All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

A-L-E-K · February 22, 2012

it's just a watch and can easily be downgraded to an advisory if need be.

Jonger · February 22, 2012

SWW ftw.

One happy arctic cat.

2012 ski doo renegade now

gosaints · February 22, 2012

Lots of model discrepancy.. NMM and ARW both north.

Geos · February 22, 2012

CMC little south of the GFS:

12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_036.jpg

Hoosier · February 22, 2012

Some interesting developments. Now we see if the Euro backs it up.

Ajdos · February 22, 2012

Euro looks good! I THINK

snowstormcanuck · February 22, 2012

Euro looks good! I THINK

Looks more like it's previous continuity rather than today's 0z run

Chicago Storm · February 22, 2012

ecmwf came in wetter in a corridor from DSM to ORD to MOP.

Hoosier · February 22, 2012

Boundary layer temps are a question mark but given the amount of forcing likely leading to moderate/heavy rates, that could be overcome. Who knows where that band sets up though. Pretty considerable model differences in terms of location.

Thundersnow12 · February 22, 2012

12z Euro is sharper with the mid-level wave and a bit stronger at the sfc. Sfc low passes through southern IL. Main band runs almost E-W along and north of I-80.

wisconsinwx · February 22, 2012

Boundary layer temps are a question mark but given the amount of forcing likely leading to moderate/heavy rates, that could be overcome. Who knows where that band sets up though. Pretty considerable model differences in terms of location.

With the short range models (the NMM and ARW), the GFS, and the NAM north of the GEM and Euro, I might lean on the northern end of the range, but then again that would be :weenie: of me.

Ajdos · February 22, 2012

Looks more like it's previous continuity rather than today's 0z run

Yup.. I think anyone north of I94 in S/E Michigan has a chance to see several inches if everything pans out...

BowMeHunter · February 22, 2012

ecmwf came in wetter in a corridor from DSM to ORD to MOP.

nice .50"+ up to cheese border. .25+ north and south of that.

Stevo6899 · February 22, 2012

Yup.. I think anyone north of I94 in S/E Michigan has a chance to see several inches if everything pans out...

just me being superstitious, but not being in the bullseye this far out is good. Still a few minor shifts are likely and hopefully it works out for us and we get our first advisory.

A-L-E-K · February 22, 2012

With the short range models (the NMM and ARW), the GFS, and the NAM north of the GEM and Euro, I might lean on the northern end of the range, but then again that would be of me.

agree

Ajdos · February 22, 2012

just me being superstitious, but not being in the bullseye this far out is good. Still a few minor shifts are likely and hopefully it works out for us and we get our first advisory.

We kinda are in the bullseye with the Euro lol... ... but yeah I agree.. I think a WWA looks likely..

Ajdos · February 22, 2012

However I do see some issues as far as a dry slot for Monroe, possibly Wayne, eastern counties...I think that should be watched during the storm ..nowcasting..

snowstormcanuck · February 22, 2012

However I do see some issues as far as a dry slot for Monroe, possibly Wayne, eastern counties...I think that should be watched when the storm has formed..nowcasting..

EURO wundermap does seem to indicate a gradient between I-69 and the OH border.

snowstormcanuck · February 22, 2012

If Joe or Kab are around, EURO QPF would be greatly appreciated.

Ajdos · February 22, 2012

EURO wundermap does seem to indicate a gradient between I-69 and the OH border.

Yup...Someone could get a good dumping if everything works out...I can see some intense bands developing...

A-L-E-K · February 22, 2012

Final Call. IMBY 1/3"

Big Winner Bonus Call: Rockford 2"

(LOT centric)

Chicago Storm · February 22, 2012

12z ECMWF:

MSN:

FRI 00Z 24-FEB   0.9    -4.1    1002	  83	  94    0.04	 533	 532   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB  -1.2    -5.0    1003	  87	 100    0.14	 530	 528   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -2.8    -7.6    1005	  85	 100    0.09	 527	 523   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.2    -8.6    1008	  64	  77    0.02	 527	 521   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.5    -8.5    1011	  74	  99    0.02	 528	 519   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -6.1   -11.8    1015	  63	  71    0.01	 527	 515

MKE:

FRI 00Z 24-FEB   0.7    -3.7    1002	  90	 100    0.06	 535	 533   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.1    -4.8    1001	  87	 100    0.14	 532	 531   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.7    -5.8    1003	  89	 100    0.14	 527	 525   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.9    -8.8    1007	  67	 100    0.05	 527	 522   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.7    -7.9    1010	  78	  87    0.02	 528	 520   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.3    -9.7    1013	  77	  95    0.01	 527	 517   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -4.5   -11.7    1016	  68	  79    0.01	 526	 513

