All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

[AppsRunner]

Ha ha. Lock it in! At this point, I would be pretty shocked if we got that much in NW Ohio. DTX said two inches near Toledo.

I'd say 3" is actually plausible for TOL... RR/HRRR have been showing that potential all day. Probably will get dryslotted for most of the night though.

[Chicago Storm]

still have SN here. solid dusting on colder surfaces.

[Jonger]

BOOM! Allegan County 14 inches by Sat morning!!!!!

[A-L-E-K]

latest RUC lingers the defo band off the lake and keeps snow going over Chicago past 12z tomorrow. 1" of QPF over much of Cook Co.

[Snohio]

I'd say 3" is actually plausible for TOL... RR/HRRR have been showing that potential all day. Probably will get dryslotted for most of the night though.

I could see three inches of snow. And I would gladly take it after the winter we have had. At least it will be interesting to watch either way.

[weatherpsycho]

BOOM! Allegan County 14 inches by Sat morning!!!!!

Wish I could go there this weekend but I cannot. Oh well.

[McDude]

Wife said it's snowing at University of Chicago. Nothing here near Midway.

[on_wx]

So when things were looking great they didn't even issue a watch, and now that things are turning to shiite, they issue a warning. lol. Brainiacs at EC. This will bust.

I think they always wait to see what NWS Detroit does first

[huronicane]

95% snow, starting to stick to elevated surfaces.

PS. NCEP SREF Plume Viewer

[A-L-E-K]

Wife said it's snowing at University of Chicago. Nothing here near Midway.

interesting report, some 20-25 dbz returns pushing into the UofC area, kind of surprised they would be snow though.

[dmc76]

weather.com going with 5-9" here

[beavis1729]

Solid snow in Northbrook IL...incredibly huge flakes about 20 minutes ago, now more regular-size (but still large).

But snow has been occurring for the last 30 minutes continuously.

[A-L-E-K]

Solid snow in Northbrook IL...incredibly huge flakes about 20 minutes ago, now more regular-size (but still large).

But snow has been occurring for the last 30 minutes continuously.

LOT nowcast graphic has that area lifting out and the area staying in a light rain lull until much later tonight.

[hm8]

My call for semi...

As usual, localized higher amounts are possible, epecially with the convective possibility of this system

[turtlehurricane]

The mesoscale cold pool associated w/ the band must be becoming more robust based on all these snow reports.

[Chicago Storm]

here's a short video of when the flake size was about quarter size. doesn't show the flake size well, but it's at least some sort of visual...

[beavis1729]

LOT nowcast graphic has that area lifting out and the area staying in a light rain lull until much later tonight.

Yep...and I agree with that.

[A-L-E-K]

here's a short video of when the flake size was about quarter size. doesn't show the flake size well, but it's at least some sort of visual...

nice capture, looked very similar here for a short time when that band passed through but it hung around much longer up your way.

[dmc76]

My call for semi...

Nice! I would just add Northern Half of St. Clair county in 6-9" and Northern Macomb (north of 26 mile RD) in that as well, but other that pretty much what I'm thinking

[A-L-E-K]

Yep...and I agree with that.

It certainly jives with current radar trends. All eyes turning towards Iowa now.

[huronicane]

Getting a coating on the grass now, as well. A real steady snow with some large flakes mixed in.

[turtlehurricane]

Getting a coating on the grass now, as well. A real steady snow with some large flakes mixed in.

Don't get too excited just yet, the snow will melt once that band moves past you. Brings up the interesting question of how to define storm totals when you get complete melting during the storm.

[Snowstorms]

We can't win

I'm p!ssed now. After seeing the 18z Nam and the 19z RUC....we just cant win.......why even bother.

Hopefully 0z runs are more encouraging and the 18z Nam was just a error.

[A-L-E-K]

Don't get too excited just yet, the snow will melt once that band moves past you. Brings up the interesting question of how to define storm totals when you get complete melting during the storm.

since any totals with that band will be <.5", it's not a big deal.

Weenie excerpt from Skillings fb page

"predicted upper winds reveals the potential for eye-catching ...upward vertical motion locking in tonight. Just looking at the 500 mb (18,000 ft) predicted winds off the Weather Service's WRF model across Illinois for later tonight---115 mph winds are predicted at Peoria while not far away, 17 mph winds at that level in Dubuque on the left front "exit region" of that jet max. Talk about velocity shear!! For those outside the profession wondering what all this means---this sort of atmospheric set-up translates to incredibly strong "lift" of the type likely to generate thunderstorms within the storm's snow area. Snow intensities in thunderstorms can be formidable"

[hm8]

Nice! I would just add Northern Half of St. Clair county in 6-9" and Northern Macomb (north of 26 mile RD) in that as well, but other that pretty much what I'm thinking

Thanks. I'm just thinking that when this thing pivots to the north, its really gonna put an angle on the deform band that may cut out the easternmost counties for the snow

[A-L-E-K]

^{they call this the Cantore special}

[huronicane]

Don't get too excited just yet, the snow will melt once that band moves past you. Brings up the interesting question of how to define storm totals when you get complete melting during the storm.

Oh, I fully expect that, just providing an update.

[dmc76]

I really hope to see Thundersnow tonight. Only seen three times. (Jan 92' Jan 99' Jan 08')

[Thundersnow12]

since any totals with that band will be <.5", it's not a big deal.

Weenie excerpt from Skillings fb page

"predicted upper winds reveals the potential for eye-catching ...upward vertical motion locking in tonight. Just looking at the 500 mb (18,000 ft) predicted winds off the Weather Service's WRF model across Illinois for later tonight---115 mph winds are predicted at Peoria while not far away, 17 mph winds at that level in Dubuque on the left front "exit region" of that jet max. Talk about velocity shear!! For those outside the profession wondering what all this means---this sort of atmospheric set-up translates to incredibly strong "lift" of the type likely to generate thunderstorms within the storm's snow area. Snow intensities in thunderstorms can be formidable"

[Thundersnow12]

^{they call this the Cantore special}

wish I would have looked at those products during the GHD event to compare these to.

Have to think TSSN chances over this area are pretty darn good.