burgertime Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 JMA might have something up it's sleeve though it's hard to read in 24 hour panels. Between 72 and 96 it looks cold enoug for many in NC but hard to tell how much precip actually falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 JMA might have something up it's sleeve though it's hard to read in 24 hour panels. Between 72 and 96 it looks cold enoug for many in NC but hard to tell how much precip actually falls. The NAM keeps trying to show something in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 For fun, the DGEX has a nice hit for the NC Mountains and Foothills. An I-77 Special plus some love for the northern Triad and bordering counties with VA. Do we need to break out the rally cap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 For fun, the DGEX has a nice hit for the NC Mountains and Foothills. An I-77 Special plus some love for the northern Triad and bordering counties with VA. Do we need to break out the rally cap? Do you have a map or link? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Do you have a map or link? TW Here's the link. Click on Accumulated Snowfall and the 84-192 hour snowfall. Burger will probably just post the picture for us, but I'm not sure how to do it. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Here's the link. Click on Accumulated Snowfall and the 84-192 hour snowfall. Burger will probably just post the picture for us, but I'm not sure how to do it. http://www.emc.ncep..../dgexops.conus/ That's from the 06z run right? Also, you are looking at hour 180 or so? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 That's from the 06z run right? Also, you are looking at hour 180 or so? TW That's right. The DGEX only runs at 06z and 18z. You can also look at the precip type and the snow happens from 180-192. I'm sure it's useless this far out, but other models are hinting at a storm during this time period as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 In the review of the last storm (2-19/20), a number of people noted the GFS saw an Apps runner for a long time until it got closer to the event. Yet the European had a fairly good grasp on the storm from 8-10 days out (though it did waffle a bit). Given the GFS and European are saying the same respective things about the storm next week, I take that as a good sign since these patterns tend to repeat once they're set in motion. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 if we are still talking about March 1-2 for a storm our locals just said 66 and 64 degrees with maybe rain? That would be way off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Recent GFS runs would be good for a severe weather event in the 144-180 hr period next week centered somewhere around the Ozarks/Lower MS Valley/Mid South into Dixie Alley. Open Gulf and strong wind profiles at all levels, although still a ways out (Better than these 10-11 day fantasy storms we've been seeing though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 yea why is it the models are calling for a southeast snowstorm next week march 1 and 2 but the long range shows temps in the 50's and 60's. you would think the long range would at least say rain/snow for late next week, but the nws never does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Here's the link. Click on Accumulated Snowfall and the 84-192 hour snowfall. Burger will probably just post the picture for us, but I'm not sure how to do it. http://www.emc.ncep..../dgexops.conus/ I'm clicking on accum. snow 84-192 and the dgex map shows only snow in the north for march 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I'm clicking on accum. snow 84-192 and the dgex map shows only snow in the north for march 1. That's the 18z....he's talking about the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 The 0Z Thu Goofy shows no real winter threats for the SE US...five Lakes Cutters and one Appalachian Rider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 The 0Z Thu Goofy shows no real winter threats for the SE US...five Lakes Cutters and one Appalachian Rider. ...and a bunch of svr threats... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 The 0Z Thu Goofy shows no real winter threats for the SE US...five Lakes Cutters and one Appalachian Rider. Yeah, but it's showing me with near 3 inches of rain in the first 3 days of March, lol I would gladly accept that Though it's apt to erode down to a few 10ths closer to the time. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 FWIW 6z GFS had something wintry @228. Not looking good though that's for sure when it comes to the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Well you can sure can tell nothing is going on winter weather wise this morning for the SE.I would really like to see one more chance at snow before all is said and done .If it doesn't happen then i'm ready for 2012-2013 winter .I've read we will have a El Nino next winter I saw comparison from Sept Oct Nov 2009 and the forecast for this years Sept Oct, Nov time fram and they look very close.We all know how 2009/2010 winter turned out.I'd take a repeat of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Well you can sure can tell nothing is going on winter weather wise this morning for the SE.I would really like to see one more chance at snow before all is said and done .If it doesn't happen then i'm ready for 2012-2013 winter .I've read we will have a El Nino next winter I saw comparison from Sept Oct Nov 2009 and the forecast for this years Sept Oct, Nov time fram and they look very close.We all know how 2009/2010 winter turned out.I'd take a repeat of that. El Nino does not necessarily equate to cold winter so be careful with those projections...an east based event could lead to another warm winter. Also there is a link above to a nice discussion in the mid range thread in the main Weather and Forecasting forum on ENSO going forward...there is still a good deal of uncertainty on the evolution...we could still be in La Nina next winter too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I think it is too early to know with any degree of certainty what the ENSO will be next winter but I think there is a very good chance we could be in an ENSO neutral pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Nino, Nina, and neutral. I think we've narrowed it down! