All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

[kevlon62]

A steady light rain has commenced in Brookfield.

[turtlehurricane]

going to need some help with this one...

CC is the ratio of the vertical size of a particle to the horizontal size, so if it's ~1 the precip is all rain or snow. Where it's <1 there's multiple types of precip, aka the freezing level.

[QVectorman]

Thanks for the Euro data Chi. Storm. I still think the my original thinking is sound which I like the fact the GFS and NAM 12z both agree on the sweet spot being some where btwn JXN, LAN and Battle Creek. I will adjust DTW to 3-6" and expect them to be on the low end of that...

I'm not putting much stock in this thing going over 8". It's coming out of Wyoming...Barely a gulf connection at 850mb, every other level it has a horrible moisture field. Have to stick with history and say storms coming from Colorado/Wyoming rarely put down more than 8 inches max...always a few isolated areas of 10". I like the NAM swath with a max band running WSW to ENE around Hillsdale/Jackson co. around the higher end of 4-8 with a few isolated spots of up to 10" between JXN, Battle Creek and Lansing and then Dtw at the bottom end of the 4-8

[A-L-E-K]

CC is the ratio of the vertical size of a particle to the horizontal size, so if it's ~1 the precip is all rain or snow. Where it's <1 there's multiple types of precip, aka the freezing level.

thanks

[dmc76]

950am radio Detroit calling for 1-3"

[A-L-E-K]

light mix starting downtown

EDIT: Some really monster sized flakes mixing in...serious fat boys

[SpartyOn]

950am radio Detroit calling for 1-3"

Almost laughable. Have to remember they get weather forecasts cOmpliments of AccuWeather also they are computer generated every 4 hours. Unless its a live cast.

[Stebo]

950am radio Detroit calling for 1-3"

Accuweather, in other words just don't even pay attention to it... The last storm was a Coating to an inch and we had 4.9"

[turtlehurricane]

Gotta love the 50+ dBZ returns on the IL/IA border, likely huge aggregate snowflakes coated with water.

[A-L-E-K]

Gotta love the 50+ dBZ returns on the IL/IA border, likely huge aggregate snowflakes coated with water.

easily inchers here with 35-40 dbz returns.

[dmc76]

Accuweather, in other words just don't even pay attention to it... The last storm was a Coating to an inch and we had 4.9"

Did not know accu does there forecast.

[QVectorman]

CC...

What company are you getting this through...RadarScope?

[A-L-E-K]

chance ORD shows SN or +SN with the next set of obs under that band.

[Chicago Storm]

What company are you getting this through...RadarScope?

correct.

[Geos]

7:1 ratio snow - Skilling. Last time I had those kinds of ratios, my evergreen trees suffered damage. Hopefully not a repeat tonight.

[Thundersnow12]

Geez the Euro holds back precip even longer then the GFS, good snow going still in northeast IL at 18z tomorrow as 850's get down to around -8.

[Hoosier]

7:1 ratio snow - Skilling. Last time I had those kinds of ratios, my evergreen trees suffered damage. Hopefully not a repeat tonight.

I would not rule that out and possibly some scattered power outages if the heavier amounts occur.

[A-L-E-K]

Geez the Euro holds back precip even longer then the GFS, good snow going still in northeast IL at 18z tomorrow as 850's get down to around -8.

this went from a possible evening rush event today, to more of a morning rush tomorrow event.

[SpartyOn]

OT.Ive never seen such poor non NWS forecasting in all my years of being a WX geek. The snow totals being tossed around by the local media match nothing of the general and most recent guidance. Not sure if it's because this is the 1st go around of the winter or if all mets lost faith in the models. Lol

[Thundersnow12]

Friend reports monster size flakes out at NIU after it started as snow, went to rain and then back to snow under the heavier band.

[A-L-E-K]

Friend reports monster size flakes out at NIU after it started as snow, went to rain and then back to snow under the heavier band.

Newest HRRR pushes back onset of real defo snows until 6-7z.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Friend reports monster size flakes out at NIU after it started as snow, went to rain and then back to snow under the heavier band.

Whats falling here now are not flakes, but 2 inch snowballs...

[dmc76]

OT.Ive never seen such poor non NWS forecasting in all my years of being a WX geek. The snow totals being tossed around by the local media match nothing of the general and most recent guidance. Not sure if it's because this is the 1st go around of the winter or if all mets lost faith in the models. Lol

Different totals are all over the place..

[Hoosier]

Whats falling here now are not flakes, but 2 inch snowballs...

Post a pic if you can.

[Chicago Storm]

I saw the heading right your way.

Your gut feeling on where the main show sets up tonight...you buying the RUC?

timing and QPF axis wise, it fits in with the latest guidance fairly well. (ECMWF is essentially the slowest, with basically a 6-18z event.)

as for the 0-3z transition it shows, that's just something we'll have to play by the hour. obviously some will end up being screwed, while others do well within the main band. later start time of the main event could help the situation though.

as for my thinking...

i'm rolling with 2-7" north of I-80, with localized higher amounts where banding sets up (so pretty much what LOT is saying).

probably see a WSW/ENE axis of heavier amounts set up from Lee Co to Cook Co.

[wxhstn74]

Winter Storm To Impact Southeast Lower Michigan Overnight in Friday /Update 2-23-12/

http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/

[A-L-E-K]

Weird that we had a burst of great snow with huge flakes downtown when that pushed through but ORD never got beyond a light mix under similar or heavier returns. Shows just how borderline the thermal situation is right now.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Post a pic if you can.

Tried to get one, iphone doesnt even pick up on the flakes, but takes a great pic of the neighbors house...

[A-L-E-K]

timing and QPF axis wise, it fits in with the latest guidance fairly well. (ECMWF is essentially the slowest, with basically a 6-18z event.)

as for the 0-3z transition it shows, that's just something we'll have to play by the hour. obviously some will end up being screwed, while others do well within the main band. later start time of the main event could help the situation though.

as for my thinking...

i'm rolling with 2-7" north of I-80, with localized higher amounts where banding sets up (so pretty much what LOT is saying).

probably see a WSW/ENE axis of heavier amounts set up from Lee Co to Cook Co.

Thanks, it's wild watching this thing come in slower each run.

[Stebo]

from DTX's aviation update .

FOR DTW...A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE ONSET WILL QUICKLY

TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY INCREASES.

HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL ARRIVE 05Z-10Z...WHERE SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE

HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

No mention of sleet and good snowfall rates, I sense a WSW is coming for most of the CWA.