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All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

The ECMWF hasn't had anything interesting since Monday's 12z.

It is seriously lacking QPF. It is a horrible run. That crap system that passes through tomorrow the euro strengthens enough to act like blocker which sends our system a little too far se and seriously delays bombing and thus leaves most high and dry with only a .10 to a .25 of a inch qpf.

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

So after a wonderful surprise of the 00z GFS, GEM, and UKMET all converge to give southern MI a snowstorm, instead of joining the party the EURO says no, just a long duration very light qpf event.

Pretty much. Considering what happened to that mid Atlantic storm ( exact same thing ) i for one wont write the euro off.

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

DTX on boards!

LARGE SCALE FORCING IS IMPRESSIVE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 850 MB

FRONTAL ZONE BECOMING VERY ACTIVE. BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION

CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...IT

LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT

(EXCEPT MAYBE RIGHT NEAR THE OHIO BORDER). 850 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY

PROGGED TO BE AROUND 3 G/KG ACROSS THE M-59 CORRIDOR WITH UP TO 4

G/KG NEAR THE OHIO BORDER THURSDAY EVENING (PER GFS). SO MOISTURE IS

NOT AN ISSUE. INSTABILITY IS ALSO DECIDEDLY HIGH (NEGATIVE EPV) AND

ACROSS A DEEP LAYER ABOVE THE 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE. THUS...EMBEDDED

HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY TO OCCUR...AND I WILL BE FORECASTING 2 TO 4

INCHES FOR A GOOD SECTION OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT.

THESE TOTALS DO NOT INCLUDE FRIDAY...AS WE TAP INTO THE 700 MB

FGEN/DEFORMATION. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS A DRY SLOT WILL WORK THROUGH

THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...SO NOT SURE THE AREAS IN THE SOUTH WHO

ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE MOST SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE MUCH MORE

THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH FRIDAY. THIS IS A SENSITIVE FORECAST DUE TO

THE AMPLIFICATION CONCERNS...AS A SLOWER PROCESS WILL LEAD TO

CONSIDERABLY LESS QPF...WHILE FASTER AMPLIFICATION WOULD LEAD TO

MORE QPF AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION CONCERNS ACROSS THE FAR

SOUTHEAST AREAS...AS SURFACE LOW COULD END UP SLIDING NORTHWEST OF

ERIE PA. A LOOK AT THE 00Z EUROPEAN GIVES ME SOME CONCERN WITH THE

FORECAST...AS IT HAS NOW REALLY STRINGING OUT THE PV/VORTICITY AND

IS SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW/WAVE WEAKENING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE

APPALACHIANS...BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP WHEN THE SYSTEM REACHES THE

EAST COAST LATE FRIDAY. STILL...GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A GOOD

CLUSTERING WITH LOW TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA/OHIO...AND THE

00Z NOGAPS ALSO GIVES SUPPORT TO A SMALL BUT STRONG SYSTEM IMPACTING

SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT.

AHHAHAH...using NOGAPS... UGH.. ALso I thought the Euro was being disregarded yesterday and so forth..

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

DTX....

COPIOUS AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/PV NOW COMING ASHORE OF BRITISH

COLUMBIA...WHICH WILL BE DESCENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THE TROUGH AXIS

LOOKS TO BE REMAINING DISTANTLY POSITIVE ORIENTED THURSDAY

NIGHT...BUT BECOME MORE NEUTRAL ON FRIDAY. THIS AMPLIFICATION IS

VERY IMPORTANT AND WILL DICTATE HOW FAST THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND

TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. THE GOOD NEWS TONIGHT IS THE

GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE LINING UP FAIRLY WELL FOR THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY

TIME PERIOD. THE BAD NEWS...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOW EXPECTED FOR

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

Bad News? Sad to see a met disappointed that active wx is on the way.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

In this winter there's no surprise but at least GFS/GGEM look good

If anything the 12z EURO comes back more west

Glad you're confident. Because I'm not. Losing the EURO when all the other models were coming around to its solution was a huge chink in the armour. Yeah, it might be a one off thing, but the way this winter has gone...:(

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turtlehurricane

turtlehurricane

Posted
Posted

GFS has really shifted as of 6z, gives Madison 0.6" of liquid that's probably all snow. Might see some mixing and lack of sticking if the boundary layer ends up warm, which is known to happen this time of year. Then again clouds and evaporational cooling should do the job. Also, the bullseye is narrow and any shift will bring that away from here.

I'll start getting excited if the 12z, 18z, and 00z follow suit.

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dmc76

dmc76

Posted
Posted

DTX....

COPIOUS AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/PV NOW COMING ASHORE OF BRITISH

COLUMBIA...WHICH WILL BE DESCENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THE TROUGH AXIS

LOOKS TO BE REMAINING DISTANTLY POSITIVE ORIENTED THURSDAY

NIGHT...BUT BECOME MORE NEUTRAL ON FRIDAY. THIS AMPLIFICATION IS

VERY IMPORTANT AND WILL DICTATE HOW FAST THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND

TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. THE GOOD NEWS TONIGHT IS THE

GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE LINING UP FAIRLY WELL FOR THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY

TIME PERIOD. THE BAD NEWS...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOW EXPECTED FOR

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

Bad News? Sad to see a met disappointed that active wx is on the way.

It's really sad. It's not like we have had 356 inches this season

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SpartyOn

SpartyOn

Posted
Posted

DTX....

