Stebo Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I know it is the NAM but if this is close to the truth, this could be one hell of a quick hitter and any sort of warm BL issues will be overcome with intense precip rates. I will have to look at BUFKIT but I can imagine that there is probably some convective instability in the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 They have me 4-8" and 1-3" ... total it up = 5-11" Hopefully the mountains dont screw Macomb county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 They have me 4-8" and 1-3" ... ....you do know that adds up to 5-11" like he said, right? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 total it up = 5-11" Hopefully the mountains dont screw Macomb county ,,,, Mountains lmao.....Yes the Appalachians sure will effect Macomb Country no doubt about that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 ....you do know that adds up to 5-11" like he said, right? lol NO...I didn't know that... ROFL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 ALl this excitements should be ruined shortly by the 18z GFS model! LOLL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Meh, the 18z NAM is always garbage, as is the 18z GFS usually, so the 0z runs will rule the roost. I find it interesting the ECMWF ensembles closely match the 12z GFS, suggesting more of a S Wisconsin- C Lower Michigan event instead of N Illinois- S Lower Michigan event. NAM could be narrow on the snow band too. The NMM run at 12z was good for your area, and even N IL. I guess the 0z run will have the final word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 ,,,, Mountains lmao.....Yes the Appalachians sure will effect Macomb Country no doubt about that.. weather.com =slushy Inch NWS = 5-11" Underground = 5-8" Accu stupid alarm = 2.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 309 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012 ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-INZ001-002-222315- WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK- LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-LAKE IN-PORTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK... WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO... OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...GARY... VALPARAISO 309 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012 ...ACCUMLATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING... A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY EVENING. HOW FAST THIS TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TAKES PLACE IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS THAT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88 THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATION SOUTH TO INTERSTATE 80 IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 LOT will probably have to host some headline with the NAM/ECM/UKMET all showing a decent wintery event. Looks like they took the conservative route and went Special Weather Statement.... SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 309 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012 ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-INZ001-002-222315- WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK- LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-LAKE IN-PORTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK... WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO... OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...GARY... VALPARAISO 309 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012 ...ACCUMLATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING... A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY EVENING. HOW FAST THIS TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TAKES PLACE IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS THAT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88 THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATION SOUTH TO INTERSTATE 80 IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 NAM could be narrow on the snow band too. The NMM run at 12z was good for your area, and even N IL. I guess the 0z run will have the final word. the NMM is too wet 99% of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 weather.com =slushy Inch NWS = 5-11" Underground = 5-8" It always takes awhile for mainstream weather news to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 weather.com =slushy Inch NWS = 5-11" Underground = 5-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 i'm 100x more interested in the warm up into March...this thing will be an inch or two tops for IL/WI until you get well east. More ups and downs in this thread than a porno shoot. Tough one to forecast and get excited about with all the crap the models were pushing out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Looks like they took the conservative route and went Special Weather Statement.... Fair call and it will be easy to ramp up if 0z runs bolster some run to run consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 afternoon AFD from LOT BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING... ENOUGH COLDER AIR IS WRAPPING IN THAT THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD GO OVER TO ALL SNOW AND IT IS THIS TIME PERIOD...FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR AND IT MAY BE SEVERAL INCHES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS THURSDAY...DURING THE DAY...THAT THIS WILL BE A SOLID ADVISORY EVENT...AND MAINLY 3RD/4TH PERIODS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...2ND PERIOD PERHAPS NORTH...THUS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT AS NOTED...WILL ISSUE AN SPS SHORTLY. Edit: Since several other people beat me to it, I'll just cut it back to the important part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 GRR Not going with WSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 309 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012 ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-INZ001-002-222315- WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK- LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-LAKE IN-PORTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK... WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO... OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...GARY... VALPARAISO 309 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012 ...ACCUMLATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING... A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY EVENING. HOW FAST THIS TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TAKES PLACE IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS THAT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88 THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATION SOUTH TO INTERSTATE 80 IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. Sounds like they are thinking decent amounts. This SPS might mean that they're not issuing a watch yet though. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 It always takes awhile for mainstream weather news to catch up. Can't wait to watch Channel 7's coverage of death storm 2012! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Meh, the 18z NAM is always garbage, as is the 18z GFS usually, so the 0z runs will rule the roost. I find it interesting the ECMWF ensembles closely match the 12z GFS, suggesting more of a S Wisconsin- C Lower Michigan event instead of N Illinois- S Lower Michigan event. Making such a broad scale assessment of off hr runs is not a wise choice. While the NAM may be over-amped with precip totals, it isn't supposed to be taken verbatim. The 160 kt 300 hpa jet is already beginning to buckle across MT. Always need to be careful when dealing with low amplitude disturbances along the polar jet as amplification can happen quickly and unexpectedly with poorly handled low amplitude waves. Should be remembered that the off hr runs take in millions of observations including quite a bit of satellite data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Can't wait to watch Channel 7's coverage of death storm 2012! lol LOL!!!!!!!!! Chucks model calling for 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 You have to love GRR. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES SHOULD BE EASY TO DO WITH THIS SET UP. I WOULD HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS EVENT EXPECT FOR THE ISSUE OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY. I WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT CONSIDER DOING JUST THAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Revised watch for MKX: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 308 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012 ...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... .LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE OVERALL TREND TODAY HAS BEEN SOUTHWARD. LESS SNOW IS THUS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH...RESULTING IN A CANCELLATION OF THE WATCH FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE TIMING MAY BE LATER AS COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER. WIZ056-062>064-067>072-230515- /O.EXT.KMKX.WS.A.0003.120223T1600Z-120224T0800Z/ SAUK-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE- KENOSHA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARABOO...DODGEVILLE...MADISON... JEFFERSON...LAKE MILLS...DARLINGTON...MONROE...JANESVILLE... BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...KENOSHA 308 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...SNOW MOVING IN MID OR LATE THURSDAY MORNING...WINDING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 8 INCHES. * WINDS...EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH IN THE EVENING. * IMPACTS...THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...RESULTING IN LOW VISIBILITY AND SLICK...SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 You have to love GRR. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES SHOULD BE EASY TO DO WITH THIS SET UP. I WOULD HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS EVENT EXPECT FOR THE ISSUE OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY. I WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT CONSIDER DOING JUST THAT. Usually it's the other way around! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 More ups and downs in this thread than a porno shoot. Tough one to forecast and get excited about with all the crap the models were pushing out.. Yeah this is one reason why I am not overly excited yet because there is still a decent range of solutions. However the potential for someone to cash in big time with the FGEN band is very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 000 FXUS63 KDTX 222107 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 407 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012 && .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AS A STRONG JET ENTERS THE PACIFIC NW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LEADING TO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS GIVE QUITE THE SPECTRUM OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. THE NAM HAS THE NORTHERN MOST TRACK WHICH TAKES THE SFC LOW FROM MILWAUKEE TO FLINT. THIS TRACK IS WELL NORTH OF ALL OTHER SOLUTIONS THUS WILL BE DISREGARDED. THE GFS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ON A LINE FROM CHICAGO TO DETROIT...BUT STILL NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS. LEANING MUCH MORE TO THE UKMET/GEM REGIONAL AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH JUMPS BACK ON BOARD AFTER GOING AWRY AT 00Z. GENERAL TRACK WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND OH WITH INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM HEADS TO THE EAST COAST. THERE ARE MANY FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR THIS STORM TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF SE MI. FIRST OF ALL THE TIMING OF THE EVENT...WITH THE INITIAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MI AFTER 22Z THURSDAY. THE INITIAL PRECIP WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX UNTIL THE HEAVIER RATES MOVE IN CHANGING IT TO ALL SNOW. THIS INITIAL BAND WILL SWEEP NORTHWARD DROPPING A FEW QUICK INCHES AS WET BULBING SHOULD DROP TEMPS TO AROUND FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE THE 850MB FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT UP TO SAGINAW BEFORE THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. ON THAT NOTE...MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S...AND 850MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY EXCEEDING 3-4 G/KG WITH THE INITIAL BAND. QPF SHOULD REACH 0.4-0.5 INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER 12Z FRIDAY THE FRONT AND THETA E RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE ARE AS THE LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL THEN PIVOT THE DEFORMATION BAND THROUGH THE AREA. WHERE EXACTLY IT SET UPS IS NOT CERTAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT LOOKS LIKE LOCATIONS NORTH OF M59 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS. UPPER LEVELS DYNAMICS WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE AS WELL. JET STREAK WILL INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT PLACING US IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION. IN ADDITION WE WILL BE IN THE REGION OF MID LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE DRY SLOT WILL WORK INTO THE STATE...AND IF THIS HAPPENS HOW FAR THE WARM SECTOR WILL MAKE IT NORTH...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH 6 INCHES OR MORE BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL COME ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN MI. THIS WILL DRAW UP WARM AIR RESULTING IN A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 warm out but at least its not sunny and baking everthing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 More ups and downs in this thread than a porno shoot. Tough one to forecast and get excited about with all the crap the models were pushing out.. Just having fun following any storm with potential ...it's been pretty boring winter overall I'm going to milk this sucker for all it's worth even if I end up with 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Not saying what the final GFS solution will do, but the 18Z already initializes both a stronger 500 disturbance and a more curved 300 hpa jet. Amount of mass scale divergence along that curving jet streak is awesome...quite a bit of mesoscale banding aloft. Secksy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Just having fun following any storm with potential ...it's been pretty boring winter overall I'm going to milk this sucker for all it's worth even if I end up with 2" No doubt.. I haven't missed a model run in days even though they showed basically nothing for here. Its just been hard to show any excitement in the thread until now that the models are coming in to decent agreement for a nice hit for parts of mn/iowa/iilinois/ and mich. Seems though a lot of the events this w/e you want to call it season have started out looking pretty meh but have aged well closer to go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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