strongwxnc Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0556 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN AL...CENTRAL/NRN GA...AND UPSTATE SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 241156Z - 241330Z A TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR ISSUANCE FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN AL THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN GA INTO UPSTATE SC...AND POTENTIALLY INTO WRN NC. PROBABILITY OF WW ISSUANCE BY 13-14Z IS 60-70 PERCENT. IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUATION OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH NRN AL...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AL/WRN GA SINCE 1045Z. COLD AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 850 MB HAS RESULTED IN A WEAKENING OF THE CAP THAT WAS EVIDENT ON THE 24/00Z BHM/ATL SOUNDINGS AND NOW ERODED PER 12Z BHM SOUNDING. THUS...GIVEN A MOIST WARM SECTOR /PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1-1.5 INCH/ AND LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM...THE MUCAPE IS ALREADY NEAR 1000 J/KG. DESPITE A LACK OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TODAY...UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150+ KT UPPER JET IN THE TN/OH VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT FURTHER TSTM DEVELOPMENT ENEWD FROM THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST SHORT TERM MODELS WHICH SUGGEST A CONTINUED INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING FROM AL THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN GA TO UPSTATE SC/NC. STRENGTHENING WSWLY DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS /60-70 KT AT 700 MB AND 80-100 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL MAINTAIN STRONG BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..PETERS.. 02/24/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Moderate hatch is up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 SPC AC 241256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN/ERN VA SWD INTO CNTRL/ERN NC AND SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT IL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AS IT CONTINUES E/NE TO THE LWR GRT LKS THIS EVE AND INTO ME/NB EARLY SAT. ASSOCIATED MID LVL JET STREAK NOW CENTERED OVER THE OZARKS/LWR OH VLY ALSO SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY...WITH 500 MB SWLY WINDS INCREASING TO AOA 110 KT OVER THE CAROLINAS/VA. THE MAIN SFC LOW SHOULD DEEPEN NNEWD FROM OH TO LK ONTARIO...WITH A SECONDARY CENTER POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG STNRY FRONT OVER MD/DE. AS THE OH LOW DEEPENS...ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE E/SE ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY AFTN. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SW ACROSS THE S ATLANTIC CSTL PLN BY EVE...AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS STRONG TO SVR TSTMS. ...SOUTHEAST TO MID-ATLANTIC TODAY/EARLY TNGT ... COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WIND FIELD OVERSPREADING A MODESTLY UNSTABLE...GRADUALLY MOISTENING WARM SECTOR WILL YIELD AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS WITH DMGG WIND AND TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC CSTL PLN TODAY. WHILE THE MIDWESTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN LARGELY POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT CONTINUES ENEWD...CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME SUBSTANTIALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SWEEPS ENE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC HEATING AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION/MOISTENING AT 700 MB...SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN/ELIMINATE EXISTING WARM SECTOR CINH AND SUPPORT INCREASING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SCTD CONVECTION NOW PRESENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THE DYNAMICAL PART OF THIS PROCESS ALREADY MAY BE UNDERWAY OVER THE SW PART OF SVR RISK AREA...GIVEN RECENT STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION/STORMS IN AL/GA. THE AL/GA TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER TIME NEWD INTO NC/VA. DEVELOPMENT IN THE CAROLINAS AND VA WILL BE ENCOURAGED BY INFLOW OF MORE MOIST AIR /PW AOA 1.5 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LWR 60S F/ FROM THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST...AND BY CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSING E FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS IN KY/TN. 50-60 KT SWLY LLJ BENEATH STRENGTHENING MID/UPR LVL FLOW WILL YIELD 70+ KT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR. ASSUMING THE PRESENCE OF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...LONG...SLIGHTLY HOOKED HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELL STORMS/SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF BOTH SWATHS OF DMGG WIND AND TORNADOES. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER PARTS OF SRN/ERN VA SWD INTO CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...WHERE HEATING SHOULD BE GREATEST INVOF LWR TROPOSPHERIC WIND MAX. THE STORMS EVENTUALLY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO BROKEN LINES...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS EXTENDING THE SVR THREAT TO THE CST BY EARLY EVE. ..CORFIDI/JIRAK.. 