All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

[dmc76]

Speechless!

Same here. Awesome eye candy. Just need the gfs to verify

[Stebo]

Trend is our friend. Another nudge to the south and we might be able to avoid most of it. Even if it does surge in here, it looks like several hours of snow our ahead of it.

I agree for DTX's area as well, another minor nudge to the South and we won't have to worry about dryslotting here either.

[toronto blizzard]

I94/401 special!

Let's hope so

[snowstormcanuck]

Stop getting all worked up and sad now and making me feel depressed.

I want snow for f*ck sakes.Its been years since we've seen a "widespread" snowstorm.

Well, it's better to be prepared for the worst than to blindly hope for the best I think.

[Geos]

with Izzi talking like that and the increasing chance this is a night event, a period of +SN looks likely somewhere close by

Is this moving in towards PM rush hour then? I was thinking more towards 2pm or so.

[Ajdos]

I think M59 and I94 hit hard..12"? Holy shamoly.. Really?..Usually nam picks up stuff at the last minute tho..

[cyclone77]

It is interesting how 'dry' the models have been with this storm until recent runs. I realize it is because of how poor they were handling this system but it sure seem or feels opposite of the past several years.

BI pointed out earlier that these low amplitude systems have a tendency to give the models fits. It is kind of funny after watching so many fantasy storms over the past several months that a system at seemingly the last second sneaks up and dumps (potentially).

[weatherpsycho]

I could cry over the 18z GFS and wet my pants over the 00z NAM! OMG what I wouldnt give for the NAM to verify.....love the slight south trend, I will take a little bit more please!

NAM is enough south. Please stop right there. Not sure why you would want it any further south as it appears this run has more snow around I94 then the northern burbs (thought that would depend on ratios).

[snowstormcanuck]

I know remember GHD 2011

That's a prime example.

Funny thing is, that even though this was a juicy NAM run overall, and even though the track looks better than it did at 18z, I think we're actually going to lose about ~0.10" of QPF off the 18z run at YYZ.

[Powerball]

Those UVV numbers are off the charts, especially the HIGHER up you go (which bodes well for monster flakes, *good ratios*, and thundersnow.

[Snowstorms]

Well, it's better to be prepared for the worst than to blindly hope for the best I think.

Clearly you're the most depressed person here. I'd sit back and watch what happens. So dont always fear for the worst.

So enjoy the possible 3-6"+ we may get

[A-L-E-K]

Think it might be time to revise your 0.5" call? I think now could be a good time

no way ride or die.

Seriously, i have no clue. The NAM was similar to 18z but was a tad warmer with the stronger system and we just won't have a ton of wiggle room temp wise and the ever present fear of underdone WAA remains. The dynamics of a strengthening systems are what is impressive, such intense omega/vvs under that defo band scream power band.

LOT probably will have a double digit gradient across their CWA.

[dmc76]

I could cry over the 18z GFS and wet my pants over the 00z NAM! OMG what I wouldnt give for the NAM to verify.....love the slight south trend, I will take a little bit more please!

Reminds Me of the dec 2000 storm. I think had a similar track. Call was for 4-7" ended up with 17.5"

[weatherpsycho]

BI pointed out earlier that these low amplitude systems have a tendency to give the models fits. It is kind of funny after watching so many fantasy storms over the past several months that a system at seemingly the last second sneaks up and dumps (potentially).

Yep I recall his post. It just has been interesting. Has more of a 'surprise' feel this way.

[michsnowfreak]

It is interesting how 'dry' the models have been with this storm until recent runs. I realize it is because of how poor they were handling this system but it sure seem or feels opposite of the past several years.

Still not super excited (worried about GFS) but am in love with the NAM......but i have been noticing (KNOCK ON WOOD) that almost all of our snow events have been overperforming bc model qpf was too dry. Its been a sh*tty winter any possible way you slice it, but you still cant ignore that fact. Whereas...in recent years when weve been breaking snow record after snow record it seemed unimportant but still many of the snow events the qpf was overdone. We would have seen 90-120" winters rather than 60-80" if the 48-hour qpf maps verified the last 4 years lol

[A-L-E-K]

Is this moving in towards PM rush hour then? I was thinking more towards 2pm or so.

read izzi's update, heavy snows would be post pm rush hour late evening.

[Thundersnow12]

great update from Ratzer/Izzi, WSW coming for I-80 northward

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

823 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

DISCUSSION

822 PM CST

WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH SHORTLY FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH

OF I-80 FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT REGION THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...

