SouthernNJ Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Would not be entirely shocked to see a TOR for this storm as it moves between Nicholson and Athens. FFC has now stated that the storm has very noticeable rotation, more so than earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Not bad rotation, storm has a decent amount of hail also. The red areas show hail on dual-pol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Would not be entirely shocked to see a TOR for this storm as it moves between Nicholson and Athens. FFC has now stated that the storm has very noticeable rotation, more so than earlier. Would not surprise me either. FFC has issuing warnings about a county ahead of the storm now. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1209 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA OGLETHORPE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA * UNTIL 1245 AM EST * AT 1206 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NICHOLSON...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ATHENS...ILA...HULL...WINTERVILLE...DANIELSVILLE...COLBERT... ARNOLDSVILLE...COMER...CRAWFORD...LEXINGTON AND CARLTON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. ALTHOUGH CURRENT DATA DOES NOT INDICATE THE EXISTENCE OF A TORNADO...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 Fatality being reported from GA, per forum at Talkwx... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Radar showing strong inflow into a circulation is what concerns me usually. At 1210 EST, the radar showed somewhat of an inflow shape on reflectivity, while also showing the storms hail intensity had lessened a little. I have studied storms that I have followed over the past year or so, and about 5 or 6 of these type of storms went on to produce either a tornado or destructive straight-line winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 New day 1: DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND DEEP SOUTH... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS EWD ON THU...AIDING IN AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID-MO VALLEY BY EVENING AND REMAIN POSITIVELY-TILTED AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRI MORNING. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE INVOF IL/IND BORDER BY 00Z...WITH A W/E-ORIENTED WARM FRONT SHIFTING NWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS LK ERIE...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS E/SEWD ACROSS THE MS/TN VALLEYS AND WRN GULF COAST IN THE EVENING...BEFORE REACHING THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND CNTRL GULF COAST BY 12Z/FRI. ...OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST... IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS...STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WLYS HAVE ENVELOPED THE RESIDUAL WARM SECTOR FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH MODEST BACKING TO SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE N-CNTRL CONUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES...THIS TYPE OF REGIME SHOULD SERVE TO LIMIT THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE BENEATH AN EXPANDING EML. EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE VARY MARKEDLY WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE MOISTURE RETURN TOWARDS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THE NAM AND WRF-NMM/ETA-BASED MEMBERS OF THE SREF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/ECMWF AND WRF-ARW/RSM MEMBERS OF THE SREF...WHICH RESULTS IN SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN BUOYANCY PROFILES. NEVERTHELESS...VIGOROUS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD YIELD TSTM INITIATION INVOF SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. HERE...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND AT LEAST MEAGER INSTABILITY WOULD PROMOTE A RISK FOR ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. WITH SRN EXTENT...CONFIDENCE LESSENS ON TSTM INITIATION AS STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT LARGELY REMAINS N OF THE OH VALLEY. BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS MAY RESULT IN TSTMS FORMING SWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. EVEN WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SEVERE THREATS POSSIBLE. TOWARDS THE CNTRL GULF COAST...GUIDANCE IS LARGELY CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING AN EML THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BUT MODEST INSTABILITY AND VEERING/WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE MARGINAL SEVERE RISK RELATIVE TO FARTHER N. ..GRAMS/LEITMAN.. 02/23/2012 Wouldn't be surprised if the risks were expanded westward if a more NAM-like solution comes into fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 FFC says they will send a survey crew to investigate the damage in Floyd county to see if there was a tornado that occurred. The radar did not show a whole lot in the area of question, but this is the same area where both an EF-2 and EF-3 happened in December without a TOR as well. Must be something to do with the mountains and how the radar beam interacts with them. It is a long way from where Rome is located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NrnILStormChaser Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Honestly I like the warm front play in S. IN. The 0z NAM was kind of bullish on CAPE IMO, but did show some fairly decent instability near Evansville. The 4 KM WRF 0z breaks out a cluster of storms in the area. Maybe a couple of mini-sups? If I had to chase tomorrow I would be around Seymour, IN. I like that area a hell of a lot better than any other area tomorrow. Give me a nice warm front play any day. Marginal setup but if I were local I would be watching sfc obs and mesoanalysis like a hawk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Fatality being reported from GA, per forum at Talkwx... The fatality was a woman who had a heart attack as the storm was moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 FFC says the NAM has missed the boat... drying us out too much... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1025 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012 .UPDATE... CURRENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS SCATTERED CLOUDS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AND A MORE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECK IN COLUMBUS...EAST INTO MACON. