All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

[Justin]

Impressive dynamics lining up and the heavy snow band looks like Ames-Clinton-Aurora 30mi. either side thru my area. I think we'll see some amounts in the 5-9" range through that band. DVN probably looks good for 5-7" while MLI probably more in the 4-6" range, unfortunately because of compaction/melting snow depth probably only will be half of what actually falls. Reminds me very much of a mid-late March type snowfall. I'm concerned with some of the signals on the models someone will get a great more snowfall if that thundersnow materializes. Instability and intense rates for a period of time look good right down I80.

[Stebo]

Euro initialized the low too far NE and a couple mb too weak. Also has it too far NE compared to it's current location, just something to take note of.

[wisconsinwx]

Flurries at best here, while N Illinois gets 8-12". Enjoy!

[Thundersnow12]

I'm going to go with 5-8" for here.

Have the over (ofcourse) with Caplan. 5.8" at ORD.

[SchaumburgStormer]

I am going bullish on this storm, making the call that my area (dekalb) sits at 7"

[Thundersnow12]

[andyhb]

That would be a hell of a WV image in all likelihood.

[ORH_wxman]

Good discussion guys...I've been following a bit out there because this will have big impacts on SNE too....Euro came in paltry here too...but it seems it might be wrong out there. The NCEP guidance gave SNE a pretty big thump of snow.

[Thundersnow12]

Very impressive loop of reflectivity from the 4km WRF-NMM. Very intense banding over Iowa during the day tomorrow.

http://www.emc.ncep....yle/spcprod/00/

gosh is that beautiful.

[Chicago Storm]

I'm going to go with 5-8" for here.

Have the over (ofcourse) with Caplan. 5.8" at ORD.

i probably would take the under.

[Stebo]

My guess right now for most of Detroit Metro area is would be a solid 6-9" unless you are at the border or well North of I-69. If thundersnow is realized there is a shot someone ends up >10" maybe even 11". This 6-9" band would also be my call for the Southern 3 tiers in GRR and into Southwestern Ontario up toward London.

[ORH_wxman]

My guess right now for most of Detroit Metro area is would be a solid 6-9" unless you are at the border or well North of I-69. If thundersnow is realized there is a shot someone ends up >10" maybe even 11". This 6-9" band would also be my call for the Southern 3 tiers in GRR and into Southwestern Ontario up toward London.

So you think the Euro might be bunk?

[Thundersnow12]

i probably would take the under.

He set it I picked it, it was a tough decision but given possible banding/TSSN, etc..I had to go over.

[Stebo]

So you think the Euro might be bunk?

It is already too weak and the other models are clustered pretty well both in strength/QPF.

[ORH_wxman]

It is already too weak and the other models are clustered pretty well both in strength/QPF.

That is good to know...which is why I'm watching this thread carefully....the NCEP models gave SNE a pretty solid thump of snow (often DTW and BOS/ORH can get similar weather in these types of systems). The Euro was weaker with this front loaded dynamics....which I assume is what gives DTW their snow at a quick glance on the models.

[kab2791]

Latest 2 runs of RUC coming NW, but could be the RUC being the RUC.

[Geos]

RUC favoring an intense band just north of Chicago. That would really impressive around here!

[Thundersnow12]

Latest 2 runs of RUC coming NW, but could be the RUC being the RUC.

southern edge of precip gets to almost I-88 around 0z but then it looks like it wants to fire new convection in the dry slot and heights fall and a pivot point develops.

[Ajdos]

6zNam :$is Wetter for S/E Mi.

[Thundersnow12]

3z SREF went south. The 6z NAM also shifted the heaviest axis a tad south.

[Ajdos]

WOW at the nam...Seriously if that verifies a foot of snow looks likely..and colder..

[Ajdos]

DTX..Over Night shift, the shift that does not like snow I think.. but anyways the cut down on the accums. for my areas..and added a slight chance of rain for Macomb CO.

Thursday Night...Snow. Accumulations 4 to 7 inches. Lows 29 to 33. Light east winds...becoming light northwest after midnight. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Friday...Cloudy. Snow likely in the morning...then a chance of light snow in the afternoon. Accumulations 1 to 2 inches. Storm total snow accumulation 5 to 7 inches. Highs 34 to 38. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

[Northern_IN_Wx]

this one is just gonna miss me. I might have to go on up to SBN tonight...or southwest lower depending on track adjustments.

[QVectorman]

I'm not putting much stock in this thing going over 8". It's coming out of Wyoming...Barely a gulf connection at 850mb, every other level it has a horrible moisture field. Have to stick with history and say storms coming from Colorado/Wyoming rarely put down more than 8 inches max...always a few isolated areas of 10". I like the NAM swath with a max band running WSW to ENE around Hillsdale/Jackson co. around the higher end of 4-8 with a few isolated spots of up to 10" between JXN, Battle Creek and Lansing and then Dtw at the bottom end of the 4-8

[snowstormcanuck]

Wow, I would trade any snow I'd see the rest of the way to have the 6z NAM verify. Unfortunately, I'm thinking it's up to its old tricks again, and one should probably slash its QPF by about 40%. RGEM actually looks like a nice compromise between the NAM and the dry EURO.

[snowstormcanuck]

Usually you can find some amped up SREF members, but not a single one is in the same league as the NAM.

[toronto blizzard]

My call for YYZ: 4-8"

If NAM verified that would be a solid 6-9''

[snowstormcanuck]

My call for YYZ: 4-8"

If NAM verified that would be a solid 6-9''

Lol, if the NAM verified we'd be buried under 10-14".

I had a prelim call of 2-5". I'll bump to 4-6". Finalize after 12z.

[A-L-E-K]

6z models and RUC guidance looking pretty sweet, most have best QPF a hair south of me, but this has potential to make a last minute hair jog north with the dry slot push. Either way, timing looks perfect and hoping for a period of intense rates. Final IMBY call.....4.5"

EDIT: timing also appears to be slowing down more as well. Might help tap the gulf more late period

[toronto blizzard]

Lol, if the NAM verified we'd be buried under 10-14".

I had a prelim call of 2-5". I'll bump to 4-6". Finalize after 12z.

Still have to watch for that ugly dy slot. Thankfully NAM,RGEM, and Euro have it staying south of us.