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 This lovely warm weather today appears to be a hint of things to come. Indeed I believe last weekend was the "Robert Snow," because I see little in the cards now. Just 48 hours ago I was more hopeful coming out of the weekend, but much has changed. I'll go through this weekend, next week's Lakes and New England chances, and my March thoughts. Saturday upslope for the mountains looks hosed now, but still flurries or some snow showers. With the parent low so far north, post-frontal wind direction is not correct at low to mid-levels and the upper level flow is less cyclonic. Kudos to Ray for fading all week. With his niche focus in NC mtns, I rarely see either Type I or Type II errors in his snow fcsts. At least it will be cold enough to make snow. Next week looks to be another GL/NE event. Models actually had that except for about 24 hours of colder runs early this week. Even New England is questionable now. Should be thunderstorms in the South and maybe another mid-South svr tease. Starting to lose split flow in favor of an Ohio Valley single storm track putting snow up over the GL. Southeast ridging even tries to build at times with troughs passing through the West and Plains before spinning up lows in the Ohio Valley. Also the NAO creeping up is bearish and the guidance has latched on. Finally Pacific flow appears to be changing and will promote a more active storm track into the Pac-NW going into March. Eventually troughing should carve out West which would shut down the Southeast for snow. When systems eject from the Plains perhaps some severe chances will come up. Without a major shift mid-March that is it. I tend to favor looking fwd to severe season at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 12Z Doc LR.....meh. Please put the guns down as I'm just the messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 El Nino does not necessarily equate to cold winter so be careful with those projections...an east based event could lead to another warm winter. Also there is a link above to a nice discussion in the mid range thread in the main Weather and Forecasting forum on ENSO going forward...there is still a good deal of uncertainty on the evolution...we could still be in La Nina next winter too.... I agree but I will say several mets have said next year looks good. Robert and JB have said the next several years look good. Now JB said starting this upcoming winter while Robert has not pinpointed in down to that just yet. I forgot why they said that as I am just a Landscaper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Might be time to throw in the towel on this one. We could have another threat but I'm finding it hard to believe. No model shows anything really even remotely close. We just have to hope for a surprise at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I agree but I will say several mets have said next year looks good. Robert and JB have said the next several years look good. Now JB said starting this upcoming winter while Robert has not pinpointed in down to that just yet. I forgot why they said that as I am just a Landscaper Some are speculating that we are entering a cooler period with a return to winters seen in the 60s and 70s (I am skeptical of that)...I don't know about Robert but I believe Joe is on that path and he is not the only one. As you have been saying...most did not get this winter correct even in November so it is probably not a good idea to forecast next winter in February! I just hope that everyone recognizes that ENSO is far from a perfect tool to characterize an upcoming season....the last two winters have proven that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Might be time to throw in the towel on this one. We could have another threat but I'm finding it hard to believe. No model shows anything really even remotely close. We just have to hope for a surprise at this point. Yup...after trying to shed a ray of hope the last few days, they have almost slammed the door shut except for some type of freak dynamic event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Some are speculating that we are entering a cooler period with a return to winters seen in the 60s and 70s (I am skeptical of that)...I don't know about Robert but I believe Joe is on that path and he is not the only one. As you have been saying...most did not get this winter correct even in November so it is probably not a good idea to forecast next winter in February! I just hope that everyone recognizes that ENSO is far from a perfect tool to characterize an upcoming season....the last two winters have proven that out. Agreed - These last two winter seasons have both been during "La Nina", however they have certainly not behaved per the classical MO. Last year we had a stubborn -NAO that resulted in cold and snow for the SE...this year, a nasty PJ undercut everything, and the rain amounts for my FA have been well above the characteristics of a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 We've been trending toward a more negative NAO and that's part of what Robert was alluding to in his winter forecast. So yes, there might be some truth to the colder winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 If I were a betttin man i'd say the models will go back to a storm for us in a day or two and probably cold as well.That's the way it's been all winter long.One day the models show everyone getting storm ,and everyone gets excited,Next day doesn't look as good then by day 3 people are talking about jumping off cliff.Not sure what that will prove by jumping off cliffs.Then 2 dys later another storm pops back up.The snow we got last week wasn't suppoes to happen here.The forecast was for it to hit the Mid Atlantic .It was there one day gone the next .Even some had it as a Miller B.I've never seen the models with this much problem the whole season.And were not done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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