All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

snowstormcanuck · February 23, 2012

Just getting into range for YYZ. Joe or Kab will probably beat me to it, but we'll see.

Does it look like the sfc low is going to take a sharp left around CLE? Or is it more towards ERI/NW PA.

Geos · February 23, 2012

RUC is getting wetter for northern IL/east-central IA. Skilling sticking to his last night forecast.

turtlehurricane · February 23, 2012

These temperatures are uninspiring, 40 °F in Chicago, 38 °F in Madison. No cold air to work with at all. Sites in northern IL getting the heaviest rains are only down to 34 °F.

Baum · February 23, 2012

meh, 4" still sounds too high...just not feeling the big totals with this one...i'm trying to talk myself into it but the period of heavy snow looks too brief and i think the prolonged rain really kills things.

experience tells me if snows fast enough and hard enough that won't matter Heck, the last two mornings colder surfaces accumulated with 33 degree temps and light snow. Most important is changeover timing....always key in these set ups.

kab2791 · February 23, 2012

If anybody has some early EURO details, sharing them would be an excellent idea.

KMOP: 0.34

KBTL: 0.47

ORD: 0.62

MKE: 0.42

DET: 0.38

YYZ: 0.44

snowstormcanuck · February 23, 2012

KMOP: 0.34

KBTL: 0.47

ORD: 0.62

MKE: 0.42

DET: 0.38

YYZ: 0.44

Any mixing for YYZ? Also, what does the sfc track look like?

xoxo

AppsRunner · February 23, 2012

Does it look like the sfc low is going to take a sharp left around CLE? Or is it more towards ERI/NW PA.

Hard to say, I just have the text data. Seems like the SLP center stays south of CLE and BUF by a pretty good margin though, based on what I can see.

Precip total for YYZ is only about .43" though.

A-L-E-K · February 23, 2012

experience tells me if snows fast enough and hard enough that won't matter Heck, the last two mornings colder surfaces accumulated with 33 degree temps and light snow. Most important is changeover timing....always key in these set ups.

I'm not saying we're getting goose-egged, during peak it's going to stick...I just think that the peak will only account for maybe 50% of model qpf with the rest being plain rain or a sloppy mix.

Chinook · February 23, 2012

WTF am I supposed to do now... GFS shows nada, NAM shows roughly 3-6", RUC is so far from anything I want to shoot myself, and the ARW/NMM are all snow here. This is going to be a very painful event to watch.

If you're in Toledo, assume disappointment and then work from there.

SpartyOn · February 23, 2012

Any mixing for YYZ? Also, what does the sfc track look like?

xoxo

Judging by those QPF numbers it appears that the Euro might be close to the 12z GFS. A couple of these models are going to bust hardcore with track and intensity!

A-L-E-K · February 23, 2012

HRRR still showing the lull period between the WAA rain and defo band around 0z...it's often a few hours slow but you get the idea. Also looks quite convective across central Indiana.

snowstormcanuck · February 23, 2012

Hard to say, I just have the text data. Seems like the SLP center stays south of CLE and BUF by a pretty good margin though, based on what I can see.

Precip total for YYZ is only about .43" though.

Thanks for this. 0.43" is aok with me, assuming it's all snow.

Toledo gets blitzed next time around.

turtlehurricane · February 23, 2012

I'm not saying we're getting goose-egged, during peak it's going to stick...I just think that the peak will only account for maybe 50% of model qpf with the rest being plain rain or a sloppy mix.

This is a good rule to go with considering most people will get a few more hours of rain/non-accumulating frozen precip than what the models are showing. This has been the theme this year in retrospect.

I think even southern Wisconsin will see a fair share of non-accumulating wet stuff, and we're on the northern side of this event.

kab2791 · February 23, 2012

SSC...looks like all snow easily. Highest 2m temp is 0.5c

snowstormcanuck · February 23, 2012

SSC...looks like all snow easily. Highest 2m temp is 0.5c

danke.

Stebo · February 23, 2012

The Euro going up in QPF makes me happy

A-L-E-K · February 23, 2012

This is a good rule to go with considering most people will get a few more hours of rain/non-accumulating frozen precip than what the models are showing. This has been the theme this year in retrospect.

I think even southern Wisconsin will see a fair share of non-accumulating wet stuff, and we're on the northern side of this event.

