All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

Baum · February 22, 2012

Yeah I did.. You want one too for your area?

nah, I remember your local forecasts from last winter. :snowing: :weenie: Although, I'll be at Sobelman's tonight at 5pm before taking in the game and visiting my son on campus. What time should I hit the road in the a.m. to avoid this monster.....in all seriousness?

wisconsinwx · February 22, 2012

nah, I remember your local forecasts from last winter. Although, I'll be at Sobelman's tonight at 5pm before taking in the game and visiting my son on campus. What time should I hit the road in the a.m. to avoid this monster.....in all seriousness?

Right after the game lol. No seriously, have fun at the game. I'll be there and I assume Beast will as well.

BowMeHunter · February 22, 2012

12z ECMWF:

MSN:

FRI 00Z 24-FEB   0.9	-4.1	1002	  83	  94	0.04	 533	 532  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB  -1.2	-5.0	1003	  87	 100	0.14	 530	 528  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -2.8	-7.6	1005	  85	 100	0.09	 527	 523  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.2	-8.6	1008	  64	  77	0.02	 527	 521  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.5	-8.5	1011	  74	  99	0.02	 528	 519  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -6.1   -11.8	1015	  63	  71	0.01	 527	 515

MKE:

FRI 00Z 24-FEB   0.7	-3.7	1002	  90	 100	0.06	 535	 533  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.1	-4.8	1001	  87	 100	0.14	 532	 531  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.7	-5.8	1003	  89	 100	0.14	 527	 525  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.9	-8.8	1007	  67	 100	0.05	 527	 522  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.7	-7.9	1010	  78	  87	0.02	 528	 520  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.3	-9.7	1013	  77	  95	0.01	 527	 517  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -4.5   -11.7	1016	  68	  79	0.01	 526	 513

SBM:

FRI 06Z 24-FEB  -0.9	-5.6	1003	  80	  96	0.05	 530	 528  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -1.6	-6.9	1004	  88	  99	0.07	 527	 524  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.5	-9.3	1007	  61	  93	0.03	 526	 521  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.1	-8.7	1009	  68	  79	0.01	 527	 519  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.0   -10.3	1012	  77	  96	0.01	 526	 517  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -3.5   -11.9	1015	  74	  96	0.01	 526	 514

CID:

THU 18Z 23-FEB   2.7	-1.3	 998	  93	 100	0.12	 536	 538  
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   1.4	-2.8	 999	  98	  97	0.17	 533	 534  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.4	-4.7	1004	  91	  98	0.16	 530	 527  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -1.4	-7.7	1009	  77	  91	0.03	 529	 522  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.0	-8.2	1013	  56	  59	0.01	 530	 520

DVN:

THU 18Z 23-FEB   4.2	-1.2	 998	  90	 100	0.20	 537	 539  
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.8	-1.3	 998	  97	  98	0.16	 535	 537  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.7	-4.2	1001	  98	 100	0.20	 531	 530  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.4	-7.1	1007	  88	  98	0.12	 529	 523  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   3.5	-8.7	1011	  49	  98	0.00	 530	 521  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.2	-9.4	1015	  45	  36	0.01	 530	 518

RFD:

THU 18Z 23-FEB   4.4	-2.2	1000	  77	  87	0.01	 536	 536  
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   1.2	-3.3	1000	  99	 100	0.14	 536	 536  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.2	-4.2	1000	  95	  97	0.15	 531	 531  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -1.4	-6.1	1004	  88	 100	0.16	 528	 524  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.0	-8.1	1008	  63	  82	0.03	 528	 522  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.1	-8.2	1012	  75	  84	0.03	 529	 519  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -6.0   -11.4	1015	  64	  42	0.01	 528	 516

ORD:

THU 18Z 23-FEB   4.3	-2.3	1002	  80	  80	0.01	 537	 536  
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.5	-2.9	1000	  93	 100	0.10	 538	 538  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.9	-2.9	 999	  99	  87	0.13	 534	 535  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.1	-5.2	1001	  92	  98	0.21	 528	 527  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.9	-8.3	1007	  65	 100	0.05	 528	 522  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.1	-7.7	1011	  76	  89	0.02	 529	 520  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.3	-9.9	1014	  73	  61	0.03	 528	 517

MDW:

