Marion_NC_WX Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Let's see if we can end the month with something special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I believe the Euro and Canadian did do better however the GFS did spot the storm on hr 384. It seems it always spots them then loses them only to bring back at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I believe the Euro and Canadian did do better however the GFS did spot the storm on hr 384. It seems it always spots them then loses them only to bring back at the end Really? Just because it was there does not mean that it properly determined the evolution for 16 days...tend to believe in the blind squirrel theory on that one. Euro weeklies torch next week...with Canada very cold then things warm up big time in the Plains and Midwest going into early and mid March...the 11-15 day ensemble mean pattern looks fairly active...if it remains in place it is going to be a busy spring with severe weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I believe! I'll just leave this here.... Interesting solution...but it would be much like this one. Very dependent on cold getting here before the moisture. Euro last night had the track much further inland so it was just a cold front chasing the moisture away. 6z sheered out the low and it never turned the corner. Canadian last night also is just cold chasing the moisture. JMA might be close last night. Unless the Euro and Canadian get on board this is probably just a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Really? Just because it was there does not mean that it properly determined the evolution for 16 days...tend to believe in the blind squirrel theory on that one. Euro weeklies torch next week...with Canada very cold then things warm up big time in the Plains and Midwest going into early and mid March...the 11-15 day ensemble mean pattern looks fairly active...if it remains in place it is going to be a busy spring with severe weather... I agree but I am just saying it seems to spot storms and then loses them. Canadian did well but thats jmo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Interesting solution...but it would be much like this one. Very dependent on cold getting here before the moisture. Euro last night had the track much further inland so it was just a cold front chasing the moisture away. 6z sheered out the low and it never turned the corner. Canadian last night also is just cold chasing the moisture. JMA might be close last night. Unless the Euro and Canadian get on board this is probably just a hiccup. It is an ensemble member so I would not venture to say it is even a hiccup...but this winter has left it so desperate that it has been useless to argue with the idea of putting those or +Day 10 operational charts into a legitimate pattern discussion thread. We used to operate under the idea that if you post something like that you had better have a reason instead of "I hope"...I do appreciate, though, burger, that you at least tried to rationalize something from it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 It is an ensemble member so I would not venture to say it is even a hiccup...but this winter has left it so desperate that it has been useless to argue with the idea of putting those or +Day 10 operational charts into a legitimate pattern discussion thread. We used to operate under the idea that if you post something like that you had better have a reason instead of "I hope"...I do appreciate, though, burger, that you at least tried to rationalize something from it... Ha didn't even realize it was a ensemble member just quickly looked at it then checked last night's GFS. I'm pretty much done with winter. Bring on shorts weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I believe the Euro and Canadian did do better however the GFS did spot the storm on hr 384. It seems it always spots them then loses them only to bring back at the end On that most recent storm, no one model had it nailed down - let's be honest. The GFS failed it miserably. You could argue that the Canadian and Euro were close, I'll give you that. But up to that point (season wise) GFS wins the beyond 5 days comprehension battle. And of course long range matters - otherwise what are we discussing right now, in this thread - and why? I've yet to see verification that the Euro has been solid over the GFS beyond 5 days. I will humbly concede once I see it. But outside of a split flow situation, when have we been able to bank on the Euro in the long to mid range? Edit: I left out a further point that the GFS runs 4 times a day while the Euro runs twice - much less opportunity to appear/be inaccurate. How does that factor in verification calculations? Seriously - I'm asking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 On that most recent storm, no one model had it nailed down - let's be honest. The GFS failed it miserably. You could argue that the Canadian and Euro were close, I'll give you that. But up to that point (season wise) GFS wins the beyond 5 days comprehension battle. And of course long range matters - otherwise what are we discussing right now, in this thread - and why? I've yet to see verification that the Euro has been solid over the GFS beyond 5 days. I will humbly concede once I see it. But outside of a split flow situation, when have we been able to bank on the Euro in the long to mid range? http://www.daculaweather.com/model_verification.php Look at the last chart which goes to 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 http://www.daculawea...erification.php Look at the last chart which goes to 7 days. Thank you Steve...I will review and respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 GFS is close to the something interesting in the 5 to 6 day timeframe. If that SW cutoff can stay detached from the thursday system and roll through at the right time after the front passes. Maybe we could get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I like this too... you can see how the HPC has done compared to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Actually every model from last night's run phased this energy to create the maine bomb. Maybe the CMC and Euro will follow the 12z GFS in not phasing it and we'll have a chance at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Sad to say, the 12z GFS is one of the best looking runs I've seen all winter -- nice overrunning look in the 180-204 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Actually every model from last night's run phased this energy to create the maine bomb. Maybe the CMC and Euro will follow the 12z GFS in not phasing it and we'll have a chance at something. Yea it would be great if the northern stream could bypass tha Baja energy and leave it trailing behind. Wishfull thinking as well as hoping that great overruning pattern it shows next week would verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 If the Euro could the energy down out west by like a day we would be in business this weekend...but alas probably not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 You can tell that storm took the energy out of everyone. The latest 12z GFS ensembles show some potential for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Sad to say, the 12z GFS is one of the best looking runs I've seen all winter -- nice overrunning look in the 180-204 hour range. Good catch skippy! Wow, what a run for the upper south (not alot of snow/ice on those runs, but alot of events that are reasonably close to break either way, and there is alot of cold air showing up in Canada). I know some are ready to throw in the towel now, but I'm not ready. Still time for one or two good events. Who else is up for tracking a couple more opportunities? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I'm wondering how and if the lack of winter this year in the US will have an effect on next winter?Seems like 2001/2002 was like this and 2002/2003 winter started in early Dec .and we had several snows that winter.I'm sure ther have been other years like that .Come to think of it 2008/2009 was that way too.Not much winter but 2009/2010 was awesome.Just my 2 cents worth.Something Joe Bastardi has been saying is the Pacific has turned cold and the Atlantic going to .My question is when will the Atlantic turn cold.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 You are correct. We usually see a post storm blues period... Still on the hunt to see the first flakes of the season here. You can tell that storm took the energy out of everyone. The latest 12z GFS ensembles show some potential for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Good news guys the Euro is close to something in the same time frame the GFS has at 180 - 205 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Always! Good catch skippy! Wow, what a run for the upper south (not alot of snow/ice on those runs, but alot of events that are reasonably close to break either way, and there is alot of cold air showing up in Canada). I know some are ready to throw in the towel now, but I'm not ready. Still time for one or two good events. Who else is up for tracking a couple more opportunities? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Good news guys the Euro is close to something in the same time frame the GFS has at 180 - 205 That is awesome. I must admit...I had the blues and dared not to look at the model runs. LOL. I am going to check the 12z GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Good catch skippy! Wow, what a run for the upper south (not alot of snow/ice on those runs, but alot of events that are reasonably close to break either way, and there is alot of cold air showing up in Canada). I know some are ready to throw in the towel now, but I'm not ready. Still time for one or two good events. Who else is up for tracking a couple more opportunities? TW I'm with you! We might need to start a weenie thread though, because the ops. and ensembles are only good out a ways if they show warmth. The fact that Goofy has shown some hope on a number of runs is only weenie fodder, lol. I've seen two over running scenarios on the GFS lately that seem like a shot, to me, but I have a weenie brain and can't read models in the proper scientific way, which would allow me to see I have no chance at all The fact we have over a month of climatologicaly favorable cool/cold weather possible is only the dream stuff of fantasists apparently....but I will never forget March 13th. More silly weenie fantasy, of course, 'cause that could never happen again in a bazillion years! I'd like to give up and shoot myself, but I'm just so danged optimistic I can't seem to get in the right mood. And, anyway Goofy is giving me another bunch of rain in the next 10 days, and I need to stay alive to see if that happens, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 18z gfs is showing an interesting setup at 186-192. Gulf moisture and a 1032 high at 189. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 18z gfs is showing an interesting setup at 186-192. Gulf moisture and a 1032 high at 189. Looks like a possible overrunning event, pretty solid high pressure drops down into the Northern Plains and slowly retrogrades eastward. Cad signature showing up. Maybe one of those situations where a frontal boundary sets up shop and north of the boundary sees wintry precip, while south sees rain...12Z GFS is further south with the track with help from better placed, and stronger 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 18z gfs and 12z euro both have a system day 8. The setup at this point is not perfect, but the timing is so to speak. There is a strong wave that comes through day 7 laying down some cold air and a nice HP system with an incoming stj s/w after that. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Yep the 18z GFS continues advertising some interesting possibilities next Tues through Thursday: Maybe we get one more shot, time will tell. Hopefully the gfs is a shade to far north on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Friday night after any severe wx ends the mountains should see upslope snow. This winter seems upslope has done them better than synoptic systems; interesting chain of events this past NC snow for President's Day. Actually the clipper on Martin Luther King Day weekend was good for the mountains too. Systems like holidays? Does Feb 29 count as a special day? Both GFS and Euro changed their tunes for the 29th. Instead of a GL/NE storm, and South rain, they both discern two separate pieces of energy. The result, iff correct, once again allows some cold air to get into the Mid-South and/or Carolinas. Too early to debate track etc. Is this the system that spawned the thread? In general I see a few changes recently (February) over North America. The -AO dinged Europe instead of the USA, but the relatively closer to neutral NAO is a big change from the very positive in Dec/Jan. The AO/NAO could be key, but with other helpers. Also the northern and southern streams are active simultaneously; that happened earlier in winter but during absurdly +AO/NAO, so to no avail. Something resembling cold air is in southern Canada and available for the northern stream to tap. The southern stream has a warmer than normal Gulf from which to draw moisture. The last may have contributed to the lingering moisture over NC Sunday for subsequent short-waves to work with even as the surface low departed. I'm not really bulled up about the 2-3 more weeks of winter, but there is still hope. I hear Houston/Carey singing When You Believe, lol! Finally somebody asked about winter and next winter. You could pair mild and cold winters or vice versa in many combinations. Is it a chicken or the egg question? I'd say not even that. It is pretty random. Every season is different. It is hard to imagine a winter this bearish next year, but in 2010 people probably thought it was hard to imagine the next winter being even colder. Like flipping a coin, it can alternate or go into streaks. Let's enjoy the rest of this winter first. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 FWIW, the 18z DGEX has snow across much of Western NC down to the northern tip of the Upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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