All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

[Geos]

I would not rule that out and possibly some scattered power outages if the heavier amounts occur.

That snow was like glued on the trees all night. ...

35° and -SN at De Kalb.

[A-L-E-K]

Given timing, i'll probably crash early and wake up at the ass crack instead of trying to ride it out.

[SchaumburgStormer]

That snow was like glued on the trees all night. ...

35° and -SN at De Kalb.

Big flakes clumps trying to stick, ground just too warm

[Thundersnow12]

Newest HRRR pushes back onset of real defo snows until 6-7z.

fine with me, better chance of school/work closing if its even later.

But it really cranks when the main band gets here.

[dmc76]

from DTX's aviation update .

No mention of sleet and good snowfall rates, I sense a WSW is coming for most of the CWA.

Latest RPM model has sleet not reaching North of Detroit. Should stay all snow for now.

[Geos]

Big flakes clumps trying to stick, ground just too warm

Tonight though will be interesting! Good to hear some flakes are surviving the decent during the middle of the day.

[Chicago Storm]

quarters falling here now.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Tonight though will be interesting! Good to hear some flakes are surviving the decent during the middle of the day.

Best photo I could get, doesnt really do flake size justice.

EDIT: Just FYI, Dekalb airport is directly behing that house.

[A-L-E-K]

fine with me, better chance of school/work closing if its even later.

But it really cranks when the main gets here.

Hard to complain, best snows will be falling during the coldest part of the day.

[Stebo]

quarters falling here now.

Go get a bag you could make some nice cash, (I know you mean snowflake size)

[dmc76]

Best photo I could get, doesnt really do flake size justice.

EDIT: Just FYI, Dekalb airport is directly behing that house.

That home needs some decorative stone or brick on that house

[turtlehurricane]

Tonight though will be interesting! Good to hear some flakes are surviving the decent during the middle of the day.

Considering the coldest spots in the band are at 34 °F and there's going to be no cold air advection until after midnight, I don't think there's much good news here. Night time will do little to nothing for temps due to the cloud shield.

Of course the morning snow band should still work out.

[hawkeye_wx]

Getting light snow here now, although there is zero chance of it accumulating unless the intensity increased 5x or the temp fell 3 degrees.

[DAFF]

SPC given a chance of severe weather all the way up to the northern Ohio line... Given we are north of that a strong possibility of thunder snow I am thinking. With all these various accumulation numbers leads me to think this storm will overproduce just like the last one did. Perhaps the NAM is on to something and the forecasters are gun shy due to all the busts all season.

As for now I'm sticking with the 5" mark here just south of Detroit. (Windsor) I hope the snow ratios increase some 7:1 will crush alot of trees. It has been 5 years about since the last very heavy wet snow of this potential magnitude in these parts.

[SpartyOn]

That home needs some decorative stone or brick on that house

Check your PM box latter I need you to quote a patio for me. Do I get the AmericanWX discount? Jk lol

[Hoosier]

Considering the coldest spots in the band are at 34 °F and there's going to be no cold air advection until after midnight, I don't think there's much good news here. Night time will do little to nothing for temps due to the cloud shield.

Of course the morning snow band should still work out.

All we need is a small amount of cooling in some areas. Getting past sunset should help. The sun is obscured but more energy makes it to the surface at this time of year...you've even posted about that.

[Geos]

Considering the coldest spots in the band are at 34 °F and there's going to be no cold air advection until after midnight, I don't think there's much good news here. Night time will do little to nothing for temps due to the cloud shield.

Of course the morning snow band should still work out.

I have a forecasted low of 29° tonight, which seems too high.

[Thundersnow12]

[Chicago Storm]

quarters falling here now.

make that golf balls.

[A-L-E-K]

SPC snow prob maps are fairly bullish over NE Ilinois

[Thundersnow12]

make that golf balls.

take some video.

[dmc76]

Check your PM box latter I need you to quote a patio for me. Do I get the AmericanWX discount? Jk lol

Will do

[turtlehurricane]

All we need is a small amount of cooling in some areas. Getting past sunset should help. The sun is obscured but more energy makes it to the surface at this time of year...you've even posted about that.

Yeah, there is 0-200 w/m^2 of radiation hitting the surface in areas under the cloud shield, so it'll help when that is shutoff. However, the bigger factor is that the clouds will almost completely reflect longwave radiation trying to escape to space at night. I wouldn't expect normal night time cooling itself to exceed 2 °F.

[Ajdos]

DTX updated my forecast:

Tonight: A slight chance of rain and snow before 7pm, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet. Low around 31. East wind 5 to 8 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 36. Northwest wind between 6 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[hm8]

DTX seems to have taken a couple inches off tonight and added a few for tomorrow in the GRIDS...not changing the overall totals much.

[SpartyOn]

DTX updated my forecast:

Tonight: A slight chance of rain and snow before 7pm, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet. Low around 31. East wind 5 to 8 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 36. Northwest wind between 6 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

AD.

Those are computer generated. They often do not update them with the newest guidance and raw data. Discount those in a heartbeat. Go with there zone forecast if you want an ok text version.

[A-L-E-K]

LOT aviation with good info on timing of changeover

COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE

OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE OHIO

RIVER VALLEY. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...RAIN IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING

NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH FORCING WELL

DEPICTED...ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOW...ON THE NAM 290K ISENTROPIC

SURFACE. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE

TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. DUAL-POL RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE BOTTOM

OF THE MELTING LAYER ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FEET OFF THE SURFACE...BUT

DIABATIC COOLING EFFECTS WILL BE GOING AGAINST WARM ADVECTION

LEADING TO QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS TIMING CHANGE-OVER.

GIVEN WET BULB TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER THE NEXT

SEVERAL HOURS AND GUIDANCE SEEMINGLY A BIT SLOW ON THE TRENDS...BELIEVE

THAT WILL BEGIN TO SEE MIXING MID AFTERNOON...WITH COMPLETE CHANGE

OVER TO SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. STRONGEST UPPER

LEVEL FORCING AS NOTED BY Q-CONVERGENCE AND LOW-MID LEVEL

FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS TO COME OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BETWEEN

00-06Z THIS EVENING. NAM GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR SHOWS VERY STRONG

FGEN BAND SETTING UP RIGHT OVER THE CHICAGO METRO AREA COUPLED WITH

MODEST MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AS NOTED BY NEGATIVE EPV VALUES. THIS

SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES THIS

EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES.

DURING THIS PERIOD EXPECT LIFR VSBY/CIGS. TOTAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED

SHOULD FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH RANGE...BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS

ARE EXPECTED SHOULD HEAVY SNOW BANDS DEVELOP.

[hawkeye_wx]

Been snowing lightly for a while, but now snowing hard with big flakes. This stuff ought to be able to pull some colder air down with it. Wow, just gorgeous.

[A-L-E-K]

Been snowing lightly for a while, but now snowing hard with big flakes. This stuff ought to be able to pull some colder air down with it. Wow, just gorgeous.

awesome buddy, good luck.

[Stebo]

Dtx upgraded to WSW for 5-8 for metro area with 8+ north of M-59. I agree with this going thought 100%