All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

[cyclone77]

Very latest RUC 700mb rh/ omega map at 2pm Thursday... I-80/hw30 corridor gets it in Iowa.

Very nice. Things are looking better and better for our areas.

[Snowstorms]

0z RGEM looks almost exactly identical to the 0z Nam.

Looks great

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/513_100.gif

[Geos]

looks like the 21z SREF mean will be south and stronger with the 500mb vort than 15z.

here! Keeps southern WI in the game.

[wisconsinwx]

Normally no but this close in and only the GFS on your side is not good for those to the north.

Beast from the east would be Douche Noah after seeing the NAM if he was back home.

Just got back from the MU game. At least something went well; it would be icing on the cake if the best chance for a storm so far missed just south. Hoping beyond all hope the NAM and some other models are wrong.

[BowMeHunter]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI

926 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

UPDATE

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND MIN TEMPS FOR

TONIGHT. PREVIOUS SHIFT WENT THE RIGHT DIRECTION WITH THE FCST ON

THURSDAY...BY SIDING WITH MODELS FAVORING A SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WV IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWED THE ECMWF TO HAVE

THE BEST HANDLE ON THE KEY UPSTREAM FEATURES AT 00Z. THE 00Z NAM

HAS FINALLY CAUGHT ON...AND KEEPS C/NE WI DRY THROUGH 00Z FRI...

SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF. HAVE REMOVED POPS IN C/EC WI ON THURS...

BUT WILL LEAVE ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIODS FOR THE

MID SHIFT.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Well, it's better to be prepared for the worst than to blindly hope for the best I think.

Well said. I can remember the December 30,1997 bust. They called for a foot of snow in Toronto and we got absolutely nothing, except for a few flurries.

[A-L-E-K]

gfs coming south.

[BowMeHunter]

Just got back from the MU game. At least something went well; it would be icing on the cake if the best chance for a storm so far missed just south. Hoping beyond all hope the NAM and some other models are wrong.

GFS got the memo.

1-2" of slop like alek said.. no big storm anywhere.

[Chicago Storm]

given the NAM finally came in line with the rest of guidance...

CAPE and high amounts of omega within the column (ORD).

[A-L-E-K]

GFS got the memo.

1-2" of slop like alek said.. no big storm anywhere.

at least i nailed S. Wisconsin.

[A-L-E-K]

GFS looks like it will follow along with the increase in qpf, looks wet

[Geos]

I think Skilling mentioned lake enhancement with this system.

[AppsRunner]

Poor souls on the north and especially south sie of the gradient.

If this isn't the ultimate slap in the face I don't know what is... literally 6-10" 25 miles north of me on the NAM.

[BeastFromTheEast]

My call and explaination...yes I saw the 0z NAM but after I typed this.

Small changes in track/temp profiles will have ramifications for both Chicago and Detroit, one way or another.

Great write up as always!! Love the snowmap

[tuanis]

Well this one has certainly surprised many of us. Bring on the gloppy white stuff!

[Powerball]

SLIGHT improvement on the GFS. Still looks like crap.

[OHweather]

Great write up as always!! Love the snowmap

Thanks! I would still be a bit edgy on the north edge though, especially with what the 0z models have done thus far. Will be a narrow band of heavy wet snow.

[BowMeHunter]

GFS got pwned.. just a worthless model 9 times outta 10. I know they work hard trying to improve it but for f's sake.. sure hope they don't cut funding back in that department.

[hm8]

GFS:

[snowstormcanuck]

SLIGHT improvement on the GFS. Still looks like crap.

Yeah, better than the 18z for us but still pretty far north.

[snowstormcanuck]

For the Toronto posters. 0z NAM was actually not drier than the 18z run. Still around 0.90" QPF. Presence of some elevated cape as well as some killer omega (30 -ubars/s). If it were to verify, I'd expect some thundersnow.

[Stebo]

SLIGHT improvement on the GFS. Still looks like crap.

Nah it is a large improvement, I would question the erratic path it takes after it rounds the bend, but up until that point it is pretty good plus it follows the trend of going South.

[Geos]

[BowMeHunter]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

939 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

SHORT TERM

TONIGHT

938 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...THE GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE

SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA HAVE BEEN LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN

WYOMING...WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. IN

ADDITION...THE 850 MB TO 500 MB WINDS HAVE BEEN FAVORING A MOVE

SOUTHERN TRACK WITH ITS MID AND UPPER SHORT WAVE. THE 22.12Z ECMWF...

GEM...AND UKMET FAVORED A MUCH SOUTHERN SOLUTION. THROUGHOUT THE

EVENING...WE HAVE WATCHED THE RUC...ARX GFS...AND 23.00Z NAM/WRF

ALSO COME ALONG TO THIS SOUTHERN SOLUTION. WITH THIS TRACK...IT

CAME APPARENT THAT AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WOULD

LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM. AS A

RESULT...THEY WERE DROPPED FROM THE WINTER STORM WATCH.

MEANWHILE AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN

MAY STILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FROM LATE

THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE

HIGHER AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF MASON CITY IOWA TO LANCASTER

WISCONSIN LINE. DUE TO THIS THE WINTER WATCH WAS LEFT UP.

[Jonger]

Lets put all the money on the 00z NAM. I like the mega dump potential in southern Michigan more then the garden variety 5-8 inch GFS.

[Chicago Storm]

new LOT map...

[cyclone77]

Extremely difficult call for the QCA. Very fine line separating a primary rain/tail-end snow event from a significant snowstorm. Thermo profiles are a little warm for much of the day tomorrow before crashing after 21z. We stay in sort of a thermal ridge as the surface low passes just south/and sort of pivots the rain/snow line in this area. This could keep us all rain for much of the day, which would really kill snow amounts. On the flip side, the dynamics with this thing are VERY impressive, and could easily overcome the relatively shallow warm layer. That's something that will probably have to wait and see how things trend tomorrow morning upstream.

If I was forecasting for this area I'd probably go with a broad brush 2-5" type forecast. I could easily see us busting on either side of that though. With the extreme dynamics and very strong baroclinic zone, combined with a relatively slow moving system leads me to believe a few locations could top the 10" mark.

[toronto blizzard]

For the Toronto posters. 0z NAM was actually not drier than the 18z run. Still around 0.90" QPF. Presence of some elevated cape as well as some killer omega (30 -ubars/s). If it were to verify, I'd expect some thundersnow.

You believe the 00z GFS

[michsnowfreak]

Yeah, better than the 18z for us but still pretty far north.

Agree. A definite improvement per trends, but verbatum its insane the difference sensible weatherwise between the NAM and GFS. the difference between being buried in cement snow or rain/snow mix. Luckily the GFS is the outlier.

[BowMeHunter]

Like the Euro was any good. Those pos strung out lows it kept pushing out where terrific.

They all struggled but in the end like 9 times out of 10 the NWS sides with a euro more like solution over the US garbage.