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All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

986 over s-c PA at 96. That's actually a bit further south than I expected. I can't see between 72 and 96 but it appears the storm moves ENE. Can't see QPF either but H7 RH looks fairly juicy (and decent spatial coverage).

YYZ is pretty much the only part of our region that picks up any decent QPF that has wintery potential...

 
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   1.6    -1.3    1001	  81	  85    0.01	 541	 541   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.8	 1.7	 996	  90	  98    0.07	 539	 542   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   1.3    -0.6	 990	  96	  97    0.07	 533	 541   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB   0.0    -6.4	 987	  88	  95    0.24	 521	 531   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -0.2    -8.2	 990	  82	  85    0.08	 514	 522   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   0.4    -9.7	 996	  62	  97    0.04	 516	 519   
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -3.2   -13.1    1006	  69	  90    0.01	 521	 517   
SUN 06Z 26-FEB  -4.6   -14.3    1013	  68	  69    0.01	 527	 517

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

YYZ is pretty much the only part of our region that picks up any decent QPF that has wintery potential...

FRI 12Z 24-FEB   1.6	-1.3	1001	  81	  85	0.01	 541	 541  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.8	 1.7	 996	  90	  98	0.07	 539	 542  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   1.3	-0.6	 990	  96	  97	0.07	 533	 541  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB   0.0	-6.4	 987	  88	  95	0.24	 521	 531  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -0.2	-8.2	 990	  82	  85	0.08	 514	 522  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   0.4	-9.7	 996	  62	  97	0.04	 516	 519  
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -3.2   -13.1	1006	  69	  90	0.01	 521	 517  
SUN 06Z 26-FEB  -4.6   -14.3	1013	  68	  69	0.01	 527	 517

Thanks for this. Looks like about 0.43" melted. That's about half of what the 12z EURO spat out, but considering the shift east, I shouldn't be surprised. Not quite an ideal snowstorm track fot YYZ.

But if I could lock it in...there'd be no doubt.

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

986 over s-c PA at 96. That's actually a bit further south than I expected. I can't see between 72 and 96 but it appears the storm moves ENE. Can't see QPF either but H7 RH looks fairly juicy (and decent spatial coverage).

Pretty decent hit for your neck of the woods ( .50+ ) into W.NY on up towards Montreal etc.

One thing we have not had this winter is a nw trend and thus those out this way may as well forget about it.

Besides that lil skip east of the apps to W.MA this thing basically moves ne along the Canadian/US border from near the NH/VT/Canada line to just nw of the far nw ME/Canada line. This run of the euro gets it down to 964mb.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Pretty decent hit for your neck of the woods ( .50+ ) into W.NY on up towards Montreal etc.

One thing we have not had this winter is a nw trend and thus those out this way may as well forget about it.

Besides that lil skip east of the apps to W.MA this thing basically moves ne along the Canadian/US border from near the NH/VT/Canada line to just nw of the far nw ME/Canada line. This run of the euro gets it down to 964mb.

Pretty stark contrast between the EURO (bomb) and the GFS/GGEM (progressive) within 96 hours.

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

ECMWF at 72 hrs still looks like it is going to go ballistic across the far NE US. Granted...I am not a sure what we are looking at here for the Lakes.

Maybe i'll be wrong but i don't think we are looking at much for this part of the lakes on west. Different story for our Canadian friends further east near/in Toronto/se Canada.. Could kick up the LES a bit though i suppose. On this run of the euro most of the snow is in W.NY/Toronto area on up into se Canada/Montreal etc. Clips far northern VT/NH with some backside action.

Part of the problem as well for a further nw track is tomorrows system which looks to sorta act like a blocker. Plus as SSC pointed out there is another decent system approaching the NW.

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

Unsure of how much is snow but the map is showing between .25 and .50 for everyone south of a Muskegon to Bay City line...25+ for Chicago/ne IL ( IL/WI line south ) on into IN..

I'm pretty sure everything is snow with this run...Temps stay below 0c. throughout the event.

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kab2791

kab2791

Posted
Posted

Unsure of how much is snow but the map is showing between .25 and .50 for everyone south of a Muskegon to Bay City line...25+ for Chicago/ne IL ( IL/WI line south ) on into IN..

