All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

[Stebo]

EC and TWN show no snow accumulations...

They will be wrong if unchanged...

[SpartyOn]

Ouch on the potential dry slot.

[on_wx]

EC and TWN show no snow accumulations...

TWN had 10cm on both thurs/fri here...now it's 5-10cm thurs and 1-3cm fri.

[Snowstorms]

Only thing that makes me want to side with it is the fact that a: this winter's sucked, and b: my luck sucks generally. Not exactly airtight meteorological reasoning.

18z RGEM

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/18_054_R1_north@america_I_QPFTYPES_t6_036.png

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/18_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg

18z RGEM looks exactly like the 18z Nam.

[Baum]

Think a sqeege is needed more than a snow pusher for this event.... GFS modeling looks very wet for the Detroit area for this one.

we bill for a that too. FWIW...no shock this winter has come down to an April snow in late Feb.....

[michsnowfreak]

Cant stand to see the 18z GFS. Like the NAM but really really hoping for a south trend, am on the southern edge of nice snowfall, zero room for north trend of consensus...ukmet ftw! Its nice to be under a WSW, but like I said wrt getting an advisory criteria snowfall on Feb 10th when no advisory was issued, I enjoyed the storm regardless of the lack of headline...if we get rain, I will get zero pleasure out of being finally under a WSW lol.

And for everyone thinking the worst possible scenario will play out for their backyard, remember, EVERYONE has had a crummy winter, so SOMEONE WILL get that overdue dumping.

[snowstormcanuck]

I think it's psychological. Expect the worst in the hope that the best will materialize. Also, this winter has sucked, so why would it change now?

I can relate.

[turtlehurricane]

GFS gives us over 0.9" liquid. I'll believe it when I see it.

[AppsRunner]

The abysmal winter for TOL continues. Congrats to those who benefit from the event though. It will be nice to see some heavy wet snow pictures

[snowstormcanuck]

18z RGEM

http://www.weatherof...YPES_t6_036.png

http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_048.jpg

18z RGEM looks exactly like the 18z Nam.

Prelim, I'm thinking 2-5" for us. Even discounting the GFS, EURO QPF wasn't astounding.

[Snowstorms]

Prelim, I'm thinking 2-5" for us. Even discounting the GFS, EURO QPF wasn't astounding.

2-5" is a reasonable number. Here's the qpf from the 18z GEFS. All snow for us;

10:1 sounds good.

The South including Southern MI does see some mixing/rain for a bit.

[cyclone77]

FWIW, the 24hr RUC and HRRR look a little further south than some of the other guidance. 24hr RUC really hits the I-80 corridor hard, but BL is warm enough to keep a lot of it rain from the looks of things.

[Indystorm]

Current IWX thinking for Michiana is 2-4 inches, possibly more with this system. It seems today that the system has been trending southward as I noted northern WI areas have dropped the WSW's.

[Geos]

FWIW, the 24hr RUC and HRRR look a little further south than some of the other guidance. 24hr RUC really hits the I-80 corridor hard, but BL is warm enough to keep a lot of it rain from the looks of things.

Maybe the DVN office graphic for 4-8" in your area will be right on!

[gosaints]

Most signs are pointing to the southern solution winning out.

[kab2791]

21Z SREF back to a more NW/wet solution compared to the 15Z run

[gosaints]

21Z SREF back to a more NW/wet solution compared to the 15Z run

LOL we will have a locked in solution tomorrow night at 0z.

[cyclone77]

Maybe the DVN office graphic for 4-8" in your area will be right on!

I think there is an outside chance actually. I believe the southern solutions win out, but the shaky thermo profiles leave me a little skeptical at this point.

[cyclone77]

DVN update with their latest thinking..

UPDATE...

MAIN CONCERN TO MONITOR THIS EVENING IS HOW THE SURFACE LOW AND

PRECIPITATION PATTERNS DEVELOP OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AS OF

00Z...THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA...SHOWING THAT THE

GFS...NAM...AND EVEN CANADIAN GEM ARE TOO FAR NORTHEAST WITH THIER

SURFACE LOW CENTERS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER...BUT THE MODEL

RESOLUTION MAKES THAT COMPARISON SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT. THIS EVENING

IF THE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS FOR TOMORROWS SYSTEM WILL BE CORRECT THE

SURFACE LOW NEEDS TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTH...AND A SIGNIFICANT

PRECIPITATION BAND NEEDS TO SET UP OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

OTHERWISE...IF THE PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE LOW ARE FARTHER

SOUTH...THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS WILL BE FAVORED. ..LE..

