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All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

I don't get the point of bifurcating the discussion about the dryslot and mixing. If it's reasonable and rational, it belongs in this thread.

I can agree that we should probably (myself included) cut out some of the semi-storm related banter.

totally agree, but it's close to becoming nothing but "detroit always gets dryslots LMAO" up in here...with no real discussion.

consider this my last post on the matter, it is what it is.

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weatherpsycho

weatherpsycho

Posted
Posted

now that we are getting close to nowcast time lets all (myself included) try to keep this thread clean. Discuss dryslot, mixing and terrible calls by DTW here

http://www.americanw...d/page__st__455

The DTW poster are discussing the fact that mixing is now looking to be a problem. The post here are commenting the model are now showing DTW with a possible dry slot issue. Dry slot is part of the storm. Get over your hatred of DTW Alek. Just don't read any of the DTW posts. If you want DTW posters to have a complete different discussion forum then please go to the Admins and ask for DTW to have it own region because you hate DTW.

I agree that if some just want to just b#tch about the weather then go to the complaint thread. ere.

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

Sv snow map has 2-4 for chicago metro area....4+ by qc. Central Michigan is 4-8....with spots up to ten......don't know how accurate these maps are.....but I bet a little more realistic then clown maps......

Alek call looks pretty good right now 2-5 for chicago area....gfs hinting at enhancement off the lake tonight also...

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SpartyOn

SpartyOn

Posted
Posted

Not adding fuel to the fire but the dryslot cOncerns are a little over the top. The GFS isn't falling in line with the high res siblings (at least at a fast glance) this is an a typical lakes storm in which the Ohio line usually gets some sleet that sneaks into Detroit for a couple hours. Enjoy the storm guys.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

Sv snow map has 2-4 for chicago metro area....4+ by qc. Central Michigan is 4-8....with spots up to ten......don't know how accurate these maps are.....but I bet a little more realistic then clown maps......

Alek call looks pretty good right now 2-5 for chicago area....gfs hinting at enhancement off the lake tonight also...

Yep, liking that call, ratios are going to be awful, the SV map is probably a great start although any possible convective elements could add an inch or two to that. Again, i think LOT goes, WWA

Not adding fuel to the fire but the dryslot cOncerns are a little over the top. The GFS isn't falling in line with the high res siblings (at least at a fast glance) this is an a typical lakes storm in which the Ohio line usually gets some sleet that sneaks into Detroit for a couple hours. Enjoy the storm guys.

Thanks for the discussion, if someone wants to talk about the dryslot problems, fine but I think the type of whining and chatter i'm talking about is obviously different.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

The DTW poster are discussing the fact that mixing is now looking to be a problem. The post here are commenting the model are now showing DTW with a possible dry slot issue. Dry slot is part of the storm. Get over your hatred of DTW Alek. Just don't read any of the DTW posts. If you want DTW posters to have a complete different discussion forum then please go to the Admins and ask for DTW to have it own region because you hate DTW.

I agree that if some just want to just b#tch about the weather then go to the complaint thread. ere.

I got that vibe initially too but the way Alek qualified his request makes sense to me. The one liners and emoticons, although I don't mind them too much since the traffic in these threads isn't huge, are still annoying to a lot of posters, and probably even more so to lurkers/guests.

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SpartyOn

SpartyOn

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Posted

FWIW SeMi friends. Sometimes it's good to have a healthy dry slot sit about 25-40 miles south of your location. Good convection usually sets up on the northern side of the dry slot. This is where you can get thundersnow and thunder sleet ! Also I've seen the best rates of 2-3 inch per hour in such a spot.

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weatherpsycho

weatherpsycho

Posted
Posted

I got that vibe initially too but the way Alek qualified his request makes sense to me. The one liners and emoticons, although I don't mind them too much since the traffic in these threads isn't huge, are still annoying to a lot of posters, and probably even more so to lurkers/guests.

I totally agree about the one liner crap posts.

His initial post was before those one liner & emoticons posts. If he doesn't like them then use the REPORT button. Or ask to be a Moderator. Prior to his post there were some discussing the dry slot in a civil format no different then other storms that don't even include the DTW posters. It happens every storm where as soon as a DTW posters says something bothers ALEK he points out that thread. As I have observed it does not apply to him. He does show a general hatred of DTW posters (I don't think that is a secret).

NOTE: This is all I have to say about it.