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS TO REPRESENT THIS. CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE HIGHER THAN FORECAST. AS SUCH...POPULATED THE GRIDS WITH THE CURRENT 12Z RUC DEWPOINTS THAT WERE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THIS MEANT THAT SOME AREAS SAW AN INCREASE OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE IN DEWPOINT TEMPS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE UNREALISTICALLY DRYING US OUT THIS AFTERNOON...AS SUCH BELIEVE THAT THE 06Z NAM MIGHT BE UNDER REPRESENTING THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. WILL WAIT FOR 12Z GUIDANCE TO BETTER PIN DOWN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPS TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT WARMING TRENDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Looks like forcing is going to be the issue down here, dewpoints fairly high and its really warmed up as well....pockets of CAPE close to 1000 already showing up in central Georgia. Whether we get a good trigger is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed Stough Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 It will be interesting to see how the upper feature meshes with the surface feature later today and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I am inclined to believe the NAM with its dry forecast this afternoon/evening, not really seeing a trigger for convection except the front later tonight/tomorrow AM. The RUC and HRRR keep trying to break out precip but it is rather spotty and light looking. So if we get severe it will probably be of the morning variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 FFC says they will send a survey crew to investigate the damage in Floyd county to see if there was a tornado that occurred. The radar did not show a whole lot in the area of question, but this is the same area where both an EF-2 and EF-3 happened in December without a TOR as well. Must be something to do with the mountains and how the radar beam interacts with them. It is a long way from where Rome is located. As suspected, a tornado was confirmed: EF-1 from eastern city of Rome to 5 miles east of Rome. 3.25 miles path length and max 95 mph winds. Worst structure damage was the store and a mobile home, both lost their roof. Indirect fatality was a 75 year old female who suffered a heart attack after the storm passed the area, FFC did not have much on their rafar (or Huntsville's for that matter) indicating a tornado in either velocity or reflectivity. I tracked the cluster from Gadsden to Athens, and it showed signs of rotating frequently, but rarely to a point justifying a TOR. However, the one thing that they could have done better was the SVR for Floyd Co could have had the "severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes with no advanced warning" statement because of its rotating history in Northeastern Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 NAM did a good job today drying us out, dewpoints have come down since this morning. FFC still expecting favorable parameters late in the evening to overnight for severe weather here but somethings gonna have to break the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 From the 33/40 blog With dynamic forcing approaches from the west, the cap should break sometime between 8:00 and 10:00 p.m… and showers and storms will form. Ultimately a line of storms will form late tonight and move through the state; the primary threat will come from hail and strong, gusty winds with this line, but one or two isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out completely. Seems like now our main window for strong to severe storms will come from about 9:00 p.m. until 3:00 a.m., with the highest chance of seeing a severe storm along and north of I-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 And from the RAH Facebook page... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 This was the day 2 outlook to go with that image: DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE APPEARS LIKELY TO BREAKDOWN AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW BEGINNING TO LIFT AROUND ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY...DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS ...AN AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH...WITH EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES...IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND THE LINGERING CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO PROBABLY WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF BASIN. A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE ACCOMPANYING THE EASTERN TROUGH LIKELY WILL MIGRATE FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...WITH SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF ADVANCING OFFSHORE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST AREAS AT 12Z FRIDAY...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MOISTENING IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...COUPLED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS...SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. ...EASTERN GULF STATES THRU SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST... LINGERING SPREAD AMONG THE MODEL DATA CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLVING PATTERN...AND CONCERN ABOUT THE DEGREE OF THE POTENTIALLY DRYING DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT...ARE CONTRIBUTING TO CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE... PARTICULARLY THE NAM...IS SUGGESTIVE OF CONSIDERABLY GREATER POTENTIAL THAN DEPICTED BY THE CURRENT OUTLOOK...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THE NAM/SREF INDICATE A GOOD LIKELIHOOD THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTENING WILL OCCUR AND BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPE REACHING 500 J/KG. IF THIS BECOMES THE CASE...GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...ONE OR MORE BROKEN LINES OF STORMS SEEM PROBABLE...IN REGIME WHERE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STRONG AND SHEARED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS OF 50-60+ KT. POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP FOR...AT LEAST... FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...AND POTENTIALLY QUITE STRONG...