SBM:

 
FRI 06Z 24-FEB  -0.9    -5.6    1003	  80	  96    0.05	 530	 528   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -1.6    -6.9    1004	  88	  99    0.07	 527	 524   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.5    -9.3    1007	  61	  93    0.03	 526	 521   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.1    -8.7    1009	  68	  79    0.01	 527	 519   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.0   -10.3    1012	  77	  96    0.01	 526	 517   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -3.5   -11.9    1015	  74	  96    0.01	 526	 514

CID:

 
THU 18Z 23-FEB   2.7    -1.3	 998	  93	 100    0.12	 536	 538   
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   1.4    -2.8	 999	  98	  97    0.17	 533	 534   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.4    -4.7    1004	  91	  98    0.16	 530	 527   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -1.4    -7.7    1009	  77	  91    0.03	 529	 522   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.0    -8.2    1013	  56	  59    0.01	 530	 520

DVN:

 
THU 18Z 23-FEB   4.2    -1.2	 998	  90	 100    0.20	 537	 539   
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.8    -1.3	 998	  97	  98    0.16	 535	 537   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.7    -4.2    1001	  98	 100    0.20	 531	 530   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.4    -7.1    1007	  88	  98    0.12	 529	 523   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   3.5    -8.7    1011	  49	  98    0.00	 530	 521   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.2    -9.4    1015	  45	  36    0.01	 530	 518

RFD:

 
THU 18Z 23-FEB   4.4    -2.2    1000	  77	  87    0.01	 536	 536   
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   1.2    -3.3    1000	  99	 100    0.14	 536	 536   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.2    -4.2    1000	  95	  97    0.15	 531	 531   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -1.4    -6.1    1004	  88	 100    0.16	 528	 524   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.0    -8.1    1008	  63	  82    0.03	 528	 522   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.1    -8.2    1012	  75	  84    0.03	 529	 519   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -6.0   -11.4    1015	  64	  42    0.01	 528	 516

ORD:

 
THU 18Z 23-FEB   4.3    -2.3    1002	  80	  80    0.01	 537	 536   
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.5    -2.9    1000	  93	 100    0.10	 538	 538   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.9    -2.9	 999	  99	  87    0.13	 534	 535   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.1    -5.2    1001	  92	  98    0.21	 528	 527   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.9    -8.3    1007	  65	 100    0.05	 528	 522   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.1    -7.7    1011	  76	  89    0.02	 529	 520   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.3    -9.9    1014	  73	  61    0.03	 528	 517

MDW:

 
THU 18Z 23-FEB   4.0    -2.1    1002	  83	  87    0.01	 538	 537   
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.8    -1.9    1000	  92	 100    0.08	 538	 539   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.5    -1.4	 999	  97	  74    0.08	 535	 536   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.5    -5.1    1001	  94	  95    0.16	 528	 527   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.8    -8.1    1007	  67	  99    0.05	 529	 523   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   1.1    -7.6    1011	  72	  91    0.03	 529	 520   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -1.3    -9.7    1014	  70	  59    0.02	 528	 518

VPZ:

 
THU 18Z 23-FEB   4.6    -1.9    1002	  78	 100    0.01	 540	 538   
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.8    -0.2	 999	  94	  90    0.07	 540	 541   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   2.5	 1.6	 998	  93	  60    0.01	 538	 540   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.8    -3.9	 998	  99	  85    0.04	 529	 531   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.2    -7.2    1007	  85	 100    0.05	 529	 523   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.5    -7.4    1011	  79	  99    0.04	 529	 520   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -0.6    -9.1    1013	  77	  77    0.03	 528	 518

FWA:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.3	 1.0    1000	  86	  82    0.04	 543	 543   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   3.2	 4.2	 997	  87	  52    0.02	 543	 545   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   3.7    -0.6	 997	  93	   4    0.02	 536	 539   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   4.8    -4.9    1003	  66	  80    0.02	 530	 528   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.1    -7.3    1010	  79	  98    0.02	 529	 521   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -0.9    -8.1    1012	  84	  97    0.01	 529	 519   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -1.6   -10.5    1015	  64	  46    0.01	 529	 517

MKG:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.7    -4.3    1002	  74	  88    0.01	 535	 534   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.8    -4.6    1001	  88	 100    0.08	 534	 533   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.3    -5.5    1000	  91	 100    0.13	 527	 527   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.9    -6.6    1004	  80	  99    0.12	 527	 523   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.6    -9.2    1009	  70	  99    0.04	 527	 519   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.5    -9.5    1010	  81	  85    0.01	 526	 518   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -3.9   -10.7    1014	  81	 100    0.02	 526	 516   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB  -0.4   -11.4    1020	  65	  75    0.02	 532	 517   
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -1.7   -11.3    1024	  62	  30    0.01	 544	 526

