weatherpsycho Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Michsnowfreak, What did you get April 6, 2009? I remember that great 9"-10" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Yeah that storm was interesting in that it was overall a long duration, close to 24-hour event, but a good 4 of the 8 inches fell in a 2-3 hour band on Jan 10th.Its certainly a forgotten storm because of all the action the past several years, but it was nice (and would stick out like a monster in this winter lol) Most def some fog played a roll per those pics. Always seems to happen around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 The above capture of the 12z European model (ECMWF) ensemble means shows what the landscape will look like following the weekend storm over the northeast US. The weekend storm, by most accounts, will deepen significantly over southeastern Canada and temporarily raise heights over the Davis Strait, allowing for a transient psuedo -NAO and 50/50 low to form Sunday before the fast nature of the pattern forces the NAO to return to a positive state and heights to rise over the eastern US. At the same time, ridging will thumb its way into southern Alaska and help carve out a trough over the Rockies. This trough will eject east into the central and eventually northeastern US starting Sunday, but it now appears the trough will eject east in pieces, resulting in more than one low pressure riding through the northern tier of the central US/southern Canada as opposed to one large storm cutting through the upper Midwest. The first piece of energy will eject Sunday and reach Ontario by Monday evening. As one would expect, there are some variable model solutions with this ejecting energy… The 12z ECM shows a storm that ejects from the TX/OK Panhandle area and moves ENE into WI before deepening and cutting northeastward into the UP of MI by Monday evening. This solution would bring a swath of snow to the northern Plains east into northern IA, southern and eastern MN and a good chunk of WI and northern MI. The 12z GFS was not much different than the 12z ECM in the end…the GFS is a bit north with the low track early on and does not cut the low to the northwest of the Great Lakes as sharply as the ECM does, but the end tracks and end results are not too far off. It should be noted however that the GFS is several hours faster in taking the low pressure east than the ECM. The 12z GFS ensembles however show more variation than the operational GFS/ECM have in their solutions. The ensembles show a wide range of solutions, from a weaker storm that ejects faster and tracks a bit farther south, to a wound up solution over the western lakes by Monday morning like the operational models are currently showing, to in one case almost no storm at all. The 12z ECM ensemble mean shows a solution that is a bit faster and a bit flatter than both of the operational models, which seems to be the trend amongst the GFS ensembles as well, sans a few members. So, what solution is most likely? My initial inclination would be to expect the slightly more progressive (faster) and farther south solution with less of a hook north into Lake Superior than the operational models show. When referencing the large scale pattern shown in the European model ensemble mean to open the post, my logic is fairly simple: Although brief, confluence from the departing storm over eastern Canada will favor a high pressure over south-central Canada that will make it hard for a storm to hook north. However, there are some factors that may allow for the more NW track to win out… The 12z GFS, shown above, was close to digging the northern stream shortwave far enough south to partially phase with the subtropical jet stream energy. If phasing were to occur, the jet streak would intensify, divergence in the left-exit portion of the jet streak (which the SLP will be co-located with) would increase and the storm would intensify faster, allowing the shortwave associated with the storm to take on a negative tilt west of the lakes and allow for a nice left-hook in the surface low track. As also noted above, the NAO will quickly return to a positive state by Monday and southeast ridging will try to develop. This may allow heights east of the Great Lakes to rise enough to help the storm take on a negative tilt west of the Great Lakes. Given seasonal trends and the fast nature of the pattern, I will for now favor the less amplified solution which may allow good snows to get into much of IA/WI/MI Sunday night into Monday, however we will need to watch for a potential partial phase between the northern and southern branches of the jet stream and rising heights east of the Great Lakes, as those factors may allow for the more amplified solution to play out. The very cold air and Canadian high pressure just north of the surface low should allow for a nice band of powdery snows and high winds to the north/west of the low track in either solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Yeah that storm was interesting in that it was overall a long duration, close to 24-hour event, but a good 4 of the 8 inches fell in a 2-3 hour band on Jan 10th.Its certainly a forgotten storm because of all the action the past several years, but it was nice (and would stick out like a monster in this winter lol) I got a foot out of that storm. 01.09-10.2009 That was a good one! Great analysis OHweather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Its been a few years (or more) since a good late Feb severe threat graced SeMi. Not holding my breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Its been a few years (or more) since a good late Feb severe threat graced SeMi. Not holding my breath This system has a better chance of occluding and coming through as snow than being a severe threat right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 this storm is taking one of the oddest tracks I've seen in awhile, as per the 0z GFS. Congrats Minnesoota and North Dakota! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 oz looks a tad north of 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 this storm is taking one of the oddest tracks I've seen in awhile, as per the 0z GFS. Congrats Minnesoota and North Dakota! a CO to MN track is far from odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 oz looks a tad north of 18z... It's pretty much the same. North Platte, NE to about Red Wing, MN track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Its been a few years (or more) since a good late Feb severe threat graced SeMi. Not holding my breath I wouldn't either. The GOM is closed in terms of moisture flux. Any severe threat ends there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Although there is still a storm, the recent runs are about as tame as you can get for most in this subforum. The significant snow is north and there isn't enough time for adequate moisture return for a substantial severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Although there is still a storm, the recent runs are about as tame as you can get for most in this subforum. The significant snow is north and there isn't enough time for adequate moisture return for a substantial severe threat. Another instance where a GEFS "storm of the year" fizzles as it gets closer. Although I think the EURO was also bullish with this one back in the D8-10 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Although there is still a storm, the recent runs are about as tame as you can get for most in this subforum. The significant snow is north and there isn't enough time for adequate moisture return for a substantial severe threat. Unless something radically changes for the svr threat across the SE this Thursday/Friday, looks like February will be a quiet month for severe wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Michsnowfreak, What did you get April 6, 2009? I remember that great 9"-10" storm. Only 4.6" imby but 7.2" just down the road at DTW. Still an excellent and scenic storm for April, but Im thinking the track, time of year, and my location on the water is what "screwed" me in the last snowstorm of the season, and being the concluding snow of a 2-season total (2007-08 + 2008-09) of 143" its easy to see why I never talk much of this storm. Incidentally as a result 2008-09 is the only season where DTWs official snowfall beat mine (65.7" to 64.8"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 What model is the NWS looking at that brings in 48 degrees on Monday in Detroit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 What model is the NWS looking at that brings in 48 degrees on Monday in Detroit? Probably the euro. 12z was close to that and well the 00z now has 50+ making a run for the thumb ahead of the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Probably the euro. 12z was close to that and well the 00z now has 50+ making a run for the thumb ahead of the cold front. Yeah I would say so for here too. Sunday Hi: 39° here with chance of rain, then 27° and snow at night. Looks like it gets warmer in MI then back this far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 6z is even further north (Hayward, WI), weaker and pretty much a dud around these parts. Euro looks a little south of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha....ohhh. This winter...whew...funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 6z is even further north (Hayward, WI), weaker and pretty much a dud around these parts. Euro looks a little south of the GFS. Ha ha. The EURO would bring a line rain showers through if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 i thought this one had promise for the Minny crew, bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Only 4.6" imby but 7.2" just down the road at DTW. Still an excellent and scenic storm for April, but Im thinking the track, time of year, and my location on the water is what "screwed" me in the last snowstorm of the season, and being the concluding snow of a 2-season total (2007-08 + 2008-09) of 143" its easy to see why I never talk much of this storm. Incidentally as a result 2008-09 is the only season where DTWs official snowfall beat mine (65.7" to 64.8"). The problem with April 6th, 2009 were two-fold. 1. We were briefly impacted by the dry slot (. 2. We still had a problem of getting under the heavier returns for a significant period of time (downsloping from E/NE wind initially?), unlike the NW suburbs where 6"+ and thundersnow fell. I don't think the water had as much of an impact. As for January 9th-10th, I remember that storm very well (if someone can bring up the dates, I can certainly remember every little detail about the event). It was a strange one, and it did overachieve locally. However, it consisted of two bursts of energy. The first wave had already dumped several inches of snow along a Chicago-Toledo line the day before (we got some fog-laden light snow from it too, huge flakes), then the second wave dumped more snow along those areas (12"+ special for them, go figure), before the area of snow was bumped northward giving us 4-8" total. It did overachieve locally, definitely. However, It would be a stretch to say all the snow here fell in the heavy band that sat over us for 2-3 hours. 3-5" had already fallen before the band developed (mostly from the heavier burst we had before sunrise). Then the February 22nd, 2010 storm. Technically it overachieved locally, but overall the storm underachieved. Not even 48 hours before that storm, we were talking about the potential for 10"+ amounts from Chicago to Saginaw (while we would have rain/mixing issues). Then it gradually weakened while trending SE and then you have our 6-8" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Just from looking at the GFS briefly, it seems like the GFS has to be underdoing the WAA with this storm. 12z GFS says not much of a storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 i thought this one had promise for the Minny crew, bummer I am gonna go with you on this storm as well. As we get closer I am guessing it will trend south, drier, and probably warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I am gonna go with you on this storm as well. As we get closer I am guessing it will trend south, drier, and probably warmer. I haven't been following this one too much and have been beating that drum for the one before it, this things looks to occlude super quick and then scoot harmlessly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I haven't been following this one too much and have been beating that drum for the one before it, this things looks to occlude super quick and then scoot harmlessly east. And doesnt manage to pull down much cool air in its wake it this run is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 And doesnt manage to pull down much cool air in its wake it this run is correct. I'm moving on to watching what happens with the leftover energy in the southwest close towards the end of the month. EDIT: fantasy land but the gulf will be open for the first time in a while and there will be potential for a nice baroclinic zone...not that we haven't seen these fail time after time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 12z looks a hair south of the 6z, but still weak any not overly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 With the D2-3 storm not expected to deepen as much as previously anticipated, I'm going to retract my DVN-MKE-MBS call. The more northern solution might indeed be correct. But this doesn't look like the big deal it once did anyway. Looks like the models may now be trying to emphasize that second piece of energy Aleking alluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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