All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

[weatherpsycho]

15z RUC coming to it's senses the low is over C IN elongated into C OH.

Still looks to be under-doing the convective portion in northern IN/OH into southern MI. It will be interesting to see how it continues to change throughout the day.

[Stebo]

Just looking at quick text extractions, the GFS has some rain for both of us but it's a razor thin margin.

Maybe for you due to time of day, but out this way it is coming at night and if there is any sort of mixing issues with Rain that would be a couple of hours initially before quickly changing to all snow by 9pm.

[Stebo]

Still looks to be under-doing the convective portion in northern IN/OH into southern MI. It will be interesting to see how it continues to change throughout the day.

HRRR illustrates your point much more correctly, and it doesn't even sniff the dryslot in MI

[wisconsinwx]

Skilling's latest RPM model looks good for many in N Illinois/S Wisconsin. Jackpots areas just to the north of O'Hare with some 8-12" amounts, and even gives much of S Wisconsin 4-6", with 8-10" near the border around Geos' neck of the woods.

[Thundersnow12]

[Chicago Storm]

LOT is going with a WWA north of I-80.

[Thundersnow12]

Skilling's latest RPM model looks good for many in N Illinois/S Wisconsin. Jackpots areas just to the north of O'Hare with some 8-12" amounts, and even gives much of S Wisconsin 4-6", with 8-10" near the border around Geos' neck of the woods.

Hmmm thats interesting.

[Thundersnow12]

LOT is going with a WWA north of I-80.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

1110 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012

...RAIN TO CHANGE TO A WET SNOW AND BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT..

.RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA

THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES

THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HOURS JUST AFTER CHANGEOVER TO

SNOW. SOME ACCOMPANYING THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...AND WHERE THIS OCCUR

THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE MOST FAVORED AREA TO

SEE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS GREATER THAN SIX INCHES IS ACROSS

DEKALB...KANE...DUPAGE...AND NORTHERN COOK COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL

GRADUALLY TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT

THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ILZ005-012-020-240115-

/O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0003.120224T0000Z-120224T1500Z/

/O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0006.120224T0000Z-120224T1200Z/

MCHENRY-KANE-KENDALL-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODSTOCK...AURORA...OSWEGO

1110 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO

6 AM CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS

EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN

EFFECT.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST

ILLINOIS EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES

DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY

TAPERING IN INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS

ACROSS KANE AND SOUTHERN MCHENRY COUNTIES.

* MAIN IMPACT...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY FALL AT RATES GREATER THAN AN

INCH PER HOUR AFTER 7 PM. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN QUICK

ACCUMULATION OF WET SNOW ON ROADS...RESULTING IN SLIPPERY AND

POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...IN ADDITION TO ACCUMULATION AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL

IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND WHIPPED HEAVY WET

SNOW CAUSING SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITIES THIS LATER THIS

EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE HIGH LIQUID CONTENT OF THE

SNOW...THOSE WITH HEALTH CONCERNS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN

SHOVELING. THIS ALSO MAY LEAD TO WEIGHTED DOWN BRANCHES AND

POWER LINES.

[SchaumburgStormer]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

1110 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012

...RAIN TO CHANGE TO A WET SNOW AND BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT..

.RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA

THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES

THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HOURS JUST AFTER CHANGEOVER TO

SNOW. SOME ACCOMPANYING THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...AND WHERE THIS OCCUR

THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE MOST FAVORED AREA TO

SEE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS GREATER THAN SIX INCHES IS ACROSS

DEKALB...KANE...DUPAGE...AND NORTHERN COOK COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL

GRADUALLY TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT

THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

I find this funny, as they say my area is a favored area to see 6+ inches, yet, my WWA says 3-6, lower than the rest of the chciago metro which says 4-7.

[AppsRunner]

WTF am I supposed to do now... GFS shows nada, NAM shows roughly 3-6", RUC is so far from anything I want to shoot myself, and the ARW/NMM are all snow here. This is going to be a very painful event to watch.

[Hoosier]

I find this funny, as they say my area is a favored area to see 6+ inches, yet, my WWA says 3-6, lower than the rest of the chciago metro which says 4-7.

Looks like the WAA says 4-7" unless I'm reading it wrong.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Looks like the WAA says 4-7" unless I'm reading it wrong.

ILZ003-004-008-010-011-019-240115-

/O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0003.120224T0000Z-120224T0900Z/

/O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0006.120224T0000Z-120224T1200Z/

WINNEBAGO-BOONE-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-LA SALLE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...OREGON...DIXON...

