prinsburg_wx Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Models have been showing for awhile now the potential of a major winter storm/blizzard affecting the northern plains for the 26-27th. IMO the GFS has been most consistent in placement and strength of the system the last few runs while the ECM has been flip flopping like a dying fish with intensity & placement. Right now, the dakotas, central/northern MN and into WI look to recieve heavy snow & strong winds. This system has the potential to be the biggest event of the season for the northern plains and whats encouraging for this system is we won't have to deal with split flow issues and gulf moisture shoudn't be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Looks promising for something around here finally. I'm a snow lover, but I'll take any sort of major system at this point. Without looking at it too deeply... 18z GFS is slower than the 12z, but takes a similar track. As you said the ECMWF has been all over the place, but with the 12z has a similar track to the GFS, if not better if you are looking for snow in the southern half of MN. Overall, it is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I am obviously interested even if it isn't in my backyard. In terms of potential energy available, this has more than any junk we have seen all winter long. The track isn't conducive to strong moisture flux off the GOM, but I don't care. I would obviously favor a CO Low, but these types of systems can deliver. ONe of Nodak's most epic blizzards the last 5 years took a similar track sa this although that had even more cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 Another solution is the 12z CMC, although probably unlikely but gives ND the brunt of the heavy snow. CMC has my area around 50 sunday afternoon while BIS at 17 with a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 GFS still looks great. A slightly unusual track, but that really doesn't matter. It is scary to think what this storm could do with a GOM that had decent moisture availability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 0Z CMC with a warmer solution for portions of MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 Best GFS plot for MN that i've seen all winter. CMC still north and warmer...0z UKIE also came in further north takes the L from Rapid City to w WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Where are you getting the UKMET images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 Where are you getting the UKMET images? http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=000&map=na〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 http://meteocentre.c...&map=na〈=en Thanks, yeah that looks like junk although it would probably still support a nice frontal band across portions of Nodak and northern MN. In terms of solutions, tough call here because the system off the NE coast day 3-4 will play a role in this storms development...and models having issues with that. Also highly reliant on how far S the western trough digs...UKMET obviously has a much less amplified trough and ejects a weak lead anomaly. We won't have much information on lead anomaly strength/depth for another 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 fwiw: the 0z gfs mean agrees with the op but like baro mentioned, it will be a couple more days before models get a good handle on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 fwiw: the 0z gfs mean agrees with the op but like baro mentioned, it will be a couple more days before models get a good handle on this. ECMWF is running. Honestly I am excited to have a storm to track. What a pathetic winter this has been. This is literally the first storm to form along the polar front all winter across the northern plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 ECMWF is running. Honestly I am excited to have a storm to track. What a pathetic winter this has been. This is literally the first storm to form along the polar front all winter across the northern plains. I'm not a big euro fan so far this winter but yet i'm up waiting for it...lol. I'm excited also but to have the GFS hold that track for 5 more days is asking alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 The ECMWF through 72 looks nearly identical to the UKMET. Almost scary how close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 The ECMWF through 72 looks nearly identical to the UKMET. Almost scary how close. close at 96 to the ukie also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Through 96 hrs the ECMWF is definitely heading N more like the UK/CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 ND gets nailed again on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Much of northern MN is lit up. ECMWF looks like it will continue tracking NE then it occludes and heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 Yet another major flip on the 0z euro...according to the wunderground maps, the euro takes the L right over my house...looks like the dakotas & c/n minnesota are winners this run. Euro does paste 0.51 qpf for my area but any further north then it's over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 Through 96 hrs the ECMWF is definitely heading N more like the UK/CMC. Closer look at the CMC at 120, still north of the ECM but even the GFS is slowly trending north each run. 4/5 days out but it's looking to be a close call for my area as it stands now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Really liking where i sit now for this storm. Definitely seems like the best potential so far this winter. I've seen my fair share of snowstorms back east but i'm still waiting to see my first true plains blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Really liking where i sit now for this storm. Definitely seems like the best potential so far this winter. I've seen my fair share of snowstorms back east but i'm still waiting to see my first true plains blizzard. They are epic. Right now this won't be a true blizzard, but it has significant storm potential. Not enough cold air and trending towards a lead wave which won't have the breadth/depth to support extreme cyclogenesis given the completely closed GOM. As for a comparison...a true plains blizzard is honestly hard to beat. I would go as far as saying they are far more interesting if only because the extreme blowing/drifting you can get. You just don't see that potential with most Nor'easters. Of course northern plains blizzards lack the incredible moisture fluxes associated with nor'easters which contribute heavily to extreme cyclogenesis, but they make up for it with higher ratio snows (on average) and blowing/drifting over massive areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Were you on the EC for Boxing Day? Probably one of the most epic winter events I have witnessed in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 They are epic. Right now this won't be a true blizzard, but it has significant storm potential. Not enough cold air and trending towards a lead wave which won't have the breadth/depth to support extreme cyclogenesis given the completely closed GOM. As for a comparison...a true plains blizzard is honestly hard to beat. I would go as far as saying they are far more interesting if only because the extreme blowing/drifting you can get. You just don't see that potential with most Nor'easters. Totally agree. I throw around the term blizzard a bit too much. I'd just love to see a moderate snowfall with higher ratios and the blowing/drifting that you don't really see as much with Nor'easters. Either way it should be a fun couple of days tracking this storm. Whether or not it directly affects GFK remains to be seen, but it's looking increasingly likely that someone will see an impressive storm this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxnut Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Closer look at the CMC at 120, still north of the ECM but even the GFS is slowly trending north each run. 4/5 days out but it's looking to be a close call for my area as it stands now. Where are you getting those CMC model images from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 12z GFS not as impressive but the 12z CMC has a big hit for ND & n MN. Model madness continues as the models can't even nail down tomorrows possible event for southern MN and it's 24-30hrs out. 12z CMC 108 & 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 Where are you getting those CMC model images from? My own images i make with the gempak software Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxnut Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 My own images i make with the gempak software Darn.. I was hoping it was from a website. Nice images. Watching this storm with interest for possible impacts on southern Manitoba. Right now, model consensus/ensembles point to a ern ND/nrn MN event, but it won't take much of a NW nudge to impact us north of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 Darn.. I was hoping it was from a website. Nice images. Watching this storm with interest for possible impacts on southern Manitoba. Right now, model consensus/ensembles point to a ern ND/nrn MN event, but it won't take much of a NW nudge to impact us north of the border. Euro keeps going north the last 2 runs so i guess it's possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 GFS caved towards a more northern track. One other thing I have noticed the last few days is the cold air across Canada is not quite as favorable (i.e., not as cold) as the PV is farther N and farther E. Important for potential energy purposes. 850 temps depiced on the 12Z GFS two days ago verifying Monday morning: And todays 12Z run verifying same time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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