02/24/2012 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1309Z (8:09AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Its going to be be very close as to whether or not I get into this line of training storms currently across north central ga. I fear it might go just to the south, at least the first part of it..which would suck..I'm ready for some storms and still the need rain. Will be curious to see if the higher winds this afternoon/early evening pan out. GSP forecasting the possibility of 50 mph winds. Rather odd to see GSP having a wind advisory up while FFC limits it to the mountains. FFC often issues wind advisories much more often than gsp while gsp issues lake wind advisories outside the mountains probably 9 out of 10 times when ffc has those general wind advisories. Models have higher 850mb winds to the east today (as high as 65 knots) across the central carolinas) GSP notes however the higher winds could be after the frontal passage and even talks about the chance of a high wind warning, which is pretty unusual for them to issue outside the mountains. Winds are often high in these situations (post frontal) which is why I'm a bit curious as to why ffc didn't bite. . Winds are very light right now as higher 850mb winds have shifted east for now so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Just got off work walked outside saw the clear skies and lots of sun and knew the mod upgrade was coming....now time for a nap so I can be ready to go, gotta get the kid from school so chasing not really a option unless it is pretty close. Is this the first mod risk this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Looks like the building line is gonna barely miss us to the south.....one cell severe warned now. Mod risk up for the eastern Carolinas and SE Virginia this afternoon.....be safe out there, the jet looks particularly nasty with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Its going to be be very close as to whether or not I get into this line of training storms currently across north central ga. I fear it might go just to the south, at least the first part of it..which would suck..I'm ready for some storms and still the need rain. Will be curious to see if the higher winds this afternoon/early evening pan out. GSP forecasting the possibility of 50 mph winds. Rather odd to see GSP having a wind advisory up while FFC limits it to the mountains. FFC often issues wind advisories much more often than gsp while gsp issues lake wind advisories outside the mountains probably 9 out of 10 times when ffc has those general wind advisories. Models have higher 850mb winds to the east today (as high as 65 knots) across the central carolinas) GSP notes however the higher winds could be after the frontal passage and even talks about the chance of a high wind warning, which is pretty unusual for them to issue outside the mountains. Winds are often high in these situations (post frontal) which is why I'm a bit curious as to why ffc didn't bite. . Winds are very light right now as higher 850mb winds have shifted east for now so we'll see. Both the NAM and GFS hover around 40 kts at the top of the mixed layer post fropa. Downward momentum transfer with CAA should get gusts near that to the surface, especially considering the strength of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Low cumulus clouds are really racing across the sky this morning...rarely see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Moderate hatch is up... Impressive. Very strong low level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Tornado watches up in parts of S.C. and Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Tidbits from the watch box. Going to be a very interesting afternoon. DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL AXIS OF CONFLUENCE AS REGION IS GLANCED BY SE SIDE OF POTENT...AMPLIFYING IL UPR TROUGH.. WHILE STORMS TO THIS POINT HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SFC-BASED. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW TO MID LVL WIND FIELD AND ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS/BOWS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR TORNADOES AND SWATHS OF DMGG WIND. SEVERAL TORNADOES ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 And....tornado watch in western NC until 4 p.m. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY ASHE AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE CABARRUS CALDWELL CASWELL CATAWBA CHEROKEE CLAY CLEVELAND DAVIE GASTON GRAHAM HAYWOOD HENDERSON IREDELL JACKSON LINCOLN MACON MADISON MCDOWELL MECKLENBURG MITCHELL POLK ROCKINGHAM ROWAN RUTHERFORD STOKES SURRY SWAIN TRANSYLVANIA UNION WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN YANCEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I'm sure we'll get one in central and eastern NC, too. But thought it was weird that western NC got one already when the outlook looks worse for central and eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I'm sure we'll get one in central and eastern NC, too. But thought it was weird that western NC got one already when the outlook looks worse for central and eastern NC. Eastern NC's threat is going to be later on today. Western NC's threat is more immediate.......c'mon mannnnn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Just got off work walked outside saw the clear skies and lots of sun and knew the mod upgrade was coming....now time for a nap so I can be ready to go, gotta get the kid from school so chasing not really a option unless it is pretty