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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion III


Marion_NC_WX

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It is interesting that the 0z ECMWF still has a minor snowfall taken literally at 1 to 3 inches for primarily the NC Mountains on Monday 05MAR12. The 500mb level trough is sharp and stout and comes close to closing off over NC. It is at least something to watch for another light snow event in the High Country.

Note: Can't post maps as they are vendor copyright protected.

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It is interesting that the 0z ECMWF still has a minor snowfall taken literally at 1 to 3 inches for primarily the NC Mountains on Monday 05MAR12. The 500mb level trough is sharp and stout and comes close to closing off over NC. It is at least something to watch for another light snow event in the High Country.

Note: Can't post maps as they are vendor copyright protected.

Good thing Wunderground has them for free...

vih46.png

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Can you share a link for those burger?

Look on the right hand side and change model to ECMWF and map type to snowfall. It only goes out to 180. It also doesn't show accum. snowfall only how much falls between 6 hour increments.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

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One more thing; last part of last night's long range from RAH:

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

JET ENERGY DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT

PROGRESSES INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS DEEPEN THE TROUGH FURTHER

ON SUNDAY. WHILE DETAILS VARY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A VORT MAX

SWING ACROSS VA/NC SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z/29 GFS PRODUCES SOME

PRECIP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH COLD CRITICAL THICKNESS

VALUES...WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY SOUTH OF THE VA BORDER. THIS IS A

LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST BASED ON THE PATTERN...SO WE WILL KEEP THE

FORECAST DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK TO

NEAR NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD...WITH A TREND BACK

ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MODELS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN

ACROSS THE CONUS.

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Just for discussion. I've noticed the Euro dropping a pretty steep trough in the East late in the run, then it looks like it's trying to close off a low in the south? The GFS looks nothing like it, and it 200+ out. Was wondering if the Pro's could make a comment.

Run-to-run continuity...

000zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA240.gif

12

12zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA240.gif

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Of course the coast would get more snow than central NC. That makes sense with the winter(s) we had.

Fixed for a point of clarification... :weenie: Don't buy into this too much folks, and further, posts regarding this weekend should be taken to the 3 day disco/obs thread. GFS, NAM, EC are all pretty consistent in hanging this front up along the coast, maybe even retreating the moisture transport into areas east of 95 through the Carolinas in response to a second peice of energy coming down. Unsure what SN algorithm that map used, but the ones I am looking at are all liquid form, at-least predominant p-type. 12z NAM critical thickness was interesting, but still all liquid. Even the 12z Euro was kind of suspect around 72 hrs, front clears the coast, heights crash, and another slug of moisture comes through. Keep in mind, this is not the clipper, maybe the guidance is picking up on less separation between the vorts, who knows, not buying in yet, in fact, not buying in at all till it is reaching the surface.

Check out here, for sure... ;)

nam_namer_075_500_vort_ht.gif

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Just for discussion. I've noticed the Euro dropping a pretty steep trough in the East late in the run, then it looks like it's trying to close off a low in the south? The GFS looks nothing like it, and it 200+ out. Was wondering if the Pro's could make a comment.

It was showing this a few days ago, so it might be possible. Looks like an extreme severe weather threat if that were to verify.

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The 0z Euro is still showing the sharp trough diving into our area later next week(doesn't show a lot of moisture to work with), while the GFS us trying to close off a low at the same time on the 12z. Something to look at I guess.

The 0Z Doc has hard freezes for much of the inland SE and 32 all the way to the Carolina coast 3/11-2. It has 850's down to an incredibly cold (for mid March) -11C at KATL and -8C on the Carolina coast to KSAV. Is the 0Z Doc on crack? I say it is as the prior run was nothing like this, its ensemble mean is only barely below normal, and no Goofy has had anything close to a cold shot then. Moreover, it doesn't fit the pattern at all. I expect a much warmer 12Z doc.

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The 0Z Doc has hard freezes for much of the inland SE and 32 all the way to the Carolina coast 3/11-2. It has 850's down to an incredibly cold (for mid March) -11C at KATL and -8C on the Carolina coast to KSAV. Is the 0Z Doc on crack? I say it is as the prior run was nothing like this, its ensemble mean is only barely below normal, and no Goofy has had anything close to a cold shot then. Moreover, it doesn't fit the pattern at all. I expect a much warmer 12Z doc.

I'm interested in the ULL the GFS has in the same time frame. Make for a nice snow, if they both were to verify..maybe :) The big time cold smack down is coming...has to...doesn't it, lol. I've got leaves and flowers coming out everywhere, and it's just too early. T

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The 0Z Doc has hard freezes for much of the inland SE and 32 all the way to the Carolina coast 3/11-2. It has 850's down to an incredibly cold (for mid March) -11C at KATL and -8C on the Carolina coast to KSAV. Is the 0Z Doc on crack? I say it is as the prior run was nothing like this, its ensemble mean is only barely below normal, and no Goofy has had anything close to a cold shot then. Moreover, it doesn't fit the pattern at all. I expect a much warmer 12Z doc.

FWIW, the JMA today is showing the massive cold shot as well. I haven't seen the 12z Doc today.

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I'm interested in the ULL the GFS has in the same time frame. Make for a nice snow, if they both were to verify..maybe :) The big time cold smack down is coming...has to...doesn't it, lol. I've got leaves and flowers coming out everywhere, and it's just too early. T

Its happened before

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Yep, I've had two in the last 5 years, of 4 inches or more. No reason to give up yet :)

And when I do give up, it is with kicking, screaming, and a few hours of hysteria..on the inside. The older I get the more I dislike spring and summer, and after this winter I could get down right resentful.... without a late season sleet/sn storm to quell the angst, lol. Tony

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The last two runs of the euro have shown a major snow events from west/middle tennessee up into kentucky and along the apps. East Tennessee gets some, but not as much snow.

Looks similar to me to the December 2004 event in this area (except with a narrower trough, and a bit further east) where arctic air is fighting a se ridge with waves of low pressure moving up the boundary and overrunning snow or sleet in the cold sector.

Euro accum maps (which I take with a grain of salt) showing a large area of 6 inches in middle tennessee up through kentucky and into new england.

gfs ensembles at 12z are moving in that direction - some of them have 850s below -20 for tennessee next weekend, which I assume is pretty intense arctic air for mid march.

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FWIW, the JMA today is showing the massive cold shot as well. I haven't seen the 12z Doc today.

Well, 12Z Doc predictably did back off from the intense cold of the 0Z Doc for next weekend, but it still is rather chilly/below normal and the 12Z Doc ensemble mean is a bit cooler than the 0Z version. All eyes and ears on tonight's 0Z Doc? The drama builds.

Aside: this is the final full weekend of Doc being fully released by 2 AM ET and the 0Z Goofy being out before midnight since DST starts next Sun. I'm officially slightly depressed. :cry: :cry:

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Well, 12Z Doc predictably did back off from the intense cold of the 0Z Doc for next weekend, but it still is rather chilly/below normal and the 12Z Doc ensemble mean is a bit cooler than the 0Z version. All eyes and ears on tonight's 0Z Doc? The drama builds.

Aside: this is the final full weekend of Doc being fully released by 2 AM ET and the 0Z Goofy being out before midnight since DST starts next Sun. I'm officially slightly depressed. :cry: :cry:

well, the bright side Larry is that we got a good 19 hour soaking rain of about 3-3.5" to help alleviate the drought.

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