All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

[kab2791]

Skilling's RPM looks beautiful with the defo band tonight and allows it to push up further north compared with the NAM.

[hawkeye_wx]

NWS and all my locals have dropped my area totals to only 1-3 inches. Nobody is buying this system. The nws is citing the weaker Euro and bad thermals as the reasons. I can't blame them. I was also concerned about the timing. We are in the low 30s now, but we will have all day to warm up into the mid to upper 30s before the precip hits. Heck, from Des Moines to just south of me it is already that warm.

[weatherpsycho]

Skilling's RPM looks beautiful with the defo band tonight and allows it to push up further north compared with the NAM.

Now that would be a very nice solution IMBY.

[A-L-E-K]

NWS and all my locals have dropped my area totals to only 1-3 inches. Nobody is buying this system. The nws is citing the weaker Euro and bad thermals as the reasons. I can't blame them. I was also concerned about the timing. We are in the low 30s now, but we will have all day to warm up into the mid to upper 30s before the precip hits. Heck, from Des Moines to just south of me it is already that warm.

given the slower timing, it does look possible that by the time the second low takes over and deepens, the best defo snows will have moved east.

[dmc76]

Just seen the RPM model really looks good for the northern/western suburbs.

[Ajdos]

So what did I miss in these last FEW HOURS since DTX keeps downing our totals.. Seriously..5-11 then 4-7, now 4-6, what's next 2-4?

[gosaints]

NAM seems to be coming back to its senses on precip.

[Stevo6899]

So what did I miss in these last FEW HOURS since DTX keeps downing our totals.. Seriously..5-11 then 4-7, now 4-6, what's next 2-4?

who cares. Lets just enjoy the potential for a good storm.

[snowstormcanuck]

Definite dryslot problems showing up now even on the NAM. That hard left turn the storm takes in E OH is the culprit.

[dmc76]

NAM more realistic

[Ajdos]

who cares. Lets just enjoy the potential for a good storm.

That's exactly what it is lol...

Nam is weaker, waking up...last minute lol

[A-L-E-K]

.75 through Chicago but 20-50% of that is rain or rain/snow mix. WWA for 2-5 area wide should cover it.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20120223/12/nam_namer_027_precip_p24.gif

[weatherpsycho]

As the famous saying goes this is now down to 'nowcasting'. The models are going to waffle around because of convection and strength of vorticities. The convection that is expected/might form in northern IN and northern OH will be the telling story. HRRR goes wild with it (similar to the 6Z NAM idea). The 12Z NAM bypasses northern IN and the fires it up in northern OH. On the RUC that convection has been pretty non-existent. Skilling's RPM actually maybe a pretty good compromise. Interesting storm to say the least.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Lol, if the NAM verified we'd be buried under 10-14".

I had a prelim call of 2-5". I'll bump to 4-6". Finalize after 12z.

Interestingly, the first post in this thread alluded to a storm in late February 1965 which gave Toronto around 14" of snow. Imagine if the NAM actually verified and the analog fit perfectly?

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=5097&dlyRange=1937-11-01|2012-02-21&Year=1965&Month=2&Day=01

[dmc76]

Definite dryslot problems showing up now even on the NAM. That hard left turn the storm takes in E OH is the culprit.

Looks like its a nail biter for that dry slot for u.

[snowstormcanuck]

Interestingly, the first post in this thread alluded to a storm in late February 1965 which gave Toronto around 14" of snow. Imagine if the NAM actually verified and the analog fit perfectly?

Too bad the NAM came back to reality.

I think I've seen enough to make a final call for Toronto. 4-6" (10-15cm) looks good.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Too bad the NAM came back to reality.

I think I've seen enough to make a final call for Toronto. 4-6" (10-15cm) looks good.

I'll take it after what we've experienced this winter.