DET: only 0.10 looks to be snow

BTL: around 0.17

YYZ: around 0.36

I'm not sure what hours you are looking at, but those numbers seem off, or at least not accounting for marginal temps to begin with.

Though ORD is close to 0.20.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

Unsure of how much is snow but the map is showing between .25 and .50 for everyone south of a Muskegon to Bay City line...25+ for Chicago/ne IL ( IL/WI line south ) on into IN..

a good portion of it is rain with marginal temps aloft and BL temp issues...

DTW for example...

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.7    -0.8    1002	  84	  98    0.01	 542	 540   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   2.7	 0.7    1000	  94	  91    0.03	 542	 542   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   2.5	 1.9	 998	  96	  89    0.03	 540	 542   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.0    -0.4	 996	  92	  96    0.09	 535	 538   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.7    -5.3	 997	  87	  98    0.06	 526	 529   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB   0.1    -7.5	 999	  84	  88    0.04	 520	 520   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -2.0    -9.5    1003	  76	  79    0.00	 518	 516   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   2.0    -9.2    1008	  42	  93    0.02	 522	 516   
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -0.9   -11.1    1016	  45	  57    0.01	 528	 515

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

DET: only 0.10 looks to be snow

BTL: around 0.17

YYZ: around 0.36

I'm not sure what hours you are looking at, but those numbers seem off, or at least not accounting for marginal temps to begin with.

Though ORD is close to 0.20.

HMMMM....I think temps stay below 0 throughout the whole event for us?

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

a good portion of it is rain with marginal temps aloft and BL temp issues...

DTW for example...

FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.7	-0.8	1002	  84	  98	0.01	 542	 540  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   2.7	 0.7	1000	  94	  91	0.03	 542	 542  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   2.5	 1.9	 998	  96	  89	0.03	 540	 542  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.0	-0.4	 996	  92	  96	0.09	 535	 538  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.7	-5.3	 997	  87	  98	0.06	 526	 529  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB   0.1	-7.5	 999	  84	  88	0.04	 520	 520  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -2.0	-9.5	1003	  76	  79	0.00	 518	 516  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   2.0	-9.2	1008	  42	  93	0.02	 522	 516  
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -0.9   -11.1	1016	  45	  57	0.01	 528	 515

Well this does not make any sense....The low is not even close to us...pretty far south for temps to go this high up..how? IDK but GN..

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

DET: only 0.10 looks to be snow

BTL: around 0.17

YYZ: around 0.36

I'm not sure what hours you are looking at, but those numbers seem off, or at least not accounting for marginal temps to begin with.

Though ORD is close to 0.20.

Thanks. I'll drop in a report. Some of that would be LES i suppose as the hours are for 72hrs out to 120hrs.

a good portion of it is rain with marginal temps aloft and BL temp issues...

DTW for example...

FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.7	-0.8	1002	  84	  98	0.01	 542	 540  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   2.7	 0.7	1000	  94	  91	0.03	 542	 542  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   2.5	 1.9	 998	  96	  89	0.03	 540	 542  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.0	-0.4	 996	  92	  96	0.09	 535	 538  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.7	-5.3	 997	  87	  98	0.06	 526	 529  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB   0.1	-7.5	 999	  84	  88	0.04	 520	 520  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -2.0	-9.5	1003	  76	  79	0.00	 518	 516  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   2.0	-9.2	1008	  42	  93	0.02	 522	 516  
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -0.9   -11.1	1016	  45	  57	0.01	 528	 515

Thanks. I had a feeling that would be the case. The colder air really shouldn't arrive till this thing starts to bomb and by then alot of the precip should be pulling out. Euro 2mTemps has us all above 32 till Friday evening/night. Thus whatever falls as snow looks to be a wet snow. Till the lake stuff kicks in anyways.

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

Well this does not make any sense....The low is not even close to us...pretty far south for temps to go this high up..how? IDK but GN..

We have had this issue for a while now with pesky warmth below 850mb. Why i am still not overly excited about tomorrow morning.

