mnweather Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 988 over ne colorado at day 6 on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Ok, that H5 profile looks nasty...wow. Wondering if there will be time for moisture advection...cause if that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Holy mother. That would be incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 983 over my head, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Verbatim that would rival some of the worst blizzards ever for portions of Nodak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Tremendous gradient on the NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Ok, that H5 profile looks nasty...wow. Wondering if there will be time for moisture advection...cause if that happens best moisture return is limited to the gulf coast/dixie region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Wow, quite a break from continuity with the 0z EURO. I'd probably get a round of TSRA up here. Somewhat surprising. Intuitively, you'd think considering it bombs the D4-5 storm out to such a great degree, the confluence across E NA would be sufficient to prevent a cut like that. But if the trough is deep/neg tilt enough, I suppose it could overcome that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 best moisture return is limited to the gulf coast/dixie region. yay for some snow lovers... for me lol Clearly my tastes are out of place here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 6z GFS looks like it takes the low right through this area.... Doesn't look nearly as strong compared to the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Not nearly as excited about this threat today as I was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 That is a crazy looking solution depicted by the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Looks like the low goes just north of LSE??? Big hit for northern areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 So i went from a foot+ to maybe an inch... Looks like it would be pretty mild to start around here... Still something to watch, if that south trend comes into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Looks like the low goes just north of LSE??? Big hit for northern areas... That's a large track deviation from the 0z run! ~ 200+ miles. Won't be the end result though knowing this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Models still flopping all over. Euro went well nw last night, but came right back to a low track over central Iowa this morning. Unfortunately, even the farthest south runs are still too far north for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 How much moisture does the Euro show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 How much moisture does the Euro show? 12z run of the euro has RST 0.55 LSE 0.69...all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 12z run of the euro has RST 0.55 LSE 0.69...all snow thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 12z Euro would seem to indicate that the GOM may be open for business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 18z looks north... Has low over Sioux Falls at 120hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Looks like it comes right across the area, as it straddles the MN?IA border... N MN/N WI special at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 12z EURO ensemble mean takes the storm through central Lk Michigan. The vort associated with this storm is going to have to slow and deepen pretty rapidly for it to cut as far north as the 0z EURO, or even the 18z GFS is depicting. There's a transient block in place caused by the D4 storm and it seems to me that the storm is more likely going to try and undercut the upstream ridge. The models, even the with the more NW track, seem to acknowledge this feature with how quickly they occlude the storm. Right now, I'd say a track from DVN-MKE-MBS is more likely than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 12z Euro would seem to indicate that the GOM may be open for business This is deceiving because, even though the low level flow vectors are off the GOM, the moisture flux is junk as that Day 4 trough wipes the GOM out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 12z EURO ensemble mean takes the storm through central Lk Michigan. The vort associated with this storm is going to have to slow and deepen pretty rapidly for it to cut as far north as the 0z EURO, or even the 18z GFS is depicting. There's a transient block in place caused by the D4 storm and it seems to me that the storm is more likely going to try and undercut the upstream ridge. The models, even the with the more NW track, seem to acknowledge this feature with how quickly they occlude the storm. Right now, I'd say a track from DVN-MKE-MBS is more likely than not. I was thinking a more southern route as well given the highlighted point above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I was thinking a more southern route as well given the highlighted point above. Sometimes pattern recognition can be quite visceral rather than analytical. Jamming a sfc low into Lk Superior when you have a ~970mb low spinning off the coast of Labrador just doesn't mesh well. Of course, I've been wrong many a time before. Let's see if I wear this one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Finally looks like a Nice event for most MN.. I think most of MN is in a drought. They need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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