be an odd cyclone though since it is taking on more of a frontal wave orientation. Closed GOM hurts big here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 I'm riding p06 of the 12z gfs ensembles for the weekend event. Screw the operational. That will last until the next run of ensemble members. I'll then ride the best looking one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 0z runs tonight still target ND & n MN with the heaviest snows...ggem nails FAR over to DLH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 0z runs tonight still target ND & n MN with the heaviest snows...ggem nails FAR over to DLH Do you have any maps for your GGEM? Can you also link me back to your site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 Do you have any maps for your GGEM? Can you also link me back to your site? GGEM maps will update in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 I'll be glad to take a miss to my north this weekend and take the CMC 984 bomb next wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I'll be glad to take a miss to my north this weekend and take the CMC 984 bomb next wed. I like the second storm threat as well. One thing with that is the GOM will be wide open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Just glancing at 96 hr ECMWF looks similar to the CMC with a strong bent back CCB. Still looks great for portions of Nodak and N MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 Just glancing at 96 hr ECMWF looks similar to the CMC with a strong bent back CCB. Still looks great for portions of Nodak and N MN. 0z euro has the heaviest qpf north of fargo...around 0.50 for gfk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 I like the second storm threat as well. One thing with that is the GOM will be wide open. Dream storm next week on the CMC & ECM. ECM dumps 2.23 qpf on msp, all snow. CMC snow to rain but high qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I like the second storm threat as well. One thing with that is the GOM will be wide open. Dream storm next week on the CMC & ECM. ECM dumps 2.23 qpf on msp, all snow. CMC snow to rain but high qpf Impressive height falls, sharp temperature gradient, good moisture feed off the Gulf, this would be the storm of the year if it materializes. GFS is still pretty meh in terms of cyclogenesis, although it does bring light snow in N IA and far S MN and WI for 2 days straight along the frontal boundary, which isn't too bad. ECMWF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I am watching. The storm for the northern plains is still going to be decent, but not nearly as impressive as day 7 progs suggested. The CO low threat is already within day 5, but it is dependent upon low amplitude phasing. But yes, verbatim ECMWF that would be a historic storm for the Twin Cities, and it would be the first legit Colorado Low this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Ok I do want to turn this back to the day 4 storm across the northern plains. Even though this is coming in weaker than projected a few days ago, it will still be the best storm of the winter up there. One thing nobody should underestimate is the power of dry, brittle snow and long duration wind across the plains. Still looking at a high end WW Advisory possible Winter Storm Warning across Nodak and northern MN. Anywhere from 4-7" of the dry stuff with blowing/drifting an issue...especially Nodak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 DLH calling heaviest snow between 7AM and 1PM Sunday in NE MN, lake enhancement looking likely up along the north shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 12z 84hr CMC, ECM about the same & with qpf placement...nice event to unfold in ND & n MN this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 0z NAM coming in flat and fast. While the NAM, UK/EC/GFS have suggested this the past two days that this will come in faster and weaker with more upper level energy as the western trough occludes along the coast hanging back. Turning more into a regional frontogenesis threat than any significant cyclone. That said, still looking good for Nodak and N MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 0z NAM coming in flat and fast. While the NAM, UK/EC/GFS have suggested this the past two days that this will come in faster and weaker with more upper level energy as the western trough occludes along the coast hanging back. Turning more into a regional frontogenesis threat than any significant cyclone. That said, still looking good for Nodak and N MN. Did cmichweather move to the coast yet? NAM gives GFK around 9" via cobb output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Did cmichweather move to the coast yet? NAM gives GFK around 9" via cobb output. Yeah, he said he was in Detroit right now. 9" seems a bit high, but 5-7" is a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Going to be a close call here in southern Manitoba. Could see the main band staying just to my south (I'm basically right along the MB/ND/MN border.) I'm expecting about 5-10cm here but wouldn't be surprised to see 15cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 414 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... .A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO MONTANA AND SASKETCHEWAN SATURDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...IT DOES APPEAR THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH THIS SYSTEM. COMPUTER MODELS DISAGREE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SET UP AND EXACT SNOW TOTALS WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THE SNOW AND TURN NORTHERLY AS THE STORM PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. WINDS WILL NOT GET TOO STRONG...