THU 18Z 23-FEB   4.0	-2.1	1002	  83	  87	0.01	 538	 537  
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.8	-1.9	1000	  92	 100	0.08	 538	 539  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.5	-1.4	 999	  97	  74	0.08	 535	 536  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.5	-5.1	1001	  94	  95	0.16	 528	 527  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.8	-8.1	1007	  67	  99	0.05	 529	 523  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   1.1	-7.6	1011	  72	  91	0.03	 529	 520  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -1.3	-9.7	1014	  70	  59	0.02	 528	 518

VPZ:

THU 18Z 23-FEB   4.6	-1.9	1002	  78	 100	0.01	 540	 538  
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.8	-0.2	 999	  94	  90	0.07	 540	 541  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   2.5	 1.6	 998	  93	  60	0.01	 538	 540  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.8	-3.9	 998	  99	  85	0.04	 529	 531  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.2	-7.2	1007	  85	 100	0.05	 529	 523  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.5	-7.4	1011	  79	  99	0.04	 529	 520  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -0.6	-9.1	1013	  77	  77	0.03	 528	 518

FWA:

FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.3	 1.0	1000	  86	  82	0.04	 543	 543  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   3.2	 4.2	 997	  87	  52	0.02	 543	 545  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   3.7	-0.6	 997	  93	   4	0.02	 536	 539  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   4.8	-4.9	1003	  66	  80	0.02	 530	 528  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.1	-7.3	1010	  79	  98	0.02	 529	 521  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -0.9	-8.1	1012	  84	  97	0.01	 529	 519  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -1.6   -10.5	1015	  64	  46	0.01	 529	 517

MKG:

FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.7	-4.3	1002	  74	  88	0.01	 535	 534  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.8	-4.6	1001	  88	 100	0.08	 534	 533  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.3	-5.5	1000	  91	 100	0.13	 527	 527  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.9	-6.6	1004	  80	  99	0.12	 527	 523  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.6	-9.2	1009	  70	  99	0.04	 527	 519  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.5	-9.5	1010	  81	  85	0.01	 526	 518  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -3.9   -10.7	1014	  81	 100	0.02	 526	 516  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB  -0.4   -11.4	1020	  65	  75	0.02	 532	 517  
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -1.7   -11.3	1024	  62	  30	0.01	 544	 526

GRR:

FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.1	-4.0	1002	  74	 100	0.01	 537	 535  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.8	-4.0	1000	  96	  94	0.12	 536	 535  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.2	-5.2	 999	  95	 100	0.14	 528	 529  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.4	-6.9	1003	  77	  98	0.18	 527	 525  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -1.4	-8.5	1009	  82	 100	0.06	 527	 520  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -5.2	-9.6	1010	  82	  89	0.01	 526	 518  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -6.4   -10.3	1013	  88	  99	0.00	 526	 516  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   0.5   -11.4	1018	  54	  84	0.01	 532	 517  
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -5.4   -11.0	1024	  73	  36	0.01	 544	 525

BTL:

FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.1	-3.1	1002	  84	 100	0.03	 539	 537  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.3	-2.3	 999	  94	  84	0.09	 538	 538  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.4	-3.8	 998	  95	  86	0.13	 530	 532  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.0	-6.5	1003	  86	  94	0.17	 527	 525  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -1.2	-8.0	1009	  87	 100	0.06	 528	 520  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -4.7	-9.1	1011	  91	  90	0.01	 527	 518  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -5.1   -10.2	1013	  90	  95	0.01	 527	 516  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   0.3   -10.8	1018	  55	  89	0.03	 532	 517  
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -6.3   -10.4	1024	  77	  32	0.01	 545	 525

ADG:

FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.7	-2.4	1002	  75	  99	0.01	 541	 539  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.5	-1.3	1000	  83	  94	0.07	 541	 541  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.4	-0.2	 997	  94	  14	0.05	 535	 537  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.1	-6.1	1000	  80	  92	0.07	 528	 528  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.6	-6.7	1007	  84	  98	0.03	 528	 522  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.8	-9.0	1010	  81	  94	0.02	 527	 518  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -2.7	-9.7	1012	  85	  88	0.00	 527	 517  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   1.8	-9.8	1017	  47	  91	0.02	 531	 517  
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -1.5   -10.3	1024	  65	  39	0.01	 542	 524