COPIOUS AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/PV NOW COMING ASHORE OF BRITISH

COLUMBIA...WHICH WILL BE DESCENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THE TROUGH AXIS

LOOKS TO BE REMAINING DISTANTLY POSITIVE ORIENTED THURSDAY

NIGHT...BUT BECOME MORE NEUTRAL ON FRIDAY. THIS AMPLIFICATION IS

VERY IMPORTANT AND WILL DICTATE HOW FAST THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND

TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. THE GOOD NEWS TONIGHT IS THE

GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE LINING UP FAIRLY WELL FOR THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY

TIME PERIOD. THE BAD NEWS...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOW EXPECTED FOR

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

Bad News? Sad to see a met disappointed that active wx is on the way.

DTX is the best office for reasons like this. They don't weenie out in the winter. When I took a tour of that place last Spring I was shocked of the professionalism. Their Mets are cool as hell and also understand the negative affects of nasty weather on the inhabitants of the **** hole SeMi. Besides a slight few of the sadists, weirdos and us weather nerds, people hate the winter around here. This area truly is a Summer place.

Personally I don't want pro Mets getting all excited over extreme weather. I want calm and casual forecasting.

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weatherpsycho

weatherpsycho

Posted
Posted

...

Bad News? Sad to see a met disappointed that active wx is on the way.

There are METs that do not have the passion, lost the passion or are just in 'burn-out' mode. Like any job (keep in mind this is a job for them) there maybe passion to begin but everyday doing it, years of schooling and all the wonderful politics can burn one out. Unlike most of us weather geeks they cannot just take a break from the weather as it is their job. Plus they do the rotating shifts which has to suck big time.

Personally I cannot image being bummed about snow but there are many who hate it.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

DTX is the best office for reasons like this. They don't weenie out in the winter. When I took a tour of that place last Spring I was shocked of the professionalism. Their Mets are cool as hell and also understand the negative affects of nasty weather on the inhabitants of the **** hole SeMi. Besides a slight few of the sadists, weirdos and us weather nerds, people hate the winter around here. This area truly is a Summer place.

Personally I don't want pro Mets getting all excited over extreme weather. I want calm and casual forecasting.

Objectivity is essential. I agree. I don't see how this met describing accumulating snow as "bad news" aids your argument though. He's actually ascribing a subjective opinion to the weather. Picture it this way, if he said "great news...snow on the way", according to your line of reasoning that'd suggest he's inclined to favor snowier models. Shouldn't the opposite be true? "Bad news...snow on the way" = bias towards less snowy models?

In any event, for a trained professional, I think you can show enthusiasm while still maintaining objectivity. And I do realize we're the select few who actually enjoy snow, and that the majority of the public loath it. But this is a technical discussion not meant for public comsumption.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

There are METs that do not have the passion, lost the passion or are just in 'burn-out' mode. Like any job (keep in mind this is a job for them) there maybe passion to begin but everyday doing it, years of schooling and all the wonderful politics can burn one out. Unlike most of us weather geeks they cannot just take a break from the weather as it is their job. Plus they do the rotating shifts which has to suck big time.

Personally I cannot image being bummed about snow but there are many who hate it.

I'll give you the latter two. The former, I can't see. Why even get into the profession if you're meh about weather?

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted

Objectivity is essential. I agree. I don't see how this met describing accumulating snow as "bad news" aids your argument though. He's actually ascribing a subjective opinion to the weather. Picture it this way, if he said "great news...snow on the way", according to your line of reasoning that'd suggest he's inclined to favor snowier models. Shouldn't the opposite be true? "Bad news...snow on the way" = bias towards less snowy models?

In any event, for a trained professional, I think you can show enthusiasm while still maintaining objectivity. And I do realize we're the select few who actually enjoy snow, and that the majority of the public loath it. But this is a technical discussion not meant for public comsumption.

I do my best to encourage my kids to cherish the seasons and that includes winter obviously. Many parents constantly rail on winter all throughout a child's life and then the kid grows up to equally hate it and generally seek a warmer place to move away to. Even in the worst winters its literally less then may e 12 commutes a year that are really negatively impacted by snow. People get to Hung up with driving dictating there love/hate of winter.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

I do my best to encourage my kids to cherish the seasons and that includes winter obviously. Many parents constantly rail on winter all throughout a child's life and then the kid grows up to equally hate it and generally seek a warmer place to move away to. Even in the worst winters its literally less then may e 12 commutes a year that are really negatively impacted by snow. People get to Hung up with driving dictating there love/hate of winter.

My parents hate snow. My brother's indifferent. I love it. Might be something that's just innate rather than learned.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

omg now the 6z runs give us rain. I give up on these models. Maybe 00z tonight?

WRT the talk of DTX saying "bad news", I am facebook friends with many of the guys at DTX and have spoken to them many times. Its a simple as this: a few of them (including the new coop observer coordinator) love snow (as did now retired Deedler), and some the others, not so much. Clearly the forecaster was in the "not liking snow" group. Its all preference. Thats like me, i dont care about severe weather, but I do think a storm is interesting, and still love the weather.

I have to say though its no different here than in any other northern place. I know lots of people that love snow, lots that hate snow, and lots that are indifferent. In my family, my mom loves it, dad hates it, 3 siblings are in the middle with my bro leaning towards dislike (he does like it in Nov/Dec tho) and my sisters lean toward like (love it Nov-Jan, hate it Feb-Apr). I also know plenty of non-weather hobbyists who love snow. Ive learned being around the public that WAY more people like snow than you think, but you have to "open the door" and deviate from the societal "norm" of griping about it, once they know YOU like it, if they do too, they will admit it. Sounds weird but I work in a pharmacy and deal with hundreds of people a day...I know the public lol.

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