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dmc76

dmc76

Posted
Posted

FWIW SeMi friends. Sometimes it's good to have a healthy dry slot sit about 25-40 miles south of your location. Good convection usually sets up on the northern side of the dry slot. This is where you can get thundersnow and thunder sleet ! Also I've seen the best rates of 2-3 inch per hour in such a spot.

Agree. Hense on why Dry slotting is important to a winter storm. Perfect example New Years storm 08' Lets just hope it does not setup along M-59 as that storm did.

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weatherpsycho

weatherpsycho

Posted
Posted

FWIW SeMi friends. Sometimes it's good to have a healthy dry slot sit about 25-40 miles south of your location. Good convection usually sets up on the northern side of the dry slot. This is where you can get thundersnow and thunder sleet ! Also I've seen the best rates of 2-3 inch per hour in such a spot.

I totally agree. I am really hoping for some good convective cells. Having the HRRR south of us and RUC on us and then north. I am hoping for a good convective set up. I already have given up on a double digit type storm. Seeing some decent lightning and thunder tonight would be a win in my book.

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BeastFromTheEast

BeastFromTheEast

Posted
Posted

FWIW SeMi friends. Sometimes it's good to have a healthy dry slot sit about 25-40 miles south of your location. Good convection usually sets up on the northern side of the dry slot. This is where you can get thundersnow and thunder sleet ! Also I've seen the best rates of 2-3 inch per hour in such a spot.

+1

GHD ftw wrt to that scenario in Chi-Town..

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hawkeye_wx

hawkeye_wx

Posted
Posted

CR airport is still officially 33, but all the wunderground stations here in the city are near 35. It's a shame there isn't colder air available on the front side of this storm because that band along and south of I-80 would be dropping some decent totals. It hasn't started doing anything here, yet, but the band should creep up here this afternoon. It should be rain, unfortunately. Southeast SD is blossoming nicely with snow thanks to mid level energy. Once that energy gets over here and the storm spins up a bit we will switch to snow, but there won't be a tremendous amount of qpf left. We may have a snow ceiling of 4 inches or so, with 2-3 inches being more likely. The delayed timing will also push the snow back to after dark as well, so I won't even get to see some nice daytime snow. Just one of those winters where we just can't get the dynamics, moisture, and thermals to sync up very well.

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SpartyOn

SpartyOn

Posted
Posted

The RUC and HRRR continue to delay onset of snow for this area, now nothing until at least after 3z.

Ha. So much for going to bed early. Tomorrow I and I'm sure many of you guys will be walking zombies. Just be thankfull that this didn't hit on a monday night and that tomorrow is Friday FTW

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

Ha. So much for going to bed early. Tomorrow I and I'm sure many of you guys will be walking zombies. Just be thankfull that this didn't hit on a monday night and that tomorrow is Friday FTW

I can never do, always fall asleep, even fell asleep during GHD at some point. I just hope to make it long enough to see the begining of the defo band, then I'm out.

Good luck over there.

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weatherpsycho

weatherpsycho

Posted
Posted

+1

GHD ftw wrt to that scenario in Chi-Town..

It will be interesting to watch how the convection fires this evening/tonight.

The Dec 2007 storm also had a set up a lot of Thundersnow in northern IN, northwestern OH & extreme southern MI. The models did not do well forecasting the convective portion. Note: Not at all saying this is going to be the Dec 2007 storm.

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dmc76

dmc76

Posted
Posted

Ha. So much for going to bed early. Tomorrow I and I'm sure many of you guys will be walking zombies. Just be thankfull that this didn't hit on a monday night and that tomorrow is Friday FTW

I went to bed right after the NAM run (00Z) last night got 9hrs of sleep in anticipation of an all nighter

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Allsnow

Allsnow

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Posted

CR airport is still officially 33, but all the wunderground stations here in the city are near 35. It's a shame there isn't colder air available on the front side of this storm because that band along and south of I-80 would be dropping some decent totals. It hasn't started doing anything here, yet, but the band should creep up here this afternoon. It should be rain, unfortunately. Southeast SD is blossoming nicely with snow thanks to mid level energy. Once that energy gets over here and the storm spins up a bit we will switch to snow, but there won't be a tremendous amount of qpf left. We may have a snow ceiling of 4 inches or so, with 2-3 inches being more likely. The delayed timing will also push the snow back to after dark as well, so I won't even get to see some nice daytime snow. Just one of those winters where we just can't get the dynamics, moisture, and thermals to sync up very well.

Radar and obs looking real good in se south Dakota.....alot of reports of heavy snow and vis below half mile

http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMDS.html

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fsd/?n=observations

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