The best way for us to get more/all snow would be for this thing to bomb quicker and further west/sw. That would help pull in the colder air a bit quicker. Unfortunately as mentioned earlier that has not been the trend this winter. Maybe this could be different but with the way this winter has gone i wouldn't count on it. lol

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

We have had this issue for a while now with pesky warmth below 850mb. Why i am still not overly excited about tomorrow morning.

The best way for us to get more/all snow would be for this thing to bomb quicker and further west/sw. That would help pull in the colder air a bit quicker. Unfortunately as mentioned earlier that has not been the trend this winter. Maybe this could be different but with the way this winter has gone i wouldn't count on it. lol

The 12z EURO was colder in southern MI. Had snow starting up around 96 hours.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

This is my blog post from this evening, but will post it here as well...I tried to use general public friendly terminology when possible.

post-525-0-54630900-1329785979.png

A very dynamic weather pattern is developing off the west coast of N. American, with a ridge off the coast causing a very active polar (blue) jet stream to ride over the ridge and dive southeast into the Rockies. As one can see above, there are multiple mid to upper level storms embedded within the polar jet stream, and these will move into the US over the coming days. Farther south, a feed of moisture extends from the tropics into Mexico and the Gulf Coast States.

As the ridging off the west coast continues to build in the coming days, storms will gradually move farther south, and may eventually tap the moisture feed and produce widespread areas of heavier precipitation.

post-525-0-67485200-1329786024.gif

As we look ahead to Thursday, it is evident that ridging off the west coast of the US extends north into Alaska, with energy dropping into the Rockies and trying to spread east. In addition, a moist piece of subtropical jet stream energy, seen on the above image by the blue shades over south Texas and northern Mexico, is advancing to the east-northeast, and is coming dangerously close to interacting with the trough developing over the Plain states. In the arctic, some weak ridging has developed over extreme northwestern Canada, indicating a neutral AO, however an upper level low is expected to remain in place over Greenland, keeping the NAO positive. This supports southeast ridging, and will make it hard for the pattern to slow down and amplify.

As for what happens next, we have many solutions being shown…the 12z European model (ECMWF) and to some extent its ensembles show a clean phase between the moist subtropical energy and the polar jet energy diving in from the northwest Thursday into Friday, resulting in a deep low pressure developing over the Ohio Valley and riding into the eastern Great Lakes by Friday morning:

post-525-0-41409300-1329786065.gif

The Euro continues to bring a deep storm into eastern Canada, and actually shows what would be close to a blizzard over a good portion of southeastern Canada Friday into Saturday:

post-525-0-55991000-1329786090.gif

Today’s run of the ECMWF is actually much deeper and farther west with this potential Thursday-Saturday storm than yesterday’s run, which I declared to be unlikely in my blog post last night.

The GFS and its ensembles continue to play a game of cat and mouse…yesterday afternoon’s (12z) run of the GFS and its ensembles almost unanimously disagreed with the amped up ECM solution for this storm…then the 0z run came around, and the GFS ensembles had several members jump to the amplified European model solution:

post-525-0-58876600-1329786134.gif

Several members showed a very wound up low tracking through the eastern Great Lakes or New England/Southeast Canada with an area of accumulating snows and high winds to the west of the low track.

post-525-0-28806300-1329786163.gif

Then, this afternoon’s 12z runs of the GFS ensembles had several members, at least half, develop a very strong area of low pressure with heavy snow and wind somewhere between the eastern Great Lakes and the Northeastern Seaboard.

post-525-0-41256500-1329786201.gif

This evening’s 18z run of the GFS ensembles, shown above, backed off the deep low cutting well west of the east coast idea some, but several members still have the deep storm tracking well west of the east coast.

So, what exactly determines if we see a deep storm develop Thursday into Friday and where it tracks?

