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All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted

It's possible

I hope not! Looking for a Chicago to Toronto Jackpot

This is the first year where i don't root for IMBY. I'm more of a (Where ever the snowmobile trails are ) guy. I just dropped $13,000 this year on a sled and gear... looking out my window at the snow does no good when the police give you tickets for riding a snowmobile around here. Only state parks are ridable and they kinda suck compared to DNR trails.

SnowMobileTrailMap_368345_7.png

All the areas in Purple in lower Michigan have NO DNR TRAILS. Means=zero fun for me. I really want to see Van Buren get bombed, very nice 75 mile loop through that county.

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hawkeye_wx

hawkeye_wx

Posted
Posted

Quad Cities nws talking about a possible advisory this evening.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

1026 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012

.UPDATE...

PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN HAS SPREAD NORTHWARD TO

THE I-80 CORRIDOR AT MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY

RISE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS

JUST ENOUGH. HOWEVER JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES

ARE BELOW FREEZING FROM I-80 NORTHWARD AND REMAINS THAT WAY ALL

DAY. WE COULD BE ALTERNATING BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW IN OUR NORTH

DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION.

AS THE SURFACE LOW IN MO ORGANIZES AND MOVES INTO NORTHERN OHIO

LATER TONIGHT A DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY AS SNOW...

DEVELOPS ACROSS THE DVN CWA. ONCE SUNSET ARRIVES THE BOUNDARY

LAYER SHOULD COOL JUST ENOUGH TO TURN EVERYTHING OVER TO ALL SNOW

WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF

ACCUMULATION TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT I-80 NORTHWARD SO

HEADLINES FOR AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

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weatherpsycho

weatherpsycho

Posted
Posted

This is the first year where i don't root for IMBY. I'm more of a (Where ever the snowmobile trails are ) guy. I just dropped $13,000 this year on a sled and gear... looking out my window at the snow does no good when the police give you tickets for riding a snowmobile around here. Only state parks are ridable and they kinda suck compared to DNR trails.

...

All the areas in Purple in lower Michigan have NO DNR TRAILS. Means=zero fun for me. I really want to see Van Buren get bombed, very nice 75 mile loop through that county.

Both Allegan and Van Buren should do well with this storm. They are expecting some LES on the back side too.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

If detroit gets less than an inch, I'll write a personal letter to accuweather praising their forecasting

The problem for DTW and ORD is a lot of the QPF you see, especially early, is mostly rain or non-accumulating slop. Any accumulating snows will fall under the mature defo band later in the evening and unfortunately this will be rather narrow. Obviously predicting exactly where this falls is tough but from extreme NE Illinois say Rockford to Waukeegan and than ENE into Michigan is my best guess right now.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

Anybody see this map?

400x266_02231243_snowmap.jpg

Obviously a terrible map

Also the dryslotting is being over done, this thing isn't going to end up as far North as the RUC is showing especially with that piece of energy that is blocking in ON. Furthermore the models don't show mixing here even so I don't know where this sleet talk is coming from, if anything with the intense bands/potential of thunder it would lead me to more confidence in extremely heavy snow vs any sort of mixing.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

Quad Cities nws talking about a possible advisory this evening.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

1026 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012

.UPDATE...

PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN HAS SPREAD NORTHWARD TO

THE I-80 CORRIDOR AT MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY

RISE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS

JUST ENOUGH. HOWEVER JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES

ARE BELOW FREEZING FROM I-80 NORTHWARD AND REMAINS THAT WAY ALL

DAY. WE COULD BE ALTERNATING BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW IN OUR NORTH

DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION.

AS THE SURFACE LOW IN MO ORGANIZES AND MOVES INTO NORTHERN OHIO

LATER TONIGHT A DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY AS SNOW...

DEVELOPS ACROSS THE DVN CWA. ONCE SUNSET ARRIVES THE BOUNDARY

LAYER SHOULD COOL JUST ENOUGH TO TURN EVERYTHING OVER TO ALL SNOW

WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF

ACCUMULATION TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT I-80 NORTHWARD SO

HEADLINES FOR AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

HRW-NMM really has some nice omega back over that way with the mature defo band and spits out silly qpf.

