All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

[kab2791]

I certainly did not expect to see a winter storm watch issued for my area. I'm going to remain skeptical unless I see more support tonight & tomorrow morning.

That is an interesting HPC map showing the snow band going to my south.

Issued early this morning...

[dmc76]

Wonders if WSW will be issued for the Northern half DTX counties

[Hoosier]

If we're going to talk about the NAM which hasn't been right all winter, might as well talk about the UKMET which hasn't been right all winter.

South

That's a little harsh. UKMET has pretty good scores.

[Thundersnow12]

lol northern IL screw zone

this is the morning one though, I'd expect a larger 4" area.

[hm8]

Wonders if WSW will be issued for the Northern half DTX counties

I'd be surprised if the majority of SEMI didn't at least get its first WWA. A watch/warning might be a stretch though.

[dmc76]

I'd be surprised if the majority of SEMI didn't at least get its first WWA. A watch/warning might be a stretch though.

I think its a lock for and advisory from Detroit (94) North. WSW is possible especially around the Saginaw Valley/Thumb area.

[A-L-E-K]

That's a little harsh. UKMET has pretty good scores.

i actually haven't been following it much. If that's the case, i'd take it, the Euro and GGEM over the NAM + anything, anyday of the week.

[Jonger]

Do you think there will be any lake enhancement in SW lower Michigan?

[A-L-E-K]

early looks says the 18z NAM is a good bit south with the plains low at 12hr compared to 12z at 18hrs.

[Ajdos]

I think its a lock for and advisory from Detroit (94) North. WSW is possible especially around the Saginaw Valley/Thumb area.

... LOL

[gosaints]

NAM coming back to reality

[baroclinic_instability]

early looks says the 18z NAM is a good bit south with the plains low at 12hr compared to 12z at 18hrs.

Seems reasonable given how incredibly far N it was. 12Z was tossable. HPC favors EC/UKMET which dive that upper wave S much more dramatically than RGEM/NAM/GFS. Current WV at 19Z suggests those solutions are more correct.

[A-L-E-K]

Seems reasonable given how incredibly far N it was. 12Z was tossable. HPC favors EC/UKMET which dive that upper wave S much more dramatically than RGEM/NAM/GFS. Current WV at 19Z suggests those solutions are more correct.

Just read that.

[baroclinic_instability]

18Z NAM dprog/dt. NAM fail.

Note how far S it is already only 9 hrs into the run compared to 12Z.

[Jonger]

Just give me 6+ on some snowmobile trails within 150 miles! I have friday off, couldnt be more perfect.

[A-L-E-K]

18Z NAM dprog/dt. NAM fail.

Note how far S it is already only 9 hrs into the run compared to 12Z.

I'll give the NAM this, it's consistency in being too far north this winter outside 12 hours is amazing.

[Thundersnow12]

The wave is a bit stronger and further south in southern SD at 15hrs.

[A-L-E-K]

The wave is a bit stronger and further south in southern SD at 15hrs.

Changes are pretty massive, it pretty much went from extreme outlier N to the Euro's b**ch in one run.

[Chicago Storm]

this is why i lol every time i see the NAM being discussed in a thread.

it's pointless.

[gosaints]

really warm

[Thundersnow12]

Changes are pretty massive, it pretty much went from extreme outlier N to the Euro's b**ch in one run.

haha best line I've heard regarding weather in quite awhile.

Wetter through 21hrs.

[baroclinic_instability]

Changes are pretty massive, it pretty much went from extreme outlier N to the Euro's b**ch in one run.

UKMET was also dramatically S and nailed N IL. Seems the new combo not to ignore is UK/ECMWF. Being completely weenie here..DT may need to start an ECMWF/UKMET rule.

[Chicago Storm]

looking through a few soundings, there is some CAPE within the column...along with nice omega.

so the TSSN potential is very real.

[Thundersnow12]

looking through a few soundings, there is some CAPE within the column...along with nice omega.

so the TSSN potential is very real.

Was looking at that potential a bit ago on Bufkit.

And given possible banding/length of time over an area, it could be a overachiever somewhere.

[Thundersnow12]

Northern IL getting dumped on at 33hr on the 18z NAM. 850's look much better. Along and north of I-88 hang around -3 for most of the event until the low passes east and colder air comes down.

[Ajdos]

nam <3

[Jonger]

Holy 5hit this thing buries the bottom 4 teirs of counties in Michigan.

[Ajdos]

OMG DTX:

Sterling Heights..

hursday: A slight chance of snow before 7am, then a slight chance of rain and snow after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 38. West wind at 6 mph becoming southeast. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday Night: Snow. Low around 31. North northwest wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Friday: Snow likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Light wind becoming west between 12 and 15 mph. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Sterling+Heights&state=MI&site=DTX&lat=42.58&lon=-83.0305

[dmc76]

Only if the NAM was correct will be talking 5-10" amounts

[Thundersnow12]

small .50" liquid contour in sw MI at 36hr.