All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

Hoosier · February 23, 2012

The dynamics with this thing is extremely impressive.

Yep. I don't know if anything can match the Super Bowl thunderfest of a few years ago but these are some of the best thundersnow signals at least since GHD.

DAFF · February 23, 2012

TWC EC and TWN are looking at the same maps...... How does dBZ relate to snow fall?? Is it intensity??

andyhb · February 23, 2012

TWC EC and TWN are looking at the same maps...... How does dBZ relate to snow fall?? Is it intensity??

Generally, the more dBZ, the more precipitation, be it snow, hail, rain or even other things like debris within a tornado.

DAFF · February 23, 2012

Perhaps the next Sunday's system will drop south too. Going to be very hard to get any sleep the next day or so. Like a kid the night before Chrismas.

cyclone77 · February 23, 2012

Very impressive loop of reflectivity from the 4km WRF-NMM. Very intense banding over Iowa during the day tomorrow.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/

Geos · February 23, 2012

Very impressive loop of reflectivity from the 4km WRF-NMM. Very intense banding over Iowa during the day tomorrow.

http://www.emc.ncep....yle/spcprod/00/

:thumbsup:

TugHillMatt · February 23, 2012

I just want this storm to move a BIT farther north. I seriously can not take ANOTHER storm that misses me just to the south. For the past three years, they have been hitting southeast Michigan!!!!!

Ajdos · February 23, 2012

Is the Euro like way south or is this just me? LOL

Chicago Storm · February 23, 2012

ecmwf came in a bit south, a bit weaker and drier.

Ajdos · February 23, 2012

ecmwf came in a bit south, a bit weaker and drier.

Low at hour 24 is in S/Indiana-To around Buffalo at 48..basically N/E

kab2791 · February 23, 2012

Euro looks meh for a lot after seeing the NAM/GFS.

MOP: 0.19

BTL: 0.40

DET: 0.26

MKE: 0.24

ORD: 0.46

DVN: 0.47

YYZ: 0.35

Ajdos · February 23, 2012

Euro looks meh for a lot after seeing the NAM/GFS.

MOP: 0.19

BTL: 0.40

DET: 0.26

MKE: 0.24

ORD: 0.46

DVN: 0.47

YYZ: 0.35

LOL that's horrible...

hm8 · February 23, 2012

What did the Ukie do tonight? IIRC it's been inline with the euro so far

BowMeHunter · February 23, 2012

Closing the door to this one up here.. gl to the rest and I wouldn't worry much about the euro or its qpf.

cyclone77 · February 23, 2012

Euro's qpf seems fairly paltry given strong dynamics.

cyclone77 · February 23, 2012

Closing the door to this one up here.. gl to the rest and I wouldn't worry much about the euro or its qpf.

LMFAO!!!!

Hoosier · February 23, 2012

SPC outlook has thunder into the south side of Chicago and southern MI

Hoosier · February 23, 2012

Euro's qpf seems fairly paltry given strong dynamics.

I doubt it would be able to resolve the intense banding in a situation like this.

Thunder Road · February 23, 2012

Remember the Euro low-balled the 1/20 event almost to the last minute. I think it had 0.12" imby where we got over 6". Focus more on track/temperatures/dynamics than actual qpf output.

Chicago Storm · February 23, 2012

0z ECMWF:

MSN:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   1.0    -5.2    1002	  72	  84    0.01	 532	 531   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB  -1.8    -6.3    1004	  84	  99    0.08	 528	 525   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -2.6    -8.0    1006	  83	  98    0.05	 526	 521   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.8    -8.5    1010	  59	  69    0.03	 528	 521   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.5    -9.3    1013	  66	 100    0.01	 527	 517

MKE:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   0.3    -4.7    1003	  79	  83    0.01	 534	 532   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB  -0.6    -5.7    1003	  82	 100    0.08	 530	 528   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.8    -7.1    1004	  87	  97    0.08	 525	 523   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.4    -8.4    1008	  53	  98    0.04	 527	 521   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   1.0    -8.4    1011	  62	  98    0.03	 528	 519   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.4   -10.5    1014	  56	  85    0.01	 525	 515