Obv not all snow, but only through 24 hrs and still snowing moderately back by the QCs

hrw-nmm_eus_024_precip_p24.gif

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Chargers09

Chargers09

Posted
Posted

Obviously a terrible map

Also the dryslotting is being over done, this thing isn't going to end up as far North as the RUC is showing especially with that piece of energy that is blocking in ON. Furthermore the models don't show mixing here even so I don't know where this sleet talk is coming from, if anything with the intense bands/potential of thunder it would lead me to more confidence in extremely heavy snow vs any sort of mixing.

This always happens with SEMI posters, though. I can even recall it going back a few years ago. Everything looks good, but then there's a little seed of doubt. One poster says something off base, and the rest jump ship. I think, with SEMI being dryslot capital, it's worth a thought. However, we look pretty good atm. Adrian and Monroe may have to worry about mixing and a dryslot but that's normal around here.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Obviously a terrible map

Also the dryslotting is being over done, this thing isn't going to end up as far North as the RUC is showing especially with that piece of energy that is blocking in ON. Furthermore the models don't show mixing here even so I don't know where this sleet talk is coming from, if anything with the intense bands/potential of thunder it would lead me to more confidence in extremely heavy snow vs any sort of mixing.

Glad to hear this from a red tagger. UKIE + GFS + RUC were starting to concern me.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

Obviously a terrible map

Also the dryslotting is being over done, this thing isn't going to end up as far North as the RUC is showing especially with that piece of energy that is blocking in ON. Furthermore the models don't show mixing here even so I don't know where this sleet talk is coming from, if anything with the intense bands/potential of thunder it would lead me to more confidence in extremely heavy snow vs any sort of mixing.

clearly not a sleet profile but the surface and up a decent ways is warm, areas just outside the heaviest bands (where that ends up is debateable) will certainly be mixing with rain until the end of the event.

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dmc76

dmc76

Posted
Posted

Obviously a terrible map

Also the dryslotting is being over done, this thing isn't going to end up as far North as the RUC is showing especially with that piece of energy that is blocking in ON. Furthermore the models don't show mixing here even so I don't know where this sleet talk is coming from, if anything with the intense bands/potential of thunder it would lead me to more confidence in extremely heavy snow vs any sort of mixing.

I don't agree with it either just had to post it because I think it's comical. It shows around 1" of snow in Northern Oakland NOT A CHANCE. I think they used runs from the GFS last night

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hm8

hm8

Posted
Posted

The problem for DTW and ORD is a lot of the QPF you see, especially early, is mostly rain or non-accumulating slop. Any accumulating snows will fall under the mature defo band later in the evening and unfortunately this will be rather narrow. Obviously predicting exactly where this falls is tough but from extreme NE Illinois say Rockford to Waukeegan and than ENE into Michigan is my best guess right now.

If agree that the heaviest snow will probably fall north and west of detroit. But I don't see how detroit gets less than an inch. Basically I agree with the orientation of the snow in the accumap, but not with amounts, I think it cutoffs to quickly as you go SE in semi

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

clearly not a sleet profile but the surface and up a decent ways is warm, areas just outside the heaviest bands (where that ends up is debateable) will certainly be mixing with rain until the end of the event.

From all the BUFKIT soundings I looked it it was below freezing, sure it isn't much below freezing but it is below freezing. Going to need something above freezing to have mixing issues.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

Glad to hear this from a red tagger. UKIE + GFS + RUC were starting to concern me.

The latest RUC has trended South substantially, although out your way it might still turn the corner, I was more so talking about S MI and the weenie suicides about the GFS which has been wrong and North all along...

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

From all the BUFKIT soundings I looked it it was below freezing, sure it isn't much below freezing but it is below freezing. Going to need something above freezing to have mixing issues.

Just looking at quick text extractions, the GFS has some rain for both of us but it's a razor thin margin.

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