Essentially, it has to do with if the trough developing over the central US can phase with the piece of moist subtropical jet-stream energy moving across the Deep South before the energy slides off the east coast.

post-525-0-73378000-1329786235.gif

The 12z Euro (which showed a deep storm bombing over the eastern Lakes) when compared to the 18z GFS (which did not show a deep storm bombing over the eastern lakes) valid at 12z Thursday, about one day before any deep storm would really bomb out, shows differences already. The GFS is a bit flatter with the polar jet across the US and is a bit faster with the polar jet energy. In addition, the Euro is bringing the cutoff energy east a bit faster than the GFS.

post-525-0-05154800-1329786260.gif

When rolled forward 24 hours, the Euro shows a well timed phase between a polar branch shortwave that digs down into the deep south and a piece of cutoff energy that moves east at just the right time, while the GFS is more zonal with the polar branch of the jet stream and is now showing the subtropical jet shortwave too far southeast to fully phase west of the Apps, resulting in a much weaker storm system.

The question becomes, which solution is more likely, phased or unphased? The trend this season has certainly been for the unphased solution to win out more times than not, and given the lack of true blocking in the current pattern, a well timed phase would need to occur for the more amped up solution to play out. Given this, I will continue to slightly favor the more weak/fast solution to play out, however model trends over the past 24 hours have been strong and the Euro has led the way thus far, so chances for a snowstorm from the eastern Lakes east in Upstate NY, New England, southern Ontario and southern/eastern Quebec have increased for Thursday night into Friday and Saturday.

What to watch in relation to this storm threat:

1. Does the subtropical jet energy trend weaker or stronger? A weaker piece of energy may mean a weaker storm.

2. Does the subtropical jet energy trend faster or slower? A slower solution might get left behind by the polar branch shortwave, while a faster one may mean phasing does not occur until the system is off the east coast.

3. Does the polar jet trend more zonal? This makes a phased solution less likely. A more amplified polar jet would make the amped up solution more likely.

I just saw this post...very nice analysis.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

a good portion of it is rain with marginal temps aloft and BL temp issues...

DTW for example...

FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.7	-0.8	1002	  84	  98	0.01	 542	 540  
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   2.7	 0.7	1000	  94	  91	0.03	 542	 542  
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   2.5	 1.9	 998	  96	  89	0.03	 540	 542  
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.0	-0.4	 996	  92	  96	0.09	 535	 538  
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.7	-5.3	 997	  87	  98	0.06	 526	 529  
SAT 06Z 25-FEB   0.1	-7.5	 999	  84	  88	0.04	 520	 520  
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -2.0	-9.5	1003	  76	  79	0.00	 518	 516  
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   2.0	-9.2	1008	  42	  93	0.02	 522	 516  
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -0.9   -11.1	1016	  45	  57	0.01	 528	 515

I'd argue that the surface temps are probably too high from 00z Sat and beyond but we are nit picking at this point.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Call me stupid i have no idea what were following here. All i see is a period of cold rain changing to some flurries.

Edit: i see i nice event for Subury ont to Alma Que.

None of the NCEP models have this storm. At 6z, the GFS, NAM, GEFS, and SREFS (including every member from those two groups of ensembles) are completely devoid of anything resembling the 12z/20 or 0z EURO.

Gotta like the EURO, especially with a couple of consistent runs under its belt, and some UKIE backup, but given the trend this winter, it's hard not to be a little concerned that the NCEP models might have the right idea. It's like Ji says, the EURO's only wrong when it shows snow.

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dmc76

dmc76

Posted
Posted

None of the NCEP models have this storm. At 6z, the GFS, NAM, GEFS, and SREFS (including every member from those two groups of ensembles) are completely devoid of anything resembling the 12z/20 or 0z EURO.

Gotta like the EURO, especially with a couple of consistent runs under its belt, and some UKIE backup, but given the trend this winter, it's hard not to be a little concerned that the NCEP models might have the right idea. It's like Ji says, the EURO's only wrong when it shows snow.

Your in a decent spot for some snow. Im not sure the further west you go.

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SpartyOn

SpartyOn

Posted
Posted

EURO esemble mean has a similar track to the OP, but not nearly as deep:

00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS096.gif

Interestingly, HPC model discussion completely discounts a EURO/UKIE type solution. Would be quite the fail for arguably the most reputable model in the near medium range.

God does that look ballistic. Does YYZ finnally get nailed? Long over due.

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