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. * SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...FIRST STARTING IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE SNOW WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MONDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. * POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS. BUT EXACT TOTALS AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST WILL FALL IS UNCERTAIN. * WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH EASTERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH SUNDAY...TURNING TO THE NORTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 340 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... .HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND. SNOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACROSS THE FAR WEST SATURDAY EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD BY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 52. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH MAY CAUSE THE AXIS OF THE GREATEST SNOWFALL TO SHIFT. TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD REMAIN UP TO DATE ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM. ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE FAR WEST SATURDAY EVENING...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY. * MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. * SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Going to be a close call here in southern Manitoba. Could see the main band staying just to my south (I'm basically right along the MB/ND/MN border.) I'm expecting about 5-10cm here but wouldn't be surprised to see 15cm. fwiw: HPC has your area covered in their day 3 snow prob map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Guidance keeps showing a slow trend towards flatter with a surface low tracking across southern ND. That would favor the northern 2/3s, and for once, GFK is not on the edge of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Guidance keeps showing a slow trend towards flatter with a surface low tracking across southern ND. That would favor the northern 2/3s, and for once, GFK is not on the edge of it. cmichweather chose a wrong time to move...GFK does well with this event and probably next weeks as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 cmichweather chose a wrong time to move...GFK does well with this event and probably next weeks as well. I called it a week ago, GFK will now have the greatest end of winter in their history. I arrive in Detroit with a WSW posted and we are sitting at 1.6" right now. I am a snow jinx, 2 years ago I came home for Christmas and GFK had a 2 day snowfall of nearly 20 inches...... O'well. GGEM for the 2nd storm next week looks insane i'm sure qpf totals would be near 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Rain now mixing with wet snow at 400' a.s.l. in Vancouver area (B.C.) with the weekend storm developing on the coast, looks to me like this one gives many parts of AB, SK, s MB, ND and n MN a good 8-15 inches in blizzard conditions. For the guy in Altona, would expect that estimate to keep rising and might reach 20-25 cms. The axis of heaviest snow will run something like Red Deer AB to Moose Jaw SK to Minot ND to Hibbing MN. I also like the next storm in the series for ND, se MB and nw MN, could be similar to the historic March 1966 storm. 15-25 inches potential, or 40-60 cms in metric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 250 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2012 ...SNOW AND WIND TO AFFECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... .HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND. SNOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS BOWBELLS...KENMARE...MINOT...BOTTINEAU...ROLLA AND CARRINGTON. LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS...3 TO 5 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED FOR WILLISTON...WATFORD CITY...GARRISON...BISMARCK...JAMESTOWN AND ASHLEY. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM BEACH AND DICKINSON...TO LINTON. A SECOND...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK..AND WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NDZ002>005-010>013-022-023-025-250500- /O.UPG.KBIS.WS.A.0002.120226T0000Z-120227T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBIS.WS.W.0002.120226T0600Z-120227T1200Z/ BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE- SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWBELLS...MOHALL...BOTTINEAU...ROLLA... NEW TOWN...MINOT...TOWNER...RUGBY...MCCLUSKY...HARVEY... CARRINGTON 250 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. * SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 SREF 50 hpa probs on dendritic growth zone. Nice warm air advection regime ahead of this low should create a nice near isothermal layer and high ratios north of the low level cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bennyc50 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Grand Forks has had 14.4 inches of snow since Dec 1st (26.9 Normal). I have a bad feeling that we'll get more snow in these next 2 storms than we did all winter. Just when I was getting used to the lack of snow and spring feeling. That said, if it's gonna snow, let's go out with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Grand Forks has had 14.4 inches of snow since Dec 1st (26.9 Normal). I have a bad feeling that we'll get more snow in these next 2 storms than we did all winter. Just when I was getting used to the lack of snow and spring feeling. That said, if it's gonna snow, let's go out with a bang. Whoa, who is this guy. I never thought I would ever see you post here. Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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