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All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

Thanks!

The 12z GFS came up with a completely different solution and appeared to keep the cut-off in the subtropical jet stream out of the equation and showed a storm deepening as the northern branch takes on a negative tilt:

post-525-0-58851100-1329841445.gif

This is why the NCEP models have different solutions they are keeping the 2 streams separate. Unfortunately the way this winter has gone that is solution that is better than 50% likely. Which is why Euro/Ukie is currently being discounted.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Latest GGEM brings a healthy amount of snowfall to souterrn WI and Central MI.

Clown map from GFS shows 6" here.

Gotta be liking the trends for a band of accumulating snow probably somewhere north of I-80, although I would trim whatever the clown maps have due to marginal temps at least for part of the event.

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
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Going up there first weekend of March, cannot WAIT. Havent been up there in 2 years, cancelled last year since we had deeper snowpack than them (ohhh to have THAT "problem" again). They look to be adding snow, and possibly a lot, in the next few weeks...so it looks like my gamble of waiting til March may have paid off. Its still a bad year for them, but better than nothing. From barren Minnesota to the snowless hills of New Hampshire, the fact that you still need to measure snowpack with a yardstick in the U.P. is a win in my book this year.

I guess we will find out. Just a heads up though, the snow east of Munising isnt very impressive. It has gone through 200 melt/freeze cycles and the snow is basically brown. This next 2 week period will be make or break for you though.

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Stebo

Stebo

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Gotta be liking the trends for a band of accumulating snow probably somewhere north of I-80, although I would trim whatever the clown maps have due to marginal temps at least for part of the event.

Agree, another trend I have noticed with respect to this event is a slow progression Southward with the band. The last 3 runs of NCEP models have shifted South.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
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984 in the St. Lawrence Valley by 96 hours. I suspect it'll be less intense by 108 compared to the 0z run at 120. In any case, prime track for YYZ. I assume it's a modest hit.

I certainly like the track of the Euro, digs the Northern Stream energy further South, probably would be a good hit for N IN/OH and S MI into ON

YYZ is once again the only area in this region that receives decent QPF that has wintery potential...

FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.1	-0.2	1002	  80	  93	0.01	 543	 541  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   1.3	-0.4	 998	  97	  95	0.15	 540	 542  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB   0.5	-3.0	 994	  96	  83	0.10	 534	 539  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -0.2	-7.2	 993	  84	  97	0.06	 520	 526  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   1.9	-7.4	 994	  63	  99	0.02	 515	 520  
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -2.2   -10.6	1003	  72	  85	0.03	 518	 516

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
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YYZ is once again the only area in this region that receives decent QPF that has wintery potential...

FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.1	-0.2	1002	  80	  93	0.01	 543	 541  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   1.3	-0.4	 998	  97	  95	0.15	 540	 542  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB   0.5	-3.0	 994	  96	  83	0.10	 534	 539  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -0.2	-7.2	 993	  84	  97	0.06	 520	 526  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   1.9	-7.4	 994	  63	  99	0.02	 515	 520  
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -2.2   -10.6	1003	  72	  85	0.03	 518	 516

Another QPF reduction, even though the track seemed to shift west a bit. It's tough to see how this storm develops and not expect at least something in the 4-6" range. But that's the winter of 2011-12 for you.

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Stebo

Stebo

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YYZ is once again the only area in this region that receives decent QPF that has wintery potential...

FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.1	-0.2	1002	  80	  93	0.01	 543	 541  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   1.3	-0.4	 998	  97	  95	0.15	 540	 542  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB   0.5	-3.0	 994	  96	  83	0.10	 534	 539  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -0.2	-7.2	 993	  84	  97	0.06	 520	 526  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   1.9	-7.4	 994	  63	  99	0.02	 515	 520  
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -2.2   -10.6	1003	  72	  85	0.03	 518	 516

I'd argue once again like last night, the BL temps are running too warm compared to everything else.

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

This is why the NCEP models have different solutions they are keeping the 2 streams separate. Unfortunately the way this winter has gone that is solution that is better than 50% likely. Which is why Euro/Ukie is currently being discounted.

Yup, and the GFS ensembles continue to support the op WRT keeping the two streams separate:

post-525-0-12479700-1329852225.gif

The Euro and UK continue to phase the two streams (although the 12z Euro was a bit later with the phase and not as nuclear with the low) and I suspect the Euro ensembles will continue to have many members phase as well when they come out. I agree that phasing is the less likely solution at this point given seasonal trends and the likelihood that given the lack of blocking that it will be hard for the northern stream to get far enough south to phase with the subtropical jet energy.

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wxhstn74

wxhstn74

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The fun has just begun:

Becoming more active as our "winter" begins to wind down. Models have a relatively stormy period the next week with Thu-Fri

the first in a series. The next one follows quickly on the heels Sun Night - Mon. This system remains strangely cold enough for mainly snow though

main energy and sfc low track N of SE Mich. Evidently she doesn't have enough time to pull any warm air the was pushed far south after our Fri buddy.

She does however seem to stick her feet in the Gulf for decent moisture...hmmm. A further south track and......

In any event, on the first system>>>>

http://weatherhistor...nter-storm.html

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

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Posted

Latest GFS (18z) shows a widespread 3-6" across the region, from Southern MI thru SONT. Heavier amounts towards the Niagara/Buffalo region, closer to 6-8".

The GFS seems to be trending towards the Euro/Ukmet/JMA side. These pieces of vort energy and the jet stream displacement across the atmosphere will be hard to handle on the models, thus I'd expect a wide variety of solutions until we start seeing some consistency by tomorrow 0z runs.

I cant speak for the Nam....its more by it self lol.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Wow I leave this forum for a month and I come back to look what's going on today and I see the potential for a storm for YYZ. Not going to get excited though as this winter has had enough dissapointment :axe:

You've been gone for a month? I could have sworn I've seen you post.

In any case, 18z GFS should get your weenie up.

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toronto blizzard

toronto blizzard

Posted
Posted

You've been gone for a month? I could have sworn I've seen you post.

In any case, 18z GFS should get your weenie up.

Well more like I haven't been on the forums because this winter is so depressing but yeah that 18z run sure looks nice but would've been better if it phased the two pieces of energy together like the EURO. I'm assuming the EURO has a good storm for us?

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
Posted

I know this isnt the climate change forum but despite the warm anomalies across most of North America, global temps continue to plunge...coldest on record on AMSU and have been for a while now. Lets see what UAH and RSS come out for February. UAH was at -0.10 for January, the lowest since March 2011.

This storm should have an impact on the storm following this, depending how fast or how slow this moves and the left over pieces of energy. Strong temp gradient pattern building for early march. let the fun begin.

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