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All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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WestMichigan

WestMichigan

Posted
Posted

You have to love GRR.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES SHOULD BE EASY TO DO WITH THIS

SET UP.

I WOULD HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS EVENT EXPECT FOR

THE ISSUE OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY. I WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT

CONSIDER DOING JUST THAT.

As a followup, here is my zone forecast.

Thursday Night...Snow. Snow accumulation 5 to 7 inches. Lows in the upper 20s. Temperature steady or slowly rising after midnight. East winds around 10 mph becoming southwest late at night...then becoming west toward daybreak. Chance of snow 100 percent.

They are confident enough to put it in the forecast, but not issue a watch. Interesting...

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weatherpsycho

weatherpsycho

Posted
Posted

I think DTX jumped the gun IMO. I would have waited at least until the 0Z run tonight. It is still over 24 hours away from starting and the way the models have been this winter would drive me to the conservative side. Oh well, I guess it really doesn't matter as it is just a Watch. Personally my excitement is very tempered/low regarding this event being several hours away.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

I think DTX jumped the gun IMO. I would have waited at least until the 0Z run tonight. It is still over 24 hours away from starting and the way the models have been this winter would drive me to the conservative side. Oh well, I guess it really doesn't matter as it is just a Watch. Personally my excitement is very tempered/low regarding this event being several hours away.

You said it there yourself...it is just a watch. It is being used exactly as it is supposed to be since the word needs to get out to the public. Can't just sit on your hands and unleash a warning as the event is about to occur.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

I think DTX jumped the gun IMO. I would have waited at least until the 0Z run tonight. It is still over 24 hours away from starting and the way the models have been this winter would drive me to the conservative side. Oh well, I guess it really doesn't matter as it is just a Watch. Personally my excitement is very tempered/low regarding this event being several hours away.

I would agree if it was a warning, but it is a watch as you say, and it could be downgraded. The thing is we haven't even sniffed an event of this magnitude all winter so you also don't want people to be caught off guard either.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

Not saying what the final GFS solution will do, but the 18Z already initializes both a stronger 500 disturbance and a more curved 300 hpa jet.

Amount of mass scale divergence along that curving jet streak is awesome...quite a bit of mesoscale banding aloft. Secksy.

Very nice satellite image sir :)

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted

Just had a chance to look over the 18z NAM. Easily the most snow crazy run for YYZ I've seen for this storm thus far. Even beats out that 12z EURO run from 2 or 3 days ago.

Approx. 0.90" of QPF. All snow. Going to go print out that bufkit profile and frame it. Only going downhill from here.

You'd best do that because the 18z GFS is depicting rain for Windsor, Toronto and Niagara now. This storm is slipping away from us. Can't say I'm surprised.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

You'd best do that because the 18z GFS is depicting rain for Windsor, Toronto and Niagara now. This storm is slipping away from us. Can't say I'm surprised.

Verbatim, there's snow to start. The biggest problem is that we'd slot with maybe some -DZ. But the 18z GFS is by far the furtherest NW with the track of the sfc low. Consensus takes the low through upstate NY. I'm not sure why you're certain the outlier model is for sure going to verify. Even the HPC is riding the more southerly EURO/UKIE.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

Verbatim, there's snow to start. The biggest problem is that we'd slot with maybe some -DZ. But the 18z GFS is by far the furtherest NW with the track of the sfc low. Consensus takes the low through upstate NY. I'm not sure why you're certain the outlier model is for sure going to verify. Even the HPC is riding the more southerly EURO/UKIE.

Yeah, at this point I would toss out the 18z GFS as being too far North.

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toronto blizzard

toronto blizzard

Posted
Posted

Verbatim, there's snow to start. The biggest problem is that we'd slot with maybe some -DZ. But the 18z GFS is by far the furtherest NW with the track of the sfc low. Consensus takes the low through upstate NY. I'm not sure why you're certain the outlier model is for sure going to verify. Even the HPC is riding the more southerly EURO/UKIE.

Agree. If the EURO was the farthest NW of the models then maybe it would happen

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

DAY 1...

...NRN PLAINS SE INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VLY...