DTW:

FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.2	-2.5	1001	  79	  98	0.04	 541	 540  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.1	-1.3	 997	  91	  40	0.10	 535	 537  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.1	-5.3	 999	  88	  94	0.08	 528	 529  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.7	-7.0	1006	  87	  95	0.03	 528	 522  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.1	-9.2	1009	  82	  95	0.04	 526	 519

YKF:

FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.5	-3.8	 999	  84	  99	0.10	 537	 538  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.6	-3.1	 996	  92	  33	0.12	 530	 533  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.5	-7.2	1000	  88	  89	0.09	 526	 526  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -1.8	-8.5	1004	  89	  86	0.01	 523	 520  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -2.9	-9.5	1006	  89	  92	0.01	 523	 518  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB  -0.3   -10.2	1010	  63	  97	0.02	 527	 519

YYZ:

FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.4	-4.9	1001	  89	  99	0.04	 537	 537  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.7	-2.9	 996	  95	  24	0.17	 531	 535  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.4	-6.4	 998	  91	  92	0.10	 525	 527  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -0.9	-8.0	1002	  85	  90	0.01	 523	 521  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -2.0	-9.7	1005	  82	  98	0.01	 522	 518  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   0.3   -10.6	1009	  60	  97	0.01	 526	 519

Geez timing of precip going to be key.

looks like a good chunk would fall after dark on the euro? and to bump joey's hard work.

A-L-E-K · February 22, 2012

Geez timing of precip going to be key.

big time, timing and rates will be huge. The mini event a week or two ago (the one with the NW IN lake event following) taught me a great lesson. We had great sized flakes pouring for an hour+ with absolutely no accums until temps dropped. I'm totally comfortable chopping off .2" of QPF to warm surface temps and light rates at onset that likely won't stick.

UW-weather · February 22, 2012

12z ECMWF:

MSN:

FRI 00Z 24-FEB   0.9	-4.1	1002	  83	  94	0.04	 533	 532  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB  -1.2	-5.0	1003	  87	 100	0.14	 530	 528  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -2.8	-7.6	1005	  85	 100	0.09	 527	 523  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.2	-8.6	1008	  64	  77	0.02	 527	 521  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.5	-8.5	1011	  74	  99	0.02	 528	 519  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -6.1   -11.8	1015	  63	  71	0.01	 527	 515

MKE:

FRI 00Z 24-FEB   0.7	-3.7	1002	  90	 100	0.06	 535	 533  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.1	-4.8	1001	  87	 100	0.14	 532	 531  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.7	-5.8	1003	  89	 100	0.14	 527	 525  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.9	-8.8	1007	  67	 100	0.05	 527	 522  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.7	-7.9	1010	  78	  87	0.02	 528	 520  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.3	-9.7	1013	  77	  95	0.01	 527	 517  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -4.5   -11.7	1016	  68	  79	0.01	 526	 513

SBM:

FRI 06Z 24-FEB  -0.9	-5.6	1003	  80	  96	0.05	 530	 528  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -1.6	-6.9	1004	  88	  99	0.07	 527	 524  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.5	-9.3	1007	  61	  93	0.03	 526	 521  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.1	-8.7	1009	  68	  79	0.01	 527	 519  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.0   -10.3	1012	  77	  96	0.01	 526	 517  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -3.5   -11.9	1015	  74	  96	0.01	 526	 514

CID:

THU 18Z 23-FEB   2.7	-1.3	 998	  93	 100	0.12	 536	 538  
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   1.4	-2.8	 999	  98	  97	0.17	 533	 534  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.4	-4.7	1004	  91	  98	0.16	 530	 527  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -1.4	-7.7	1009	  77	  91	0.03	 529	 522  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.0	-8.2	1013	  56	  59	0.01	 530	 520

DVN:

THU 18Z 23-FEB   4.2	-1.2	 998	  90	 100	0.20	 537	 539  
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.8	-1.3	 998	  97	  98	0.16	 535	 537  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.7	-4.2	1001	  98	 100	0.20	 531	 530  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.4	-7.1	1007	  88	  98	0.12	 529	 523  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   3.5	-8.7	1011	  49	  98	0.00	 530	 521  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.2	-9.4	1015	  45	  36	0.01	 530	 518