GRR:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.1    -4.0    1002	  74	 100    0.01	 537	 535   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.8    -4.0    1000	  96	  94    0.12	 536	 535   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.2    -5.2	 999	  95	 100    0.14	 528	 529   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.4    -6.9    1003	  77	  98    0.18	 527	 525   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -1.4    -8.5    1009	  82	 100    0.06	 527	 520   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -5.2    -9.6    1010	  82	  89    0.01	 526	 518   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -6.4   -10.3    1013	  88	  99    0.00	 526	 516   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   0.5   -11.4    1018	  54	  84    0.01	 532	 517   
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -5.4   -11.0    1024	  73	  36    0.01	 544	 525

BTL:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.1    -3.1    1002	  84	 100    0.03	 539	 537   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.3    -2.3	 999	  94	  84    0.09	 538	 538   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.4    -3.8	 998	  95	  86    0.13	 530	 532   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.0    -6.5    1003	  86	  94    0.17	 527	 525   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -1.2    -8.0    1009	  87	 100    0.06	 528	 520   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -4.7    -9.1    1011	  91	  90    0.01	 527	 518   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -5.1   -10.2    1013	  90	  95    0.01	 527	 516   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   0.3   -10.8    1018	  55	  89    0.03	 532	 517   
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -6.3   -10.4    1024	  77	  32    0.01	 545	 525

ADG:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.7    -2.4    1002	  75	  99    0.01	 541	 539   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.5    -1.3    1000	  83	  94    0.07	 541	 541   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.4    -0.2	 997	  94	  14    0.05	 535	 537   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.1    -6.1    1000	  80	  92    0.07	 528	 528   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.6    -6.7    1007	  84	  98    0.03	 528	 522   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.8    -9.0    1010	  81	  94    0.02	 527	 518   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -2.7    -9.7    1012	  85	  88    0.00	 527	 517   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   1.8    -9.8    1017	  47	  91    0.02	 531	 517   
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -1.5   -10.3    1024	  65	  39    0.01	 542	 524

DTW:

 
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.2    -2.5    1001	  79	  98    0.04	 541	 540   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.1    -1.3	 997	  91	  40    0.10	 535	 537   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.1    -5.3	 999	  88	  94    0.08	 528	 529   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.7    -7.0    1006	  87	  95    0.03	 528	 522   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.1    -9.2    1009	  82	  95    0.04	 526	 519

YKF:

 
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.5    -3.8	 999	  84	  99    0.10	 537	 538   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.6    -3.1	 996	  92	  33    0.12	 530	 533   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.5    -7.2    1000	  88	  89    0.09	 526	 526   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -1.8    -8.5    1004	  89	  86    0.01	 523	 520   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -2.9    -9.5    1006	  89	  92    0.01	 523	 518   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB  -0.3   -10.2    1010	  63	  97    0.02	 527	 519

YYZ:

 
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.4    -4.9    1001	  89	  99    0.04	 537	 537   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.7    -2.9	 996	  95	  24    0.17	 531	 535   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.4    -6.4	 998	  91	  92    0.10	 525	 527   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -0.9    -8.0    1002	  85	  90    0.01	 523	 521   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -2.0    -9.7    1005	  82	  98    0.01	 522	 518   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   0.3   -10.6    1009	  60	  97    0.01	 526	 519

Hoosier · February 22, 2012

Final Call. IMBY 1/3"

Big Winner Bonus Call: Rockford 2"

(LOT centric)

This seems like a good time for one of your 1-10" calls. 10" if someone sits under the heavy band for a long time.

BowMeHunter · February 22, 2012

Waukegan FTW.

A-L-E-K · February 22, 2012

Waukegan FTW.

No doubt Geos is gonna jackpot 11"

BeastFromTheEast · February 22, 2012

nice .50"+ up to cheese border. .25+ north and south of that.

Looks like .41 for MKE according to Joe's QPF list..

BeastFromTheEast · February 22, 2012

wtf? did Beast from the East break into MKE offices and start sending out forecasts.

Yeah I did.. You want one too for your area?

Thundersnow12 · February 22, 2012

Geez timing of precip going to be key.

wisconsinwx · February 22, 2012

Yeah I did.. You want one too for your area?

Well played, and I would like that to be upgraded to a Blizzard Warning please for Milwaukee and Madison. :whistle:

Geos · February 22, 2012

No doubt Geos is gonna jackpot 11"

:snowing: !!! I do like my location. :weenie: Hopefully it won't disappoint. :drunk:

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All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

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