NRN STREAM CLIPPER LIKE SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE FAR NRN

PLAINS BY LATE THU...

AND IN DOING SO WILL AMPLIFY THE LEE SIDE TROUGHING (MORE SRN

STREAM VORTICITY) ACROSS THE CENTRAL US OUT AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED

STRONG PAC JET AXIS. OVER TIME...

THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BECOME MORE IN PHASE (ESP BY DAYS

2/3)...HOWEVER...

IN THE SHORTER RANGE (DAY 1)...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO

SHOW DIFFERENCES IN BOTH THE MASS FIELDS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER

(PARTICULARLY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER QPF). HPC HAD

INITIALLY PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET...

WHICH NOTED MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY COMPARED TO THE OTHER

MODELS...WHILE ALSO CLOSER TO THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 12Z ECMWF

HAS ONLY SOLIDIFIED THIS THINKING...

AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE TWO DISTINCT MODEL CLUSTERS ON DAY 1. THE

GFS AND IN PARTICULAR THE NAM REMAIN FARTHEST N WITH THE SFC LOW

AND THUS PCPN FIELD THROUGH 00Z FRI... WHILE THE 12Z

ECMWF...UKMET...AND EVEN THE CMC ARE WELL CLUSTERED FARTHER SOUTH.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 18Z NAM ALSO SHIFTED FARTHER S WITH

THE HEAVIER QPF. THE UPSHOT...EXPECT AXIS OF MAXIMUM UPPER LVL

DIVERGENCE AND LOW-MID LVL DEFORMATION/FGEN TO BE MAXIMIZED N OF

THE SFC LOW TRACK...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A BROADENING REGION OF DEEP

ISENTROPIC ASCENT (TROWAL) WITH TIME PER THE 280-300K ANALYSIS

(TAPPING GULF MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD). GIVEN THE CHOICE OF

MODEL(S)...HPC FAVORED A SRN TRACK WITH RESPECT TO THE SWATH OF

HEAVIEST SNOWFALL...THOUGH BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE

SHORT-RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES...DID EXPAND AT LEAST

A LOW (10%) RISK WELL N INTO N DAKOTA AND SRN MN.

DAYS 2 AND 3...

...UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEW ENGLAND...

AFOREMENTIONED NRN/SRN STREAM TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY

PHASE FRI AND SAT...

WITH CYCLOGENESIS GETTING GOING ON SAT AS THE LEAD TROUGH (BROADER

SRN STREAM WAVE) REACHES THE ATLC COAST. AGAIN...FAVORED A

ECMWF/UKMET CLUSTER WITH THE MASS FIELDS AND SENSIBLE

WEATHER...WHICH AGAIN HAS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN FARTHER S

COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM/SREF CLUSTER. 24-HR PROBABILITIES OF 4-8+

INCHES OF SNOW WILL EXPAND WITH TIME...N OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW

TRACK...GIVEN THE DEEPENING UPPER SYSTEM...

INCREASED LOW-MID LVL FGEN...INCREASED GULF MSTR TRANSPORT

(STRONGER/DEEPER MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT) N TO NW INTO EXPANDING

CCB AND DEVELOPING TROWAL. GIVEN THE FVRBL (STRENGTHENING)

DYNAMICAL SETUP WITH TIME...AND EXPANDING/STRENGTHENING REGION OF

POTENTIAL VORTICITY PER THE ECMWF PV1.5 PROGS...PROBABILITIES

EXIST FOR A 4-8+ INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS SRN LWR ME ENE...NW 2/3 OF

NY...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. PROBABILITIES FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW

WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR NRN NEW ENGLAND (NRN ME).

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted

Verbatim, there's snow to start. The biggest problem is that we'd slot with maybe some -DZ. But the 18z GFS is by far the furtherest NW with the track of the sfc low. Consensus takes the low through upstate NY. I'm not sure why you're certain the outlier model is for sure going to verify. Even the HPC is riding the more southerly EURO/UKIE.

I think it's psychological. Expect the worst in the hope that the best will materialize. Also, this winter has sucked, so why would it change now?

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