RFD:

THU 18Z 23-FEB   4.4	-2.2	1000	  77	  87	0.01	 536	 536  
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   1.2	-3.3	1000	  99	 100	0.14	 536	 536  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.2	-4.2	1000	  95	  97	0.15	 531	 531  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -1.4	-6.1	1004	  88	 100	0.16	 528	 524  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.0	-8.1	1008	  63	  82	0.03	 528	 522  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.1	-8.2	1012	  75	  84	0.03	 529	 519  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -6.0   -11.4	1015	  64	  42	0.01	 528	 516

ORD:

THU 18Z 23-FEB   4.3	-2.3	1002	  80	  80	0.01	 537	 536  
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.5	-2.9	1000	  93	 100	0.10	 538	 538  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.9	-2.9	 999	  99	  87	0.13	 534	 535  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.1	-5.2	1001	  92	  98	0.21	 528	 527  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.9	-8.3	1007	  65	 100	0.05	 528	 522  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.1	-7.7	1011	  76	  89	0.02	 529	 520  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.3	-9.9	1014	  73	  61	0.03	 528	 517

MDW:

THU 18Z 23-FEB   4.0	-2.1	1002	  83	  87	0.01	 538	 537  
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.8	-1.9	1000	  92	 100	0.08	 538	 539  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.5	-1.4	 999	  97	  74	0.08	 535	 536  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.5	-5.1	1001	  94	  95	0.16	 528	 527  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.8	-8.1	1007	  67	  99	0.05	 529	 523  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   1.1	-7.6	1011	  72	  91	0.03	 529	 520  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -1.3	-9.7	1014	  70	  59	0.02	 528	 518

VPZ:

THU 18Z 23-FEB   4.6	-1.9	1002	  78	 100	0.01	 540	 538  
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.8	-0.2	 999	  94	  90	0.07	 540	 541  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   2.5	 1.6	 998	  93	  60	0.01	 538	 540  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.8	-3.9	 998	  99	  85	0.04	 529	 531  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.2	-7.2	1007	  85	 100	0.05	 529	 523  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.5	-7.4	1011	  79	  99	0.04	 529	 520  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -0.6	-9.1	1013	  77	  77	0.03	 528	 518

FWA:

FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.3	 1.0	1000	  86	  82	0.04	 543	 543  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   3.2	 4.2	 997	  87	  52	0.02	 543	 545  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   3.7	-0.6	 997	  93	   4	0.02	 536	 539  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   4.8	-4.9	1003	  66	  80	0.02	 530	 528  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.1	-7.3	1010	  79	  98	0.02	 529	 521  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -0.9	-8.1	1012	  84	  97	0.01	 529	 519  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -1.6   -10.5	1015	  64	  46	0.01	 529	 517

MKG:

FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.7	-4.3	1002	  74	  88	0.01	 535	 534  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.8	-4.6	1001	  88	 100	0.08	 534	 533  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.3	-5.5	1000	  91	 100	0.13	 527	 527  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.9	-6.6	1004	  80	  99	0.12	 527	 523  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.6	-9.2	1009	  70	  99	0.04	 527	 519  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.5	-9.5	1010	  81	  85	0.01	 526	 518  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -3.9   -10.7	1014	  81	 100	0.02	 526	 516  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB  -0.4   -11.4	1020	  65	  75	0.02	 532	 517  
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -1.7   -11.3	1024	  62	  30	0.01	 544	 526

GRR:

FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.1	-4.0	1002	  74	 100	0.01	 537	 535  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.8	-4.0	1000	  96	  94	0.12	 536	 535  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.2	-5.2	 999	  95	 100	0.14	 528	 529  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.4	-6.9	1003	  77	  98	0.18	 527	 525  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -1.4	-8.5	1009	  82	 100	0.06	 527	 520  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -5.2	-9.6	1010	  82	  89	0.01	 526	 518  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -6.4   -10.3	1013	  88	  99	0.00	 526	 516  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   0.5   -11.4	1018	  54	  84	0.01	 532	 517  
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -5.4   -11.0	1024	  73	  36	0.01	 544	 525

BTL:

FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.1	-3.1	1002	  84	 100	0.03	 539	 537  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.3	-2.3	 999	  94	  84	0.09	 538	 538  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.4	-3.8	 998	  95	  86	0.13	 530	 532  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.0	-6.5	1003	  86	  94	0.17	 527	 525  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -1.2	-8.0	1009	  87	 100	0.06	 528	 520  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -4.7	-9.1	1011	  91	  90	0.01	 527	 518  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -5.1   -10.2	1013	  90	  95	0.01	 527	 516  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   0.3   -10.8	1018	  55	  89	0.03	 532	 517  
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -6.3   -10.4	1024	  77	  32	0.01	 545	 525

ADG:

FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.7	-2.4	1002	  75	  99	0.01	 541	 539  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.5	-1.3	1000	  83	  94	0.07	 541	 541  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.4	-0.2	 997	  94	  14	0.05	 535	 537  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.1	-6.1	1000	  80	  92	0.07	 528	 528  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.6	-6.7	1007	  84	  98	0.03	 528	 522  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.8	-9.0	1010	  81	  94	0.02	 527	 518  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -2.7	-9.7	1012	  85	  88	0.00	 527	 517  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   1.8	-9.8	1017	  47	  91	0.02	 531	 517  
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -1.5   -10.3	1024	  65	  39	0.01	 542	 524

DTW:

FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.2	-2.5	1001	  79	  98	0.04	 541	 540  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.1	-1.3	 997	  91	  40	0.10	 535	 537  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.1	-5.3	 999	  88	  94	0.08	 528	 529  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.7	-7.0	1006	  87	  95	0.03	 528	 522  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.1	-9.2	1009	  82	  95	0.04	 526	 519

YKF:

FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.5	-3.8	 999	  84	  99	0.10	 537	 538  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.6	-3.1	 996	  92	  33	0.12	 530	 533  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.5	-7.2	1000	  88	  89	0.09	 526	 526  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -1.8	-8.5	1004	  89	  86	0.01	 523	 520  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -2.9	-9.5	1006	  89	  92	0.01	 523	 518  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB  -0.3   -10.2	1010	  63	  97	0.02	 527	 519

YYZ:

FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.4	-4.9	1001	  89	  99	0.04	 537	 537  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.7	-2.9	 996	  95	  24	0.17	 531	 535  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.4	-6.4	 998	  91	  92	0.10	 525	 527  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -0.9	-8.0	1002	  85	  90	0.01	 523	 521  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -2.0	-9.7	1005	  82	  98	0.01	 522	 518  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   0.3   -10.6	1009	  60	  97	0.01	 526	 519

Reading discussions, and talking with meteorologists in my department....the EURO should basically be ignored this time around. It just does not make sense with this weather pattern and has been far off as the storm emerged on the coast, sorry Chicago but 3-6" still looks like a good bet!

BowMeHunter · February 22, 2012

BeastFromTheEast · February 22, 2012

big time, timing and rates will be huge. The mini event a week or two ago (the one with the NW IN lake event following) taught me a great lesson. We had great sized flakes pouring for an hour+ with absolutely no accums until temps dropped. I'm totally comfortable chopping off .2" of QPF to warm surface temps and light rates at onset that likely won't stick.

Maybe right by the lake IYBY but out in the burbs "stickage" issues won't be too bad i'm guessing..

A-L-E-K · February 22, 2012

I hope my 1/3" doesn't melt before i wake up Friday

wxhstn74 · February 22, 2012

Update based on latest 12z and this storm has ??? abound...lol

http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2012/02/eastern-great-lakes-winter-storm.html

A-L-E-K · February 22, 2012

Maybe right by the lake IYBY but out in the burbs "stickage" issues won't be too bad..

yeah, it's still going to be bad there too, same warm surface temps. My rents live way out in McHenry Co and have had similar issues. It's 41 at MDW, 43 at RFD and 45 at Jainesville right now, surfaces are going to be damp and warm.

gosaints · February 22, 2012

EURO shows nothing for here. What does fall will be during the day here. NWS currenly has me in 4-6 inches! What the heck

Geos · February 22, 2012

Maybe right by the lake IYBY but out in the burbs "stickage" issues won't be too bad i'm guessing..

Yeah any lake influence would be right by it. < 1 mile. There was a lake breeze the other day on the north shore and the readings down there were about 34°. Lake temperatures in the near shore waters are between 33-35°.

kab2791 · February 22, 2012

Well GRR bumped my 50% chance of snow Thurs Night to 4" thurs night.