[SpartyOn]

It's a very safe call of 4-8 inches for most of SeMi. Enjoy it as we know what might be lurking in a couple of weeks. Lol this will be the first time all year I will get to use my snow blower. Considering just coating the side walk and drive with massive amounts of salt. I hate firing up the snowblower. Temps might actually help this from not sticking too much which would also aid in saving my Friday morning commute.

[Baum]

Final call, 5.5 IYBY

foregoing the conservative approach,i see. Just hope for business sake switchover occurrs after 9pm. Hate to be scrammbling equipment out at the height of rush hour with irate customers.

[A-L-E-K]

foregoing the conservative approach,i see. Just hope for business sake switchover occurrs after 9pm. Hate to be scrammbling equipment out at the height of rush hour with irate customers.

Relatively speaking, I like my location on the north side, although dryslot concerns are increasing. It's probably too bullish but whatever, 2-5 area wide sounds fair and I think LOT will go with something similar. The best does look after 9 so you should be good there.

[snowstormcanuck]

I'll take it after what we've experienced this winter.

One thing that concerns me is if the band of f-gen driven snow is really narrow. Since the mid-level low is so close to us, it might shoot north pretty quickly, creating maybe 2-3 hours of intense snow and then slot. Unless it's ripping like crazy, 4" might be tough in that scenario. Of course, that's counterbalanced by the best case scenario of the low ending up less wound up and we get into a protracted stay in the deformation zone. Then maybe 8 or 9" is possible.

All in all, you play this storm out 100 times, I think 95 of them will end up in the 4-6" range. Good odds.

[turtlehurricane]

The models still look decent for Madison, maybe 2-3" and we don't have to worry about warm air as much. This will come down to nowcasting though so we will see, models have been varying too much to take them at face value.

[A-L-E-K]

RUC trends are interesting to say the least, slower and slower, dry slot to WI border and heaviest snows way west.

[snowstormcanuck]

RUC trends are interesting to say the least, slower and slower, dry slot to WI border and heaviest snows way west.

Isn't that its bias though? I can remember many an east coast storm that the RUC tried to slam me with.

Dryslot is a legit concern for me, maybe Detroit. Chicago, I don't see it unless the whole storm shifts way north. Per 12z sfc analysis, everything looks in its place.

[Baum]

Relatively speaking, I like my location on the north side, although dryslot concerns are increasing. It's probably too bullish but whatever, 2-5 area wide sounds fair and I think LOT will go with something similar. The best does look after 9 so you should be good there.

appreciated. Need 25 inches at ORD to insure I don't have to issue credits back to the monthlies. 5 inches measured with 2 inches on the pavement is a gift. 6 inches of 7:1 ratio on pavement is not. Congrats to the lower Michiana folks looks like they could make up for lost time with this one.

[A-L-E-K]

Isn't that its bias though? I can remember many an east coast storm that the RUC tried to slam me with.

Dryslot is a legit concern for me, maybe Detroit. Chicago, I don't see it unless the whole storm shifts way north. Per 12z sfc analysis, everything looks in its place.

I don't pay attention to it enough to know if that is a bias but will gladly take your word.

LOT did mention possible dryslot issues here though, so it isn't too far fetched.

[snowstormcanuck]

I don't pay attention to it enough to know if that is a bias but will gladly take your word.

LOT did mention possible dryslot issues here though, so it isn't too far fetched.

I'm pretty certain that was bias of its, at least a couple of years ago. I know it's constantly undergoing upgrades though, so I'm not sure if it's still true.

[kab2791]

RUC has 986mb low in NW IN...not going to happen.

[Jonger]

Just hope someone sees 8+ in Michigan... Or else who gives a crap. I don't like seeing the NAM lose all that precip.

[snowstormcanuck]

Just hope someone sees 8+ in Michigan... Or else who gives a crap. I don't like seeing the NAM lose all that precip.

It was nice fap material, but I never really thought what the NAM was dishing out was in the cards. All the other models were way drier, even the hi-res ones.