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All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Stevo6899

Stevo6899

Posted
Posted

Well the 6z GFS kinda looked like the nam...I think best bet is just to go NOWCASTiNG and that's that..

I think areas just to the NW of detroit, say around flint will sit under the pivot longer and have the best chances of seeing the bigger amounts. Us on the east side will do decent but just think the bands won't sit over us as long as they will to our NW.

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

I think areas just to the NW of detroit, say around flint will sit under the pivot longer and have the best chances of seeing the bigger amounts. Us on the east side will do decent but just think the bands won't sit over us as long as they will to our NW.

Don't forget about the mountains...lmao

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

HRRR with decent thunder threat over Chicago around 1-3z this evening.

EDIT: area also doesn't go over to snow under close to 0z.

Awesome how still by 3z still have +SN west of DSM. The trowal is really amazing given how far back west it extends from the sfc low.

Really curious exactly how the changeover situation plays out, there is going to be some much lift in the fronto band tonight. Great dynamics.

Off work at 11 30am. Cameras charged.

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weatherpsycho

weatherpsycho

Posted
Posted

Newest RPM looks RUCish, shows Detroit with significant mixing issues. Though like the RUC I have seen the RPM flip flop in the past.

Yikes. Too far north then too far south then too weak and then looks great and then getting south again and now too far north. Uggg. At this point I will just hope we can get a decent thundersnow event out of it. Major accumulations don't look likely. My guess is 4-6".

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

Awesome how still by 3z still have +SN west of DSM. The trowal is really amazing given how far back west it extends from the sfc low.

Really curious exactly how the changeover situation plays out, there is going to be some much lift in the fronto band tonight. Great dynamics.

Off work at 11 30am. Cameras charged.

My best guess how this plays out is we see the WAA associated precip push through early evening with mostly rain and possibly some snow mixing down under heavier returns with likely little to no accums...we then go over to light drizzle as teh defo band organizes. Best snows should be 1-4z where 1"+ per hour rates look possible, unfortunately, i don't see that far west defo band pulling through, so the brunt of the acuums will take place in a 4 hour window....which could still drop 4"+ if some of the more extreme solutions verify.

EDIT: 12z GFS will be a weaker, south, drier winter classic run.

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
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now that we are getting close to nowcast time lets all (myself included) try to keep this thread clean. Discuss dryslot, mixing and terrible calls by DTW here

http://www.americanw...d/page__st__455

The storm is not even here yet, why would we go to the complaint thread? This thread clearly states storm 2/23-24...and this particular storm might have dry-slot issues for this particular region..so It should be discussed here..

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

The storm is not even here yet, why would we go to the complaint thread? This thread clearly states storm 2/23-24...and this particular storm might have dry-slot issues for this particular region..so It should be discussed here..

These are complaints and nonsense, and in no way constitute discussion.

LMAO

LLOL..That's for being in the bullseye until the 12zs...

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

now that we are getting close to nowcast time lets all (myself included) try to keep this thread clean. Discuss dryslot, mixing and terrible calls by DTW here

http://www.americanw...d/page__st__455

I don't get the point of bifurcating the discussion about the dryslot and mixing. If it's reasonable and rational, it belongs in this thread.

I can agree that we should probably (myself included) cut out some of the semi-storm related banter.

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