170 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH

COLUMBIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW 175

KT AMDAR AIRCRAFT OBS NOTED OVER WASHINGTON STATE. SOMEWHAT SHEARED

MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET STREAK WAS

NOTED IN EVENING VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WHERE

THERE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING

AND CONVECTION TODAY. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE

DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE FORMING A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CENTER

SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHWEST IA BY EARLY THURSDAY

MORNING. 12-18Z MODELS CLUSTER AROUND A COUPLE OF SUBTLY DIFFERENT

EVOLUTIONS OF SURFACE LOW TRACK...WITH A SLIGHTLY NORTHERLY TRACK

FROM IA INTO CENTRAL IL FROM THE HOMEGROWN GFS/WRF/SREF

CAMPS...AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH TRACK FROM

NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IL FROM THE IMPORTED SOLUTIONS OF

THE EC/GEM/UK.

IN EITHER CASE...MODELS INITIALLY GENERALLY DEVELOP PRECIP FROM THE

IA/MO BORDER REGION INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL TOWARD/DURING THURSDAY

MORNING...ALONG DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED

WITH LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY AND BACKING LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WITH

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. MODEL TRENDS

GENERALLY FAVOR WEST CENTRAL IL INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE KLOT

CWA FOR PRECIP THROUGH MIDDAY THRUSDAY. WHILE THERMAL PROFILES

APPEAR A LITTLE MARGINAL FOR ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW INITIALLY...LOW

LEVEL TEMPS AND WET BULBS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA

QUICKLY WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN BY MID THURSDAY MORNING.

PROFILES REMAIN MORE MARGINAL CLOSE TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER...THOUGH

PRECIP EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER FARTHER NORTH WITH SURFACE TEMPS AND

WET BULBS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY THAT TIME. THUS WHILE SOME WET

SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...NOT

MUCH IF ANY IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE

SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA BASKS IN A RELATIVELY MILD LOW LEVEL THERMAL

PROFILE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL

ISENTROPIC FORCING SHIFTS INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL/NORTHERN IN AND

NORTHERN OH.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW THEN INCREASES TOWARD THURSDAY EVENING...AS

DEEPENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES FROM IA INTO NORTHERN IL AND

ASSOCIATED DEEP ASCENT INCREASES. EVEN IN GUIDANCE WITH FARTHER

NORTH LOW TRACK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT STRONG DYNAMIC

COOLING OF COLUMN WHICH WOULD INDICATE A FAIRLY QUICK CHANGE OVER

TO A HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS AREAS PARTICULARLY NEAR/NORTH OF

INTERSTATE 80...COINCIDENT WITH ARRIVAL/STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL

DEFORMATION BANDED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

SOUNDINGS/PARTIAL THICKNESS FIELDS ALL INDICATE THAT DEFORMATION

BAND PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BECOME ALL SNOW...WITH GUIDANCE

INDICATING GENERALLY 0.25-0.50 INCH LIQUID QPF DURING THE

THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z WRF-NAM SUGGESTING QPF

AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH (THIS LIKELY AT LEAST PARTIALLY A RESULT OF

THE UPRIGHT CONVECTION IT DEVELOPS TOMORROW EVENING). MID-LEVEL

LAPSE RATES FROM SEVERAL MODELS ARE FORECAST IN THE 7 TO 7.5

DEG/KM RANGE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT

AND THUNDERSNOW WHICH COULD AID IN PRODUCING SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE

SNOWFALL RATES FOR A TIME THURSDAY NIGHT.

RATZER/IZZI

[toronto blizzard]

That's a prime example.

Funny thing is, that even though this was a juicy NAM run overall, and even though the track looks better than it did at 18z, I think we're actually going to lose about ~0.10" of QPF off the 18z run at YYZ.

Think we have a chance at thundersnow?

[BowMeHunter]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

830 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

UPDATE

00Z NAM CONTINUES IT'S TREND SOUTH AND IS SLOWER. BEST UPWARD

MOTION AND PRECIP WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IF 00Z

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES THIS TREND WE MAY NOT NEED ANY HEADLINES...OR

MAYBE JUST ALONG THE ILLINOIS BORDER.

