All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

[DAFF]

Trajectory is the key to this one. I like how there is such a spread within models and forecasts. Time will tell... I'm hoping a southern solution, keeping the snow dryer.

[michsnowfreak]

Trajectory is the key to this one. I like how there is such a spread within models and forecasts. Time will tell... I'm hoping a southern solution, keeping the snow dryer.

I dont think we have a prayer for dry snow with this one....but I too am hoping for a southern solution, as right now Im sitting good but on the southern edge of good. And as has been the case all winter, this will not be a widespread band of heavy snow, rather a narrow one (but not quite as narrow as many of the other systems this winter where it was razor thin band of snow on the NW side).

[dmc76]

Im going with a blend of the NAM and GFS... 2-4" from Wayne CTY South, 4-6" around the 94 Corridor to 696, 6-8" 696 north to 59 and 7-10" from 59 north to 69.

[DAFF]

I'd take a foot of fluffy snow over 5" of cement snow any day. 8:1 snow ratios perhaps with this one which will knock the totals down. So which model at the time is calling the outcome the best.

[michsnowfreak]

Im going with a blend of the NAM and GFS... 2-4" from Wayne CTY South, 4-6" around the 94 Corridor to 696, 6-8" 696 north to 59 and 7-10" from 59 north to 69.

lol that sounds more like the GFS, not a blend of the two. Actually very latest snow maps (6z) have Wayne cty at 6-8" per GFS and 10", a little more in spots, per NAM. You could 100% be right, just saying it doesnt look like a blend to me really.

[michsnowfreak]

I'd take a foot of fluffy snow over 5" of cement snow any day. 8:1 snow ratios perhaps with this one which will knock the totals down. So which model at the time is calling the outcome the best.

I would too, in a heartbeat. But naturally Id take cement snow over rain lol. I dont see this one as having a chance of being anything other than cement snow (maybe 10-1 ratio at best, probably not that good). Irony, our two most plowable snowfalls (Jan 21 and Feb 10) in this warm winter were powder rather than wet cement. Another "go figure" lol

[DAFF]

My gut is .8" liquid total, 1/4 rain to start, 1/4 sleet and a 1/2 snow finish. Giving us a 5", 10cm cannon ball snow. This is a term for plowing wet wet snow. It actually comes off the edge of the blade like snowman balls rather than a line of stacked snow. Yuck..... Many machines will break and the ER's will be packed.

[weatherpsycho]

My excitement for this storm is mediocre at best right now. NAM is a dream right now but it is the NAM. The other models are good but still there is a lot of ??? The 10Z RUC was pretty ugly IMO

Hopefully the 12Z

[DAFF]

A little off topic, but I think we might surpass some season snow totals. Parade of storms on gfs

[dmc76]

My excitement for this storm is mediocre at best right now. NAM is a dream right now but it is the NAM. The other models are good but still there is a lot of ??? The 10Z RUC was pretty ugly IMO

Hopefully the 12Z

North of 59 Jackpot for this one... RUC seems really north to the point of giving areas south of 94 1-3"

[Snowstorms]

Lol, if the NAM verified we'd be buried under 10-14".

I had a prelim call of 2-5". I'll bump to 4-6". Finalize after 12z.

My prelim. call is a solid 4" but in terms of ranges I'm calling for 4-7".

6z Nam was beautiful

[dmc76]

WJBK going with 2 - 4"

[Thundersnow12]

24hr RUC putting out 8-10" just sw of RFD.

[weatherpsycho]

North of 59 Jackpot for this one... RUC seems really north to the point of giving areas south of 94 1-3"

My hesitation is the fact that the RUC is showing what normally seems to happened. The Jackpot going west where IL/WI will once again laugh in our faces.

[SpartyOn]

DTX sounds less than thrilled. Talked about trimming or not upgrading half of the counties to WSWarn. Any slight jogs south or if the guidance is overdoing the thermal aspects this might change.

[cyclone77]

Hahaha. DVN has no advisories for the entire CWA.

[SpartyOn]

I'm wondering if DTX looked and put allot of faith in some of the warmer and north 0z members and runs.

[A-L-E-K]

24hr RUC putting out 8-10" just sw of RFD.

Final call, 5.5 IYBY

[weatherpsycho]

DTX sounds less than thrilled. Talked about trimming or not upgrading half of the counties to WSWarn. Any slight jogs south or if the guidance is overdoing the thermal aspects this might change.

Yeah there latest AVN update talks about mixing all the way up to DTX now. Not just near the Ohio border. Going to be interesting to see what happens with convection.

[A-L-E-K]

Hahaha. DVN has no advisories for the entire CWA.

Concerning, great office that often makes good calls

[cyclone77]

The same news station that was forecasting 6-8" last night for the QC now shows 1-3". People around here have to be very confused.

[cyclone77]

Concerning, great office that often makes good calls

HRRR keeps us all rain pretty much all day, with heavy wet snow at the tail end. Still riding my call from last night. 3" here, 2-3" for the QC.

[A-L-E-K]

HRRR keeps us all rain pretty much all day, with heavy wet snow at the tail end. Still riding my call from last night. 3" here, 2-3" for the QC.

Going to be close to mostly rain here as well

[SpartyOn]

Yeah there latest AVN update talks about mixing all the way up to DTX now. Not just near the Ohio border. Going to be interesting to see what happens with convection.

Heartbreak city if that verifies. The AFD hinted that up to Flint could sleet out. Brutal. Oh well I guess.

[Chicago WX]

FWIW, and it's probably not much, but the models have been busting warm here in Indiana with the last couple of events. The 2/13-14 snow here in LAF was supposed to be primarily rain with temps in the low 40's, as indicated by the NAM, RGEM, Euro. Didn't happen obviously, and that was with a weaker system. Also the last couple of minor snowfalls for northern Indiana weren't modeled very well. Granted every storm is different, but food for thought I guess. Seems the dynamic potential with this storm could lead to some good surprises. I wish everyone good luck.

[Jonger]

WJBK going with 2 - 4"

Not that it matters, but what did they call for North and West of the city?

[cyclone77]

Seems like this system is a little slower with each run. HRRR/RUC/RPM keep precip hanging back for quite a bit longer than what they were showing last night.

[dmc76]

Not that it matters, but what did they call for North and West of the city?

There was no map. It was just broken down in there written part of the forecast.

RUC lol. Ah oh another miss?

[A-L-E-K]

Seems like this system is a little slower with each run. HRRR/RUC/RPM keep precip hanging back for quite a bit longer than what they were showing last night.

This has definitely been the trend, I'll be sound asleep when this thing is going on.

[A-L-E-K]