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All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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turtlehurricane

turtlehurricane

Posted
Posted

Tonight though will be interesting! Good to hear some flakes are surviving the decent during the middle of the day.

Considering the coldest spots in the band are at 34 °F and there's going to be no cold air advection until after midnight, I don't think there's much good news here. Night time will do little to nothing for temps due to the cloud shield.

Of course the morning snow band should still work out.

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DAFF

DAFF

Posted
Posted

SPC given a chance of severe weather all the way up to the northern Ohio line... Given we are north of that a strong possibility of thunder snow I am thinking. With all these various accumulation numbers leads me to think this storm will overproduce just like the last one did. Perhaps the NAM is on to something and the forecasters are gun shy due to all the busts all season.

As for now I'm sticking with the 5" mark here just south of Detroit. (Windsor) I hope the snow ratios increase some 7:1 will crush alot of trees. It has been 5 years about since the last very heavy wet snow of this potential magnitude in these parts.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Considering the coldest spots in the band are at 34 °F and there's going to be no cold air advection until after midnight, I don't think there's much good news here. Night time will do little to nothing for temps due to the cloud shield.

Of course the morning snow band should still work out.

All we need is a small amount of cooling in some areas. Getting past sunset should help. The sun is obscured but more energy makes it to the surface at this time of year...you've even posted about that.

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

Considering the coldest spots in the band are at 34 °F and there's going to be no cold air advection until after midnight, I don't think there's much good news here. Night time will do little to nothing for temps due to the cloud shield.

Of course the morning snow band should still work out.

I have a forecasted low of 29° tonight, which seems too high.

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turtlehurricane

turtlehurricane

Posted
Posted

All we need is a small amount of cooling in some areas. Getting past sunset should help. The sun is obscured but more energy makes it to the surface at this time of year...you've even posted about that.

Yeah, there is 0-200 w/m^2 of radiation hitting the surface in areas under the cloud shield, so it'll help when that is shutoff. However, the bigger factor is that the clouds will almost completely reflect longwave radiation trying to escape to space at night. I wouldn't expect normal night time cooling itself to exceed 2 °F.

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

DTX updated my forecast:

Tonight: A slight chance of rain and snow before 7pm, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet. Low around 31. East wind 5 to 8 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 36. Northwest wind between 6 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

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SpartyOn

SpartyOn

Posted
Posted

DTX updated my forecast:

Tonight: A slight chance of rain and snow before 7pm, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet. Low around 31. East wind 5 to 8 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 36. Northwest wind between 6 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

AD.

Those are computer generated. They often do not update them with the newest guidance and raw data. Discount those in a heartbeat. Go with there zone forecast if you want an ok text version.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

LOT aviation with good info on timing of changeover

COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE

OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE OHIO

RIVER VALLEY. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...RAIN IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING

NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH FORCING WELL

DEPICTED...ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOW...ON THE NAM 290K ISENTROPIC

SURFACE. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE

TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. DUAL-POL RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE BOTTOM

OF THE MELTING LAYER ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FEET OFF THE SURFACE...BUT

DIABATIC COOLING EFFECTS WILL BE GOING AGAINST WARM ADVECTION

LEADING TO QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS TIMING CHANGE-OVER.

GIVEN WET BULB TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER THE NEXT

SEVERAL HOURS AND GUIDANCE SEEMINGLY A BIT SLOW ON THE TRENDS...BELIEVE

THAT WILL BEGIN TO SEE MIXING MID AFTERNOON...WITH COMPLETE CHANGE

OVER TO SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. STRONGEST UPPER

LEVEL FORCING AS NOTED BY Q-CONVERGENCE AND LOW-MID LEVEL

FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS TO COME OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BETWEEN

00-06Z THIS EVENING. NAM GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR SHOWS VERY STRONG

FGEN BAND SETTING UP RIGHT OVER THE CHICAGO METRO AREA COUPLED WITH

MODEST MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AS NOTED BY NEGATIVE EPV VALUES. THIS

SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES THIS

EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES.

DURING THIS PERIOD EXPECT LIFR VSBY/CIGS. TOTAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED

SHOULD FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH RANGE...BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS

ARE EXPECTED SHOULD HEAVY SNOW BANDS DEVELOP.

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