FOR NOW WILL LET THE WATCH CONTINUE. NAM PUTS OUT ONE INCH OF QPF

FROM NEAR MOLINE ILLINOIS TO SOUTH SIDE OF CHICAGO. MAX IN

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS 0.36 NEAR KENOSHA WITH A SHARP DROP OFF

ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH COUNTIES.

HOWEVER GFS HAS BEEN THE MORE NORTHERN MODEL AND IS NOT YET IN AS

OD 0230Z.

[Snowstorms]

Think we have a chance at thundersnow?

Thunder snow would most certainly help raise amounts locally but its a possibility. If the atmosphere is conductive for thunder snow, its possible but I think the potential is greater further south since the atmosphere looks much more ripe further south. Also it depends how the great the temperature differences are between the surface and the atmosphere much like in the Summer but more unstable conditions

[snowstormcanuck]

Clearly you're the most depressed person here. I'd sit back and watch what happens. So dont always fear for the worst.

So enjoy the possible 3-6"+ we may get

lol @ your description of yourself. You fawn over the model that's the snowiest and then cry BUST when it doesn't occur.

[snowstormcanuck]

Think we have a chance at thundersnow?

I'll check for elevated CAPE when the soundings come out. On first glance though, doesn't scream out to me as a typical TSSN situation.

[cyclone77]

no way ride or die.

Seriously, i have no clue. The NAM was similar to 18z but was a tad warmer with the stronger system and we just won't have a ton of wiggle room temp wise and the ever present fear of underdone WAA remains. The dynamics of a strengthening systems are what is impressive, such intense omega/vvs under that defo band scream power band.

LOT probably will have a double digit gradient across their CWA.

What makes the forecast potentially even more challenging is the intense banding that will develop. Underneath those bands there's a good chance it will be all snow, while just outside of it there could be light rain. Could make for some huge variations in amounts if that happens. Anyone who can get caught underneath an intense band for quite awhile may really get dumped on.

[A-L-E-K]

What makes the forecast potentially even more challenging is the intense banding that will develop. Underneath those bands there's a good chance it will be all snow, while just outside of it there could be light rain. Could make for some huge variations in amounts if that happens. Anyone who can get caught underneath an intense band for quite awhile may really get dumped on.

The LOT discussion makes a good case for going to all snow with the defo band action, so i'm warming to the idea.

These heavy wet snow events following misty weather always stick to everything and look awesome for a day.

[Geos]

Skilling just posted this:

Winter storm watch coming! Chicago is in for a classic late winter snowstorm. Latest guidance places rain/snow low through our southern suburbs--so indications are snow will develop late Thu morning and turn heavy Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Thursday evening's rush hour could fall in the heart of the heaviest snowfall. More on our 9PM show on WGN tonight.

[Snowstorms]

lol @ your description of yourself. You fawn over the model that's the snowiest and then cry BUST when it doesn't occur.

lol. I analyze alot of variables before I come to my conclusion but this Winter hasnt been a "Winter"....so I dont deserve as much discipline.

All I'm saying is..be patient. Dry slot should be your concern when the snow is falling outside or in a region nearby.

[Stebo]

no way ride or die.

Seriously, i have no clue. The NAM was similar to 18z but was a tad warmer with the stronger system and we just won't have a ton of wiggle room temp wise and the ever present fear of underdone WAA remains. The dynamics of a strengthening systems are what is impressive, such intense omega/vvs under that defo band scream power band.

LOT probably will have a double digit gradient across their CWA.

Yeah it is a tough forecast especially with it coming mid afternoon too, any earlier will hurt, any later will help.

[michsnowfreak]

My nerves the last 24 hours...we go from a big old wtf will there be a storm, wont there be a storm...to wow we get a snowstorm....to f*** now its gonna be a rainstorm....to now possible getting a major snowstorm. This is why I NEVER panic/get too excited about the longterm models lol. This is the kind of anxiety weve been missing all winter?

[Thundersnow12]

Skilling going nuts over the 0z NAM, loving it. FWIW here is the RPM model which had very small amounts the previous run (0.7" at ORD). New run should be out within an hour or so.

[Ajdos]

My nerves the last 24 hours...we go from a big old wtf will there be a storm, wont there be a storm...to wow we get a snowstorm....to f*** now its gonna be a rainstorm....to now possible getting a major snowstorm. This is why I NEVER panic/get too excited about the longterm models lol. This is the kind of anxiety weve been missing all winter?

Ugh... I hope this excitement does not lead to a bad end...... ugh....or else...