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. ..KERR.. 02/23/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Looks like mostly showers everywhere and a few thunderstorms in Alabama. NWS Jacksonville COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA AT 12Z FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG SW FLOW WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS BEING POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY SE GA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THUS LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER OVER NE FL AS THE FRONT PUSHES S BY LATE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Latest HRRR breaking out some intense convection across AL/GA late tomorrow morning/afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 ! http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 ! http://www.emc.ncep....yle/spcprod/00/ That...looks nasty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 We certainly are not out of the woods with this one yet: DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL/MO BORDER WILL UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS E/NEWD AND REACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 00Z. ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS TO OZARK PLATEAU WILL STRENGTHEN WITH A BELT OF INTENSE SWLYS AOA 120 KT ARCING FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AT 00Z. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL SHIFT NEWD FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN THE CHESAPEAKE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH E/SEWD AND WILL STRETCH SWWD FROM THE CHESAPEAKE LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE ERN SEABOARD /OUTSIDE OF THE FL PENINSULA/ DURING THE EVENING. ...MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST... THE COMBINATION OF INTENSE KINEMATIC FIELDS OVERSPREADING A MODEST BUT SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR SHOULD YIELD AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD FORM BY 12Z THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...AS A SHARP COLD FRONT IMPINGES UPON A PLUME OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY OBSERVED GPS AND 00Z TLH RAOB PW VALUES NEAR 1.5 IN/. ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS DOWNSTREAM WITHIN A BROADENING WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR INITIALLY AROUND 60 KT...A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. WITH TIME...KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN /PARTICULARLY FROM 700 MB AND HIGHER ALOFT/...PROMOTING RATHER FAST STORM MOTION AND LIKELY AIDING IN THE ORGANIZATION OF ONE OF MORE BROKEN LINES OF STORMS RACING TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A BROAD ZONE OF 60-90 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AMIDST CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION MAY YIELD FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...AND POTENTIALLY QUITE STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THE MOST INTENSE SPEED SHEAR SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONCENTRATED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...850 MB WINDS STRENGTHENING TO AOA 50 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES. STILL...THE EXPECTATION OF MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMITING INSTABILITY AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK ATTM. ..GRAMS/MOSIER/LEITMAN.. 02/24/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Tomorrow could get nasty for us in the Carolina's tomorrow. Of course, I would of thought that the Ohio Valley would of gotten some pretty decent storms today, but they really didn't get much in the way of anything. Is tomorrow just more conducive for severe weather then it was today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Tomorrow could get nasty for us in the Carolina's tomorrow. Of course, I would of thought that the Ohio Valley would of gotten some pretty decent storms today, but they really didn't get much in the way of anything. Is tomorrow just more conducive for severe weather then it was today? Moisture return problems helped limit the svr threat in the OV today. Wind profiles will be more favorable today and capping further south will be less of a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Moisture return problems helped limit the svr threat in the OV today. Wind profiles will be more favorable today and capping further south will be less of a problem. That makes sense, thanks! The upside to this outbreak is that it will be during the day and not at night when people are sleeping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Not expecting much this far west. GL down east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I think having this high probability around CAE is not warranted. I understand they're covering all bases, but even the SIM NAM radar breaks the line up as it approaches this area. I'm so used to all these "risks" never materializing around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 433 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WISE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... CITY OF NORTON IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 500 AM EST * AT 426 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BENHAM. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... NORTON...WISE...PARDEE...POUND...COEBURN AND ST. PAUL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 NWS JACKSONVILLE WINDY AND WARM TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON... .SHORT TERM... TODAY...THE AREA WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A STRONG LLJ OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...AS LOW AS 2500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. DECENT MIXING PROFILES (FOR FEBRUARY) WILL ALLOW STRONG WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH AND ISOLATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH. ISOLATED DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WITH WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WHERE LIFTED INDICES ARE PROGGED TO BE AS HIGH AS -5. ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST. THE LINE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE EVEN IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL ALSO BE A STORY TODAY AS TEMPS SOAR INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...CAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB AS HIGH AS 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. Wow we are already going to see winds up to possibly 50mph without the storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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