All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

[A-L-E-K]

looking through a few soundings, there is some CAPE within the column...along with nice omega.

so the TSSN potential is very real.

nice to hear, were going to need a period of intense action to avoid another incher.

[Ajdos]

With such intense snowfall rates possible, temps could easily plummet into the middle 20s and snow growth/rates would increase significantly..

[Geos]

NAM through 51 hours. ...wow there is a lot of people in here!

[Jonger]

Technically I'm really hoping for some deep snow in Cass County, snowmobile trails suck in SE Michigan. Looks pretty good out that way too.

[A-L-E-K]

will Detoilet see it's first 12"+ event in 50 years? (exaggeration but i know it has been a while)

[dmc76]

will Detoilet see it's first 12"+ event in 50 years? (exaggeration but i know it has been a while)

Lol

[Ajdos]

First watch of the season.....in effect...

000

WWUS43 KDTX 222037

WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

337 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012

...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT AND

FRIDAY...

.A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT

LAKES WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHEAST

MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN

AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO

ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL

ACCUMULATION TO REACH 6 INCHES OR MORE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST

MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXACT TRACK

OF THE LOW...WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY PERHAPS ALLOWING A

WINTRY MIX TO PERSIST LONGER FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE OHIO BORDER.

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-230930-

/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.A.0001.120224T0000Z-120224T1700Z/

MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-

LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-

LENAWEE-MONROE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...

SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...

PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...

ADRIAN...MONROE

337 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH

FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING

THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY

EVENING.

* SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THURSDAY NIGHT.

* POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE BY

FRIDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS...

* SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

* DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR

SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT

TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

* PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.

VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

&&

:clap:

[A-L-E-K]

LOT will probably have to host some headline with the NAM/ECM/UKMET all showing a decent wintery event.

[Jonger]

Waterloo State Park, Brighton Rec or West side of the state? IMBY=Where ever the jackpot is!

[Thundersnow12]

[Geos]

Maybe Toronto can finally get a decent snowfall over 6" again!

[A-L-E-K]

vv map

those are pretty hot, good luck finally getting the monkey off your back

[toronto blizzard]

Maybe Toronto can finally get a decent snowfall over 6" again!

I hope so. Latest NAM was a beauty

[Hoosier]

LOT will probably have to host some headline with the NAM/ECM/UKMET all showing a decent wintery event.

I agree.  If I had to make a call I'd go with 3-6" in about a 75 mile wide band mainly north of I-80, maybe some isolated higher amounts wherever banding persists.  The low level warmth going in is a slight concern but I think the overnight timing and good rates will help to minimize the loss.

[Thundersnow12]

those are pretty hot, good luck finally getting the monkey off your back

lol what?

[BowMeHunter]

NAM is getting there just a little fast it seems.

[A-L-E-K]

I agree. If I had to make a call I'd go with 3-6" in about a 75 mile wide band mainly north of I-80, maybe some isolated higher amounts wherever banding persists. The low level warmth going in is a slight concern but I think the overnight timing and good rates will help to minimize the loss.

It does look like wherever the snow falls will see a 4-5 hour window of mod/heavy snow and it should be able to accumulate without major issues during that period. I'm going to toss any minor qpf before then as too light to accumulate on the warm surfaces. This leaves .3-.4ish for ORD, so your 3-6 call sounds fair. Wildcards will be whether or not bl temps are being underdone and torch...and whether or not we see a period of gorrilla flakes associated with convection.

15z SREF obviously came south as well..and look like a textbook late season advisory level event for chicago.

[A-L-E-K]

lol what?

I thought you were yet to have thundersnow? I could be mistaken.

[dmc76]

First watch of the season.....in effect...

&&

:clap:

Not surprised. Potential is there especially 94 north. Good call DTX

[BowMeHunter]

Reading discussions, and talking with meteorologists in my department....the EURO should basically be ignored this time around. It just does not make sense with this weather pattern and has been far off as the storm emerged on the coast, sorry Chicago but 3-6" still looks like a good bet!

lol

[hm8]

DTX is biting, WSW for all of the CWA.

Catching up on the last page, for the first time all season, I got that little exited adrenaline feeling in my stomach

[Geos]

DTX pulled the trigger. GRR and LOT should now follow.

[Thundersnow12]

I thought you were yet to have thundersnow? I could be mistaken.

Oh yeah lol I didn't get any with the GHD blizzard but did with that winter convection event last Feb.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I hope so. Latest NAM was a beauty

Hopefully, but the NAM hasa habit of overdoing precip amounts. It hasn't scored a coup all winter.

[wisconsinwx]

Meh, the 18z NAM is always garbage, as is the 18z GFS usually, so the 0z runs will rule the roost. I find it interesting the ECMWF ensembles closely match the 12z GFS, suggesting more of a S Wisconsin- C Lower Michigan event instead of N Illinois- S Lower Michigan event.

[A-L-E-K]

Oh yeah lol I didn't get any with the GHD blizzard but did with that winter convection event last Feb.

that's what i was thinking of

[dmc76]

NWS has Northern Oakland county 5 to 11"

[A-L-E-K]

lol

someone had to do it

[Snowstorms]

Hmmm,,,,,starting to see some more consistency within the models. Still some issues as to how much qpf may fall but otherwise an agreement is starting to build upon the models. Tonights 0z and tomorrow's 12z runs are really important.

But the latest Nam was beautiful....6-8" for me....finally

[Ajdos]

NWS has Northern Oakland county 5 to 11"

They have me 4-8" and 1-3" ...