close. Is this the first mod risk this year? we are still socked in the clouds/fog here at the beach, my hunch is the severe misses us on the immediate coast. edit: soon as I spoke, the sun popped out. lets see if this stuff burns off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 From Peachtree and likely many other offices around Southeast: PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 950 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012 ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS ISSUES...ALL SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE NOT APPEARING ON OUR WEB SITE NOR ON SPC WEB SITE. THESE PROBLEMS ARE CURRENTLY BEING WORKED ON. IN THE MEAN TIME...TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. PLEASE TUNE TO YOUR LOCAL TELEVISION STATION AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS AND UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjpayne44 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Just got off work walked outside saw the clear skies and lots of sun and knew the mod upgrade was coming....now time for a nap so I can be ready to go, gotta get the kid from school so chasing not really a option unless it is pretty close. Is this the first mod risk this year? I agree. If I could go chasing today, my initial destination would be in the Goldsboro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Tidbits from the watch box. Going to be a very interesting afternoon. Huge area of 0-1 km shear above 40 kts already in place, and shear will only be increasing through the day. Even the brief spin ups will easily have the capacity to be EF2 or greater in strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 From Peachtree and likely many other offices around Southeast: PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 950 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012 ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS ISSUES...ALL SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE NOT APPEARING ON OUR WEB SITE NOR ON SPC WEB SITE. THESE PROBLEMS ARE CURRENTLY BEING WORKED ON. IN THE MEAN TIME...TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. PLEASE TUNE TO YOUR LOCAL TELEVISION STATION AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS AND UPDATES. That is a nightmare.Good thing the ITOs are still around to troubleshoot this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 According to TWC severe maps.......Tornado warnings are up for Greene, Morgan, and Putnam counties in eastern Georgia ATTM. **edit** now includes Hancock, Taliaferro, Warren, and Wilkes co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 According to TWC severe maps.......Tornado warnings are up for Greene, Morgan, and Putnam counties in eastern Georgia ATTM. **edit** now includes Hancock, Taliaferro, Warren, and Wilkes co. They're getting through to GR2Analyst too. Of course mine won't download the data here at the office. I'm seriously better off with my internet at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Alabama: * AT 917 AM CST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO EAST OF JACKSON APPROXIMATELY 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GROVE HILL...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 They're getting through to GR2Analyst too. Of course mine won't download the data here at the office. I'm seriously better off with my internet at home. Hope they get everything up and running before this afternoon for the Carolinas.....not that the general public is glued to the SPC or NWS regional sites, but it would still be horrible timing on a volatile day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Alabama: * AT 917 AM CST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO EAST OF JACKSON APPROXIMATELY 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GROVE HILL...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. A Head Start school there sustained roof damage according to a report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Via Reed Trimmer on FB 0-1 km helcity values of 400-500 m2/s2 in the eastern Carolinas by 3-5 pm ahead of the front. Potential for significant tornadoes there this afternoon. This could be a MAJOR tornado outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Watches and warnings should be back up on the SPC site now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Sun has been out all day here in Greenville, NC; seems prime for severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Don't like the look of that storm just west of Pine Hill, AL. Very nice signature on velocity. Strong possibility a Tornado is active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moose4 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Via Reed Trimmer on FB Yikes. Definitely keeping an eye out this afternoon. I know it's not scientific but walking outside this morning to go to work (68 degrees at 8 am), the air just had that "feel" to it, like when your grandparents would just look around at a clear sky and declare authoritatively, "storm's coming"...and they always seemed to be right. I know that sounds crazy with all the skilled professional mets on this board and all the technology and science at everybody's fingertips nowadays, but that's how it felt this morning. I guess there's no scientific explanation for it, but... *shrug* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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