[ILSNOW]

chicago aviation

DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THURS MORNING AS

CURRENT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VARIABLE CLOUD DECKS SHIFTS EAST

AND PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND

EVENING. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL GO MORE EASTERLY

TOMORROW AND NORTHEAST TOMORROW EVENING PICKING UP TO THE 8-12KT

RANGE.

EXPECT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...TO DEVELOP THURSDAY

AFTERNOON WITH CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO FALL QUICKLY TO MVFR AND

EVENTUALLY IFR AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE AND COOL. WHILE CANNOT RULE

OUT SOME SNOW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT

CHANGE OVER TO ALL WET AND POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER

DARK THURSDAY WHICH WOULD COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGER FORCING AND

MORE SUBSTANTIAL DYNAMIC COOLING. POTENTIAL EXISTS NOT ONLY FOR

HEAVY SNOW BUT POSSIBLY EVEN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY

SNOW THURSDAY EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. FOR NOW THERE IS

ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO JUST GO WITH PROB30 FOR 1/2SM MODERATE SNOW

BUT AS CONFIDENCE GROWS LATER TAFS MAY END UP BEING EVEN MORE

PESSIMISTIC.

IZZI

[Thundersnow12]

DVN update with their latest thinking..

UPDATE...

MAIN CONCERN TO MONITOR THIS EVENING IS HOW THE SURFACE LOW AND

PRECIPITATION PATTERNS DEVELOP OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AS OF

00Z...THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA...SHOWING THAT THE

GFS...NAM...AND EVEN CANADIAN GEM ARE TOO FAR NORTHEAST WITH THIER

SURFACE LOW CENTERS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER...BUT THE MODEL

RESOLUTION MAKES THAT COMPARISON SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT. THIS EVENING

IF THE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS FOR TOMORROWS SYSTEM WILL BE CORRECT THE

SURFACE LOW NEEDS TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTH...AND A SIGNIFICANT

PRECIPITATION BAND NEEDS TO SET UP OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

OTHERWISE...IF THE PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE LOW ARE FARTHER

SOUTH...THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS WILL BE FAVORED. ..LE..

was just going to post out this, Sfc low looks like its even in extreme northwest SD where the GFS had it up in eastern MT.

As of 0z, lowest pressure was in that area.

[gosaints]

NAM looks further south than Rush Limbaugh is right.

[Thundersnow12]

Gino I see you lurking!! Nice little discussion sir.

[Stebo]

was just going to post out this, Sfc low looks like its even in extreme northwest SD where the GFS had it up in eastern MT.

As of 0z, lowest pressure was in that area.

Yeah that is substantially South comparatively.

Btw that update from LOT makes me smile because I love to cash in on some thundersnow out this way.

[cyclone77]

was just going to post out this, Sfc low looks like its even in extreme northwest SD where the GFS had it up in eastern MT.

As of 0z, lowest pressure was in that area.

Yup. I'm almost sold on the further south solution, so I'll really be anxious to see the new 00z forecast soundings by each model. If things come in a little bit colder I'll be pretty damn happy.

[DAFF]

Hopefully it does snow and the temps are a tad below 30deg around Detroit. That way the ratios will be 10:1 or greater. @32deg 8:1 ratos would greatly reduce the snow amounts and increse the weights.

A 3" snow would be a dumping in these parts this season!!!

[Snowstorms]

It may dip south, but then further west.

Seems to be more robust than the 18z thru 24 hours as well.

[A-L-E-K]

0z NAM has a super intense heavy wet snow band

Omega bomb

[A-L-E-K]

chicago aviation

DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THURS MORNING AS

CURRENT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VARIABLE CLOUD DECKS SHIFTS EAST

AND PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND

EVENING. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL GO MORE EASTERLY

TOMORROW AND NORTHEAST TOMORROW EVENING PICKING UP TO THE 8-12KT

RANGE.

EXPECT RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW...TO DEVELOP THURSDAY

AFTERNOON WITH CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO FALL QUICKLY TO MVFR AND

EVENTUALLY IFR AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE AND COOL. WHILE CANNOT RULE

OUT SOME SNOW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT

CHANGE OVER TO ALL WET AND POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER

DARK THURSDAY WHICH WOULD COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGER FORCING AND

MORE SUBSTANTIAL DYNAMIC COOLING. POTENTIAL EXISTS NOT ONLY FOR

HEAVY SNOW BUT POSSIBLY EVEN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY

SNOW THURSDAY EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. FOR NOW THERE IS

ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO JUST GO WITH PROB30 FOR 1/2SM MODERATE SNOW

BUT AS CONFIDENCE GROWS LATER TAFS MAY END UP BEING EVEN MORE

PESSIMISTIC.

IZZI

luv

[A-L-E-K]

probably not all snow here but super wet run