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All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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dmc76

dmc76

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18z GFS verbatum is 0.64" qpf at DTW from about 8pm Thursday to 10am Friday, starting out as a little rain but quickly turning to snow...would KILL for it to verify. Which it wont, but hopefully its a trend.

I like the GFS run even though Im on the northern Fringe. I just think temps will take to long to cool down. Thinking will be in the 40's for most of Thursday. Will see I guess. Maybe another 1.5" surprise similar to today.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

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I like the GFS run even though Im on the northern Fringe. I just think temps will take to long to cool down. Thinking will be in the 40's for most of Thursday. Will see I guess. Maybe another 1.5" surprise similar to today.

Dynamic cooling can do wonders. Even look at DTWs obs today, when it was supposed to be rain here:

08am: 35F, Cloudy

09am: 36F, Lgt Snow

10am: 33F, Snow, Fog

11am: 33F, Lgt Snow

12pm: 34F, Lgt Snow

01pm: 35F, Fog

02pm: 38F, Fog

Also exactly 2 years ago today, we saw a 6-8" storm (which got ousted by the 10" storm a year later on nearly the same date), and I remember that storm it was in the low 40s up to the storms onset, and it immediately cooled down. So stuff like that isnt a big issue, but of course there are many other factors that need to be sorted out before we can get excited for this one.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

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Comparing the 0z H5 progs with the 18z H5 progs valid at the same time, I do notice a slight consolidation of the upper trough, with that vortmax less strung out and further west. Perhaps a slight trend towards the more amplified consensus, but this run should still keep the NAM on the progressive side of the envelope.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

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Comparing the 0z H5 progs with the 18z H5 progs valid at the same time, I do notice a slight consolidation of the upper trough, with that vortmax less strung out and further west. Perhaps a slight trend towards the more amplified consensus, but this run should still keep the NAM on the progressive side of the envelope.

Thru 54 hours, it doesnt look half bad lol. Certainly, alot better than its previous runs. Slightly more amplified but still not fully phased.

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Powerball

Powerball

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A more amplified setup would lead toward a farther southwest low. Thursday's runs will determine it we get any nookie or the continued Celibacy

If we can get the northern stream shortwave to dig southward into at least Texas (CO/NM ideally) we'd be golden. For that to happen, we would need to lose the crud across SE Canada and a much stronger ridge to build along the west coast (not happening with that next shortwave blasting in)

So I'm not holding my breath.

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Stebo

Stebo

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Yeah I just went and checked the 2m temperatures on this precipitation time period. Looks like after 51 hours, N IL is good for snow and lower MI shortly after.

It would be close but one thing in our favor is time of day, this would be starting around 00z in IL/WI and 03-06z across N IN/MI

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

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So far so good on the 00z models. Much as I said about 18z, I would take the 00z GFS and its 0.65" qpf Thurs/Fri, lock it up and run. Taking the GFS verbatum, DTW sees 0.10" qpf (snow) during Friday afternoon with 2m temps in the low 30s, then after a few hour lull we see snow from approx 8pm Thurs to 10am Fri, with another 0.55" qpf.

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