DEKALB...OTTAWA

1110 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO

6 AM CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS

EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN

EFFECT.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A WET SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL

ILLINOIS EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES

DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY

TAPERING IN INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...THREE TO SIX INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS

ACROSS DEKALB AND EASTERN LEE AND OGLE COUNTIES.

Issued a slightly different version for the western areas.

[Thundersnow12]

12z GFS

[Hoosier]

ILZ003-004-008-010-011-019-240115-

/O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0003.120224T0000Z-120224T0900Z/

/O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0006.120224T0000Z-120224T1200Z/

WINNEBAGO-BOONE-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-LA SALLE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...OREGON...DIXON...

DEKALB...OTTAWA

1110 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO

6 AM CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS

EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN

EFFECT.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A WET SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL

  ILLINOIS EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES

  DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY

  TAPERING IN INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...THREE TO SIX INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS

  ACROSS DEKALB AND EASTERN LEE AND OGLE COUNTIES.

Issued a slightly different version for the western areas.

Ah I see. I figured you were in Schaumburg based on your member name. Never actually noticed you're somewhere else.

[Hoosier]

Must've been some interesting discussion at LOT about whether to go with an advisory or a warning. The 6"/12 hour criteria should be met in some areas and any convective enhancement could boost totals. OTOH the greatest impacts will fall between rush hours.

[Chicago Storm]

latest LOT map...

[Geos]

Skilling's latest RPM model looks good for many in N Illinois/S Wisconsin. Jackpots areas just to the north of O'Hare with some 8-12" amounts, and even gives much of S Wisconsin 4-6", with 8-10" near the border around Geos' neck of the woods.

I have 4-8" in my forecast now. It would be ideal to have the qpf move in towards night. Probably will see some rain before 9pm.

Skilling just posted this:

[AppsRunner]

Yep, can't wait till they replace the RUC with the RR/HRRR

[A-L-E-K]

bright banding and rain pushing into the I80 corridore of Chicagoland. The area will see a few hours of light/mod rain....the wet surfaces won't help with accums.

[Hoosier]

I have 4-8" in my forecast now. It would be ideal to have the qpf move in towards night. Probably will see some rain before 9pm.

Skilling just posted this:

Alek bubble

[A-L-E-K]

Alek bubble

meh, 4" still sounds too high...just not feeling the big totals with this one...i'm trying to talk myself into it but the period of heavy snow looks too brief and i think the prolonged rain really kills things.

[Thundersnow12]

meh, 4" still sounds too high...just not feeling the big totals with this one...i'm trying to talk myself into it but the period of heavy snow looks too brief and i think the prolonged rain really kills things.

Good conference call by LOT

Liking I-88 corridor and just north for the heaviest totals. Mentioned "spring type atmosphere aloft with a winter atmosphere at the sfc".

Changeover time around 7pm, later as you go south. TSSN chances best a few hours after the changeover.

[kab2791]

Down to 990mb according to SPC meso analysis over south central MO

[Ajdos]

WXYZ calling for 2-3 for Detroit.

[A-L-E-K]

Godo conference call by LOT

Liking I-88 corridor and just north for the heaviest totals. Mentioned "spring type atmosphere aloft with a winter atmosphere at the sfc".

Changeover time around 7pm, later as you go south. TSSN chances best a few hours after the changeover.

Not sure about the winter atmosphere at the surface since surface temps are pushing 40 right now. Hard to argue with I88 and north, which is fine for MBY. Not so sure about the 7pm changeover...I think it's a few hours later as we'll be in a lull then. TSSN window looks to be about 2-3 hours long somewhere around midnight.

[snowstormcanuck]

If anybody has some early EURO details, sharing them would be an excellent idea.

[Hoosier]

meh, 4" still sounds too high...just not feeling the big totals with this one...i'm trying to talk myself into it but the period of heavy snow looks too brief and i think the prolonged rain really kills things.

I think the thing to remember is that the snow portion wasn't really expected to get going in earnest until evening. After that it's rip city and the timing and heavy rates should be able to overcome the wet ground without much trouble imo.

[A-L-E-K]

I think the thing to remember is that the snow portion wasn't really expected to get going in earnest until evening. After that it's rip city and the timing and heavy rates should be able to overcome the wet ground without much trouble imo.

Oh I know, i'm expecting a few hour window of rates at or around 1" per hour. I'm still skeptical after the last event that ripped large flakes and didn't accumulate because of warm wet surfaces...This should be more intense but I think it keeps things in check.

[dmc76]

WXYZ calling for 2-3 for Detroit.

There usually on the high end for local media.

[AppsRunner]

If anybody has some early EURO details, sharing them would be an excellent idea.

Just getting into range for YYZ. Joe or Kab will probably beat me to it, but we'll see.