HRRR keeps pretty much the whole region rain or mixing through 1z

Chicago Storm · February 23, 2012

12z ECMWF

MSN:

 
FRI 06Z 24-FEB  -0.7    -5.5    1004	  80	 100    0.07	 532	 529   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -1.9    -7.2    1003	  83	 100    0.12	 526	 524   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.4    -8.5    1007	  59	  96    0.07	 527	 521   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.1    -8.9    1011	  63	  89    0.02	 528	 519   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -4.9   -11.3    1015	  58	  85    0.01	 528	 515

MKE:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   1.1    -4.1    1003	  77	  72    0.01	 536	 534   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.2    -5.0    1003	  82	 100    0.06	 534	 531   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.5    -6.0    1001	  89	 100    0.14	 527	 527   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB  -0.5    -8.1    1005	  84	 100    0.18	 526	 522   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.1    -8.3    1010	  75	  95    0.04	 527	 520   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.2    -9.9    1013	  81	  94    0.02	 527	 517   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -6.6   -11.7    1017	  68	  67    0.01	 528	 514

SBM:

 
FRI 06Z 24-FEB  -0.4    -6.3    1004	  74	  85    0.03	 532	 529   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -1.2    -6.7    1003	  86	 100    0.06	 527	 525   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB  -0.8    -8.9    1006	  73	 100    0.11	 526	 521   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.4    -8.9    1009	  61	  79    0.02	 527	 519   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.0   -10.7    1013	  71	  93    0.00	 527	 517   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -5.1   -11.8    1017	  67	  98    0.01	 527	 514

CID:

 
THU 18Z 23-FEB   5.0    -1.4	 999	  76	  99    0.03	 536	 537   
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.1    -2.8    1000	  95	 100    0.09	 535	 535   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.9    -3.8    1001	  98	  93    0.20	 530	 529   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.2    -6.8    1006	  90	  97    0.20	 527	 523   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.2    -8.5    1012	  62	  68    0.01	 530	 520

DVN:

 
THU 18Z 23-FEB   4.2    -1.4	 999	  86	  95    0.06	 537	 538   
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.9    -1.9	 999	  96	  98    0.15	 537	 538   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.8    -2.9    1001	  99	  92    0.16	 532	 531   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.1    -6.5    1003	  92	  99    0.24	 527	 524   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.3    -8.3    1010	  61	  78    0.06	 529	 521   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.9    -9.6    1015	  56	  57    0.01	 530	 518

PIA:

 
THU 18Z 23-FEB   6.4	 1.0	 998	  83	  81    0.13	 541	 542   
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   6.1	 0.7	 997	  82	  83    0.01	 541	 543   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   3.8	 0.2	 999	  96	  46    0.02	 537	 538   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   1.3    -5.2    1000	  92	  69    0.07	 526	 526   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   3.9    -6.8    1009	  62	  88    0.07	 530	 523   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   1.6    -9.5    1015	  46	  47    0.03	 531	 519

RFD:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   1.7    -2.9    1001	  92	 100    0.09	 537	 536   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.0    -3.8    1002	  90	 100    0.13	 534	 532   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -1.3    -6.1    1001	  90	 100    0.19	 526	 525   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.6    -8.6    1007	  60	  99    0.13	 528	 522   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.0    -8.2    1012	  71	  90    0.02	 529	 519   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -5.2   -11.3    1016	  65	  71    0.01	 528	 516

ORD:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.1    -2.7    1001	  94	  99    0.05	 539	 538   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.9    -3.1    1001	  95	  99    0.08	 536	 535   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.4    -4.9	 998	  97	  97    0.21	 527	 528   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.5    -7.6    1005	  85	  99    0.24	 527	 523   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.4    -8.1    1011	  77	  99    0.03	 529	 520   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.2   -10.0    1014	  80	  97    0.01	 528	 517

MDW:

 
THU 18Z 23-FEB   3.9    -2.3    1002	  81	  76    0.01	 538	 537   
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.8    -2.0    1000	  92	  98    0.05	 539	 539   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.5    -2.1    1000	  95	  97    0.06	 537	 537   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.6    -3.9	 998	  98	  80    0.16	 527	 529   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.8    -7.4    1005	  85	  99    0.22	 527	 523   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.8    -8.2    1011	  75	  99    0.04	 529	 520   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -1.3    -9.9    1014	  79	  95    0.02	 528	 517

VPZ:

 
THU 18Z 23-FEB   3.4    -1.8    1002	  86	  93    0.01	 539	 538   
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.1    -0.5    1000	  93	  99    0.05	 541	 541   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   2.1    -0.3	 999	  96	  94    0.03	 539	 539   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.9    -1.9	 997	  99	  68    0.08	 530	 532   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.0    -6.9    1002	  86	  89    0.11	 527	 525   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -1.0    -8.4    1011	  85	  98    0.08	 529	 520   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.2    -9.1    1014	  85	 100    0.02	 528	 518   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -4.5   -11.5    1018	  64	  36    0.01	 529	 515

FWA:

 
THU 18Z 23-FEB   6.5    -2.1    1004	  62	  94    0.01	 541	 538   
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.8	 0.6    1000	  92	 100    0.18	 544	 543   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   2.1	 0.9    1000	  96	  61    0.22	 543	 543   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   2.0	 1.1	 997	  97	  62    0.03	 536	 538   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   4.0    -5.5	 999	  68	  59    0.05	 526	 527   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.4    -7.9    1009	  82	  99    0.04	 529	 522   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -1.7    -8.5    1013	  88	  94    0.01	 529	 519   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -1.5   -10.1    1016	  75	  93    0.02	 529	 516   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   0.7   -11.7    1021	  48	  35    0.01	 532	 516

MKG:

 
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.5    -4.7    1002	  70	 100    0.01	 535	 533   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.2    -5.4    1000	  85	 100    0.09	 530	 530   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.4    -7.3    1002	  80	 100    0.22	 525	 524   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.4    -9.8    1008	  68	  97    0.06	 527	 520   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -4.0   -10.7    1011	  78	  77    0.00	 527	 518   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -3.3   -11.8    1014	  78	  91    0.00	 527	 516   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB  -0.8   -11.5    1020	  62	  91    0.02	 531	 515   
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -2.2   -11.8    1024	  62	  41    0.01	 540	 521

GRR:

 
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   2.1    -4.4    1002	  67	 100    0.01	 537	 535   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.1    -4.8	 999	  85	 100    0.11	 531	 532   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB  -0.4    -7.4    1000	  85	 100    0.25	 525	 525   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -1.0    -8.7    1008	  80	 100    0.11	 527	 520   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -7.3   -10.3    1011	  88	  95    0.00	 526	 518   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -7.7   -11.3    1014	  89	  95    0.00	 527	 516   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB  -0.3   -11.1    1018	  60	  91    0.01	 531	 516   
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -5.1   -12.2    1024	  74	  43    0.01	 539	 520

BTL:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.9    -3.2    1002	  75	  97    0.01	 539	 538   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.2    -3.3    1002	  90	 100    0.02	 539	 537   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.0    -3.4	 999	  91	  95    0.13	 533	 534   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.0    -6.7	 998	  89	  89    0.24	 524	 526   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.6    -8.0    1007	  87	  99    0.10	 527	 521   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -5.6    -9.7    1011	  88	  97    0.01	 527	 518   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -7.9   -10.6    1014	  90	  96    0.00	 527	 516   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB  -0.7   -10.7    1019	  66	  90    0.02	 531	 516   
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -4.7   -12.2    1024	  72	  36    0.01	 540	 521

ADG:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   4.1    -2.1    1002	  68	 100    0.01	 541	 539   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.2    -2.0    1002	  84	 100    0.18	 542	 540   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.1    -1.4	 998	  91	  97    0.10	 536	 537   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.2    -4.6	 997	  90	  68    0.15	 525	 527   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.1    -7.7    1006	  84	  97    0.06	 527	 522   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -3.8    -9.6    1010	  80	  99    0.01	 527	 519   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -5.2   -10.0    1013	  82	  92    0.00	 527	 517   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   0.8   -10.8    1017	  51	  94    0.01	 531	 517   
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -4.0   -10.9    1023	  70	  51    0.01	 538	 519

DTW:

 
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.6    -3.3    1003	  77	  99    0.05	 541	 539   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.1    -2.2	 999	  86	  99    0.08	 537	 538   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.6    -4.4	 997	  91	  79    0.16	 526	 528   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.0    -7.9    1004	  85	 100    0.08	 526	 523   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.8    -9.7    1009	  79	  99    0.01	 526	 519   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -5.5   -10.3    1012	  81	  89    0.00	 526	 517   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   0.3   -11.7    1016	  53	  88    0.00	 530	 517   
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -2.5   -10.7    1022	  71	  72    0.01	 536	 519

PHN:

 
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.1    -4.0    1000	  79	 100    0.06	 536	 536   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.3    -4.8	 996	  89	  91    0.22	 527	 531   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.5    -7.9    1001	  88	  99    0.15	 524	 523   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.2    -9.0    1007	  83	  95    0.03	 525	 519   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -3.3   -10.2    1010	  82	  98    0.01	 525	 517   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   0.2   -11.9    1015	  54	  91    0.01	 529	 518   
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -2.6   -11.0    1021	  70	  68    0.01	 535	 518

TDZ:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.7    -1.3    1002	  70	 100    0.01	 542	 540   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.1    -0.5    1002	  93	 100    0.32	 543	 542   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.5	 1.2	 998	  96	  83    0.06	 539	 540   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   3.4    -3.9	 997	  89	  51    0.07	 527	 529   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.5    -7.7    1006	  86	  96    0.05	 527	 523   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.3    -9.3    1010	  80	  98    0.02	 527	 519   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -4.2   -10.0    1013	  84	  94    0.00	 527	 517   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   1.3   -10.9    1017	  51	  96    0.00	 531	 517   
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -2.8   -10.3    1023	  71	  61    0.01	 537	 518

CLE:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.9    -1.3    1003	  74	  99    0.01	 543	 540   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.1	 0.0    1002	  93	  99    0.33	 545	 543   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   2.2	 3.0	 997	  95	  69    0.06	 542	 544   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   6.8    -0.4	 995	  87	  21    0.06	 533	 536   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.6    -6.9    1002	  92	  98    0.04	 527	 525   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -0.7    -8.6    1008	  86	  98    0.03	 527	 520   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -2.7   -10.7    1012	  86	 100    0.00	 526	 517   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB  -0.5   -11.4    1017	  60	  87    0.00	 530	 517   
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -0.9   -10.3    1022	  72	  85    0.01	 535	 518

YKF:

 
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.8    -4.3    1002	  82	 100    0.04	 537	 536   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.1    -3.8	 995	  92	  99    0.17	 532	 536   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.5    -6.3	 995	  93	  99    0.18	 522	 526   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -1.7    -8.5    1002	  88	  91    0.05	 523	 521   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -3.0    -9.3    1005	  86	  95    0.02	 523	 519   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB  -1.1   -10.7    1011	  63	  94    0.01	 527	 519

YYZ:

 
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.5    -3.9	 996	  93	  99    0.18	 533	 536   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.2    -6.1	 994	  97	  97    0.17	 521	 526   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -0.4    -8.3	 999	  84	  92    0.07	 521	 522   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -2.4    -9.5    1004	  79	  93    0.02	 522	 519

AppsRunner · February 23, 2012

If you're in Toledo, assume disappointment and then work from there.

Pretty much my plan. Never was really my storm (and I'm a bit south of TOL) I'd take 1-3" in a short window and be happy with that.

Chicago Storm · February 23, 2012

Any mixing for YYZ? Also, what does the sfc track look like?

xoxo

sub 998mb SLP over Lake Erie at 30hrs...sub 998mb SLP over Lake Ontario at 36hrs.

A-L-E-K · February 23, 2012

:yikes:

RUC continues to creep north along with the HRRR

SchaumburgStormer · February 23, 2012

Rain snow mix falling here. Big fat wet flakes.

turtlehurricane · February 23, 2012

RUC continues to creep north along with the HRRR

The UW-Madison tractor beams are operating at full strength.

A-L-E-K · February 23, 2012

Rain snow mix falling here. Big fat wet flakes.

judging from report, fat flakes are mixing in under the bright banding. that action should pushin into chistormville

Chicago Storm · February 23, 2012

Rain snow mix falling here. Big fat wet flakes.

judging from report, fat flakes are mixing in under the bright banding. that action should pushin into chistormville

-RA/SN here too.

hawkeye_wx · February 23, 2012

Very light mix here with a temp in the mid 30s(boy, if only it was 32 instead). 12z Euro is now more robust with the deformation zone moving through here later. However, this run doesn't have the precip changing to accumulating snow until after 03z. If it can switch over by 00z this Euro run has about 0.4" qpf still to fall.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out. The local mets are still poo-poo'ing this thing, wondering why the nws has issued any advisories at all.

A-L-E-K · February 23, 2012

-RA/SN here too.

I saw the heading right your way.

Your gut feeling on where the main show sets up tonight...you buying the RUC?

Chicago Storm · February 23, 2012

CC...

Geos · February 23, 2012

Looking pretty intense (snow) by midnight on the RPM. Snow through mid morning or later.

A-L-E-K · February 23, 2012

CC...

going to need some help with this one...

Member Statistics

All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

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