SBM:

 
FRI 06Z 24-FEB  -1.2    -6.8    1004	  80	  93    0.02	 529	 526   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -2.0    -8.1    1005	  87	 100    0.07	 525	 521   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.9    -9.7    1008	  58	  99    0.03	 527	 520   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.1    -9.0    1011	  68	  98    0.02	 527	 519   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -3.2   -10.3    1013	  73	  98    0.02	 525	 515   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -5.3   -12.1    1017	  67	  95    0.02	 525	 512

CID:

 
THU 18Z 23-FEB   3.4    -1.9	 999	  80	 100    0.04	 535	 536   
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   1.0    -3.4    1000	  98	  99    0.14	 532	 532   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.4    -5.1    1004	  94	  99    0.16	 528	 525   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -2.2    -7.8    1009	  83	  73    0.03	 529	 522

DVN:

 
THU 18Z 23-FEB   4.5    -1.7	 999	  77	  97    0.04	 537	 538   
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   1.6    -3.1	 999	  98	 100    0.17	 534	 534   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.4    -4.9    1002	  96	  99    0.18	 528	 526   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.5    -7.1    1007	  90	 100    0.08	 529	 523
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   3.5    -8.7    1013	  52	  62    0.00	 531	 521   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   1.1    -8.8    1016	  42	  52    0.01	 530	 518

PIA:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   4.8	 0.8	 997	  91	  94    0.05	 539	 541   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   2.8    -2.4    1000	  98	  23    0.07	 534	 533   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.3    -6.0    1006	  92	  84    0.03	 529	 524   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   4.4    -7.7    1013	  55	  84    0.02	 533	 522   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   2.2    -8.5    1016	  41	  41    0.01	 532	 519

RFD:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   1.1    -3.5    1001	  87	 100    0.09	 534	 534   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB  -1.0    -5.0    1002	  86	 100    0.16	 529	 527   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -1.7    -7.0    1005	  85	 100    0.10	 527	 522   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.0    -7.9    1010	  66	  71    0.01	 529	 521   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.2    -8.8    1014	  67	  83    0.02	 529	 518

ORD:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   1.0    -3.4    1001	  88	  99    0.10	 536	 536   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.4    -4.7    1001	  93	  94    0.15	 532	 531   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.5    -5.7    1003	  90	  99    0.16	 526	 524   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.3    -7.7    1009	  61	  90    0.03	 529	 522   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.8    -7.8    1012	  69	  84    0.02	 530	 520   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -5.5   -10.9    1015	  70	  59    0.01	 527	 515

MDW:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   1.9    -2.9    1001	  88	 100    0.11	 537	 537   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.7    -3.6    1000	  95	  87    0.13	 533	 533   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.1    -5.6    1002	  91	  96    0.16	 527	 525   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   2.3    -8.2    1009	  62	  88    0.03	 529	 522   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   1.4    -7.7    1012	  69	  79    0.02	 530	 520   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -3.1   -10.6    1015	  62	  67    0.01	 527	 515

VPZ:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.0    -1.9    1000	  88	  99    0.06	 539	 539   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.8    -1.1	 999	  95	  73    0.05	 536	 537   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.5    -4.8    1000	  98	  72    0.10	 528	 528   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.5    -8.2    1009	  77	  90    0.05	 530	 522   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.9    -7.5    1012	  74	  91    0.02	 531	 521   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -1.7    -9.9    1015	  62	  74    0.01	 527	 516

FWA:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   4.1    -0.1    1000	  76	  89    0.02	 543	 543   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   2.8	 1.9	 999	  92	  54    0.03	 541	 542   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   4.4    -2.3	 998	  95	  12    0.02	 535	 537   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   5.0    -5.2    1005	  62	  74    0.03	 530	 526   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.7    -7.6    1012	  65	  88    0.03	 531	 521   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -1.0    -8.4    1013	  77	  84    0.01	 529	 518   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -3.6   -11.4    1017	  57	  42    0.01	 527	 514

MKG:

 
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.5    -5.4    1002	  79	 100    0.07	 532	 531   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.4    -6.4    1002	  87	 100    0.07	 526	 524   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.5    -7.9    1006	  78	  99    0.07	 526	 521   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.6    -9.3    1011	  67	  87    0.01	 528	 519   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -1.5    -9.5    1012	  82	  99    0.02	 526	 517   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -2.8   -10.9    1014	  83	  97    0.04	 525	 514   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB  -0.5   -11.3    1020	  60	  70    0.03	 531	 515

GRR:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.5    -4.6    1002	  66	  55    0.01	 536	 535   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   0.7    -4.8    1001	  81	 100    0.06	 534	 533   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.7    -6.1    1000	  86	 100    0.11	 527	 526   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.5    -7.6    1005	  70	  99    0.12	 526	 523   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -4.0    -9.2    1010	  78	 100    0.02	 527	 519   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -3.8    -9.6    1011	  78	  97    0.00	 526	 517   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -4.4   -10.6    1014	  85	  96    0.01	 525	 514   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB  -0.2   -10.8    1019	  63	  76    0.03	 530	 515   
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -5.7   -12.0    1025	  70	  21    0.01	 541	 522

BTL:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.3    -3.8    1002	  72	  86    0.01	 538	 537   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.3    -3.9    1000	  88	  95    0.04	 536	 536   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.1    -4.7	 999	  91	  86    0.17	 528	 529   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.5    -7.3    1005	  70	  94    0.15	 527	 523   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -3.0    -8.5    1011	  81	  98    0.03	 528	 520   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -5.0    -9.1    1012	  91	  95    0.01	 527	 517   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -3.3   -10.7    1014	  83	  95    0.03	 525	 514   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB  -0.4   -10.5    1019	  62	  80    0.06	 530	 515   
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -7.1   -11.3    1025	  77	  20    0.01	 542	 522

ADG:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.4    -2.6    1002	  73	 100    0.01	 540	 539   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.5    -2.4    1001	  75	  91    0.01	 540	 539   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.3    -1.8	 998	  92	  32    0.10	 533	 535   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   1.6    -6.9    1003	  77	  82    0.09	 528	 525   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -0.2    -7.2    1009	  79	  97    0.02	 529	 521   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -4.7    -9.1    1012	  85	  87    0.00	 527	 518   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -2.4   -10.0    1014	  85	  96    0.01	 526	 515   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   1.2    -9.9    1018	  50	  93    0.03	 529	 515   
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -2.7   -10.5    1025	  65	  42    0.01	 540	 520

DTW:

 
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.1    -2.3	 999	  86	  71    0.08	 534	 535   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.6    -6.4    1001	  84	  93    0.12	 527	 526   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.1    -7.5    1008	  78	  99    0.03	 528	 522   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -5.6    -9.5    1011	  83	  90    0.01	 527	 518   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -6.8   -10.0    1013	  88	  92    0.00	 525	 515   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   0.9   -10.5    1017	  55	  86    0.01	 529	 516

PHN:

 
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.2    -4.2    1000	  76	  98    0.04	 533	 534   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB  -0.2    -6.4    1000	  85	  95    0.15	 526	 526   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -1.1    -8.1    1007	  82	  90    0.06	 527	 521   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -5.2   -10.1    1009	  84	  90    0.02	 525	 518   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -6.7   -10.6    1011	  84	 100    0.00	 524	 516   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   0.3   -11.8    1015	  53	  98    0.02	 528	 516   
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -2.4   -10.7    1022	  70	  53    0.01	 536	 519

TDZ:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   3.5    -1.9    1002	  79	 100    0.01	 542	 540   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.1    -0.4    1001	  89	  96    0.04	 542	 541   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   1.4	 0.3	 998	  96	  31    0.03	 536	 538   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   3.2    -5.2    1002	  90	  80    0.07	 529	 528   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   1.3    -6.8    1009	  76	 100    0.01	 529	 522   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.9    -9.0    1012	  81	  93    0.00	 528	 519   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -2.0    -9.8    1014	  84	  97    0.01	 526	 515   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   1.9    -9.5    1017	  47	  97    0.03	 529	 515   
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -0.7   -10.2    1024	  56	  50    0.02	 539	 520

CLE:

 
FRI 00Z 24-FEB   2.8    -1.8    1003	  79	  98    0.01	 543	 540   
FRI 06Z 24-FEB   1.7	 0.3    1001	  92	 100    0.27	 544	 543   
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   2.6	 2.4	 998	  95	  48    0.05	 540	 542   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   5.6    -4.2    1000	  64	  19    0.02	 534	 534   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.6    -7.3    1008	  79	  99    0.02	 530	 523   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -1.7    -8.9    1011	  79	  95    0.02	 528	 519   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -2.7    -9.7    1013	  87	 100    0.00	 526	 516   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   0.8    -9.9    1017	  66	  87    0.05	 529	 515   
SUN 00Z 26-FEB  -0.5   -10.0    1023	  66	  77    0.02	 536	 518

YKF:

 
FRI 12Z 24-FEB  -0.8    -4.2    1001	  83	  98    0.03	 536	 535   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.3    -4.3	 997	  92	  75    0.18	 529	 531   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB  -1.0    -7.8    1003	  89	  94    0.11	 525	 523   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -2.8    -9.0    1005	  90	  93    0.02	 524	 519   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -3.0   -10.0    1007	  90	  90    0.02	 523	 517   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB  -0.7   -10.5    1012	  66	  98    0.05	 526	 517

YZZ:

 
FRI 12Z 24-FEB   0.4    -4.5    1001	  85	  93    0.02	 536	 535   
FRI 18Z 24-FEB   0.5    -3.8	 997	  94	  80    0.19	 531	 533   
SAT 00Z 25-FEB   0.1    -7.7    1001	  87	  88    0.13	 525	 524   
SAT 06Z 25-FEB  -1.3    -8.5    1004	  87	  90    0.01	 523	 520   
SAT 12Z 25-FEB  -1.8    -9.9    1006	  86	  92    0.00	 522	 517   
SAT 18Z 25-FEB   0.2   -10.3    1010	  61	 100    0.02	 525	 517

Stebo · February 23, 2012

I doubt it would be able to resolve the intense banding in a situation like this.

Bingo, plus Euro has consistently underdone QPF all winter it seems like, I know of a handful of events locally where it way undershot the QPF.

Geos · February 23, 2012

< Wow, lower MI!

cyclone77 · February 23, 2012

I doubt it would be able to resolve the intense banding in a situation like this.

Yeah I think it has a tendency to low-ball amounts with events like this with potential upright convection contributions.

BowMeHunter · February 23, 2012

ruc me. To many tools for us weenies.

Stebo · February 23, 2012

BTW I loaded BUFKIT and yes there is decent elevated instability in both the NAM and GFS over S. MI, this just builds confidence more that there will be thundersnow with this event.

kab2791 · February 23, 2012

BTW I loaded BUFKIT and yes there is decent elevated instability in both the NAM and GFS over S. MI, this just builds confidence more that there will be thundersnow with this event.

You working DTW tomorrow night, would like to see a TSSN obs in there?

cyclone77 · February 23, 2012

Now that the last of the 00z models are in, I think my final call for here is 3", more narrowed down from the broad 2-5" from earlier. I'd go with 2-3" for the QC. I think mainly rain during the day tomorrow, with occasional bursts of wet snow mixing in, finally changing over to all snow late in the day. Probably a 1-2hr period of heavy wet snow early tomorrow evening, followed by residual light snow.

I think Hawkeye has a good shot at 6-8". CR will be just north of the impeding thermal ridge, and will still benefit from the higher qpf axis.

I think the heaviest snows will line up from Cedar Rapids through De Kalb, over to Chicago in this area.

Stebo · February 23, 2012

Working DTW tomorrow night, would like to see a TSSN obs in there.

Nope I am off tomorrow thankfully, I get to enjoy this from my living room

Thunder Road · February 23, 2012

Ukie is drier than last night, but not considerably. GGEM is a drier version of the RGEM, but all things considered, still a decent event (based solely off QPF, not bl temps).

hawkeye_wx · February 23, 2012

At 36 hours the Euro is about 8 mb weaker with the surface low than the NAM and GFS. That's a pretty big gap.

Member Statistics

All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

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