NAM shows 0.5" liquid equivalend, GFS 0.6" Euro 0.3"

Looking at the Hourly wx graphs, GRR showing 4-6" across a wide area.

A-L-E-K · February 22, 2012

Yeah any lake influence would be right by it. < 1 mile. There was a lake breeze the other day on the north shore and the readings down there were about 34°. Lake temperatures in the near shore waters are between 33-35°.

Again, i'm not talking about lake influences. This has nothing to do with the lake. It's in the mid 40s in south central Wisconsin. Surface temps will be warm across the board and in fact, so warm, that a lake breeze would cool me off.

Stebo · February 22, 2012

Update based on latest 12z and this storm has ??? abound...lol

http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2012/02/eastern-great-lakes-winter-storm.html

You initial thoughts accumulations look pretty good. I would agree with the amounts and placement 100%.

A-L-E-K · February 22, 2012

If we're going to talk about the NAM which hasn't been right all winter, might as well talk about the UKMET which hasn't been right all winter.

South

Geos · February 22, 2012

Again, i'm not talking about lake influences. This has nothing to do with the lake. It's in the mid 40s in south central Wisconsin. Surface temps will be warm across the board and in fact, so warm, that a lake breeze would cool me off.

Right I know. Actually the lake might help with cooling. - should. I thought Beast was making a point about the ice free, somewhat mild lake.

WestMichigan · February 22, 2012

Well GRR bumped my 50% chance of snow Thurs Night to 4" thurs night.

NAM shows 0.5" liquid equivalend, GFS 0.6" Euro 0.3"

Looking at the Hourly wx graphs, GRR showing 4-6" across a wide area.

Is that point and click or a zone forecast?

BeastFromTheEast · February 22, 2012

Right I know. Actually the lake might help with cooling. - should. I thought Beast was making a point about the ice free, somewhat mild lake.

Nah I was more getting at the how the Downtown surfaces usually always have more trouble with "stickage".. No biggie..

Chicago Storm · February 22, 2012

Maybe right by the lake IYBY but out in the burbs "stickage" issues won't be too bad i'm guessing..

we'll still have issues...especially with iffy BL temps for a time and if rates are generally light.

wxhstn74 · February 22, 2012

Update based on latest 12z and this storm has ??? abound...lol

http://weatherhistor...nter-storm.html

You initial thoughts accumulations look pretty good. I would agree with the amounts and placement 100%.

*Tks...until the next model run..lol

A-L-E-K · February 22, 2012

Right I know. Actually the lake might help with cooling. - should. I thought Beast was making a point about the ice free, somewhat mild lake.

That's fine, but light winds off a low-mid 30 degree lake won't do anything that a day in the mid-40s 50 miles from the lake won't do better. Surface temps will be warm region wide and whoever sees snow will need favorable timing and good rates to even come close to maximizing qpf into snow.

BeastFromTheEast · February 22, 2012

we'll still have issues...especially with iffy BL temps for a time and if rates are generally light.

No doubt, its late Feb now.. But rates should be good enough for a small window for some ok/decent accums..

A-L-E-K · February 22, 2012

Nah I was more getting at the how the Downtown surfaces usually always have more trouble with "stickage".. No biggie..

I get it, but wasn't talking about a sidewalk on Michigan Ave. and my father in rural McHenry described the same thing. Warm temps are going to be an issue.

kab2791 · February 22, 2012

Is that point and click or a zone forecast?

point

hm8 · February 22, 2012

DTX seems to be going with 3-6"

Thundersnow12 · February 22, 2012

If we're going to talk about the NAM which hasn't been right all winter, might as well talk about the UKMET which hasn't been right all winter.

South

looks a hair south of the Euro but not by much.

hm8 · February 22, 2012

hawkeye_wx · February 22, 2012

I certainly did not expect to see a winter storm watch issued for my area. I'm going to remain skeptical unless I see more support tonight & tomorrow morning.

That is an interesting HPC map showing the snow band going to my south.

A-L-E-K · February 22, 2012

looks a hair south of the Euro but not by much.

nice to have a good old fashion foreign vs domestic model battle

Member Statistics

All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

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