Wx4cast Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Plenty of teleconnections and model suites coming into some consensus/agreement on a potential widespread synoptic scale wind storm for NY and New England. Of the model suites the EC is the most intense followed by the UK. GGEM and GFS least intense. NAM ( 21-06z) is rapidly deepening the low > Low looks to take the climatological favored track across the northern shore of LO towards QBC with deepening during Friday. Low track would tend to favor the output from GFS, GEFS and NAM vs EC (initially too far south) and GGEM (too far east) at this point in time. Deepening of the cyclone appears likely as phasing of northern and southern streams occurs late Friday through Saturday. GEFS Anomalies indicate a -3 to -4 deviation on the surface pressure field across the eastern lakes and Ontario to NYS and New England. Wind anomalies from the WEST +2 to +3 @ 850 hPa and and WSW +3 to some +4 @250 hpa. Using CSTAR research on synoptic windstorms across the NEUS this end of the week storm fits patterns from this research to become a bit more confident in a potential major windstorm. There is also some forecast data that is similar to the Feb 17, 2006 windstorm that pummeled the region causing widespread long duration power outages and also brought a squall line of severe thunderstorms with some large hail and extremely high winds (gusted to over 90 mph in Saratoga Springs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Plenty of teleconnections and model suites coming into some consensus/agreement on a potential widespread synoptic scale wind storm for NY and New England. Of the model suites the EC is the most intense followed by the UK. GGEM and GFS least intense. NAM ( 21-06z) is rapidly deepening the low > Low looks to take the climatological favored track across the northern shore of LO towards QBC with deepening during Friday. Low track would tend to favor the output from GFS, GEFS and NAM vs EC (initially too far south) and GGEM (too far east) at this point in time. Deepening of the cyclone appears likely as phasing of northern and southern streams occurs late Friday through Saturday. GEFS Anomalies indicate a -3 to -4 deviation on the surface pressure field across the eastern lakes and Ontario to NYS and New England. Wind anomalies from the WEST +2 to +3 @ 850 hPa and and WSW +3 to some +4 @250 hpa. Using CSTAR research on synoptic windstorms across the NEUS this end of the week storm fits patterns from this research to become a bit more confident in a potential major windstorm. There is also some forecast data that is similar to the Feb 17, 2006 windstorm that pummeled the region causing widespread long duration power outages and also brought a squall line of severe thunderstorms with some large hail and extremely high winds (gusted to over 90 mph in Saratoga Springs). 12z GFS says whoa. Forget the warmth, winter has arrived and let the snows begin the next couple of weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 21, 2012 Author Share Posted February 21, 2012 12z GFS says whoa. Forget the warmth, winter has arrived and let the snows begin the next couple of weeks Mix to start mostly rain some backlash snow...could be one heck of an upslope event for Taconics, Greens and Berkshires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 18z gfs is colder/more wintry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 It's something to watch at least. We'll see if there is any snow on the back end to displace the robins in the yard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 18z GFS dumps 12+ in the dacks: http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=ENX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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