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All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching


wxhstn74

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  On 2/23/2012 at 5:43 PM, Alek said:

meh, 4" still sounds too high...just not feeling the big totals with this one...i'm trying to talk myself into it but the period of heavy snow looks too brief and i think the prolonged rain really kills things.

experience tells me if snows fast enough and hard enough that won't matter Heck, the last two mornings colder surfaces accumulated with 33 degree temps and light snow. Most important is changeover timing....always key in these set ups.

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  On 2/23/2012 at 5:58 PM, snowstormcanuck said:

Does it look like the sfc low is going to take a sharp left around CLE? Or is it more towards ERI/NW PA.

Hard to say, I just have the text data. Seems like the SLP center stays south of CLE and BUF by a pretty good margin though, based on what I can see.

Precip total for YYZ is only about .43" though.

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  On 2/23/2012 at 6:01 PM, baum001 said:

experience tells me if snows fast enough and hard enough that won't matter Heck, the last two mornings colder surfaces accumulated with 33 degree temps and light snow. Most important is changeover timing....always key in these set ups.

I'm not saying we're getting goose-egged, during peak it's going to stick...I just think that the peak will only account for maybe 50% of model qpf with the rest being plain rain or a sloppy mix.

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  On 2/23/2012 at 5:20 PM, AppsRunner said:

WTF am I supposed to do now... GFS shows nada, NAM shows roughly 3-6", RUC is so far from anything I want to shoot myself, and the ARW/NMM are all snow here. This is going to be a very painful event to watch.

If you're in Toledo, assume disappointment and then work from there.

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  On 2/23/2012 at 6:03 PM, AppsRunner said:

Hard to say, I just have the text data. Seems like the SLP center stays south of CLE and BUF by a pretty good margin though, based on what I can see.

Precip total for YYZ is only about .43" though.

Thanks for this. 0.43" is aok with me, assuming it's all snow.

Toledo gets blitzed next time around. :)

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  On 2/23/2012 at 6:04 PM, Alek said:

I'm not saying we're getting goose-egged, during peak it's going to stick...I just think that the peak will only account for maybe 50% of model qpf with the rest being plain rain or a sloppy mix.

This is a good rule to go with considering most people will get a few more hours of rain/non-accumulating frozen precip than what the models are showing. This has been the theme this year in retrospect.

I think even southern Wisconsin will see a fair share of non-accumulating wet stuff, and we're on the northern side of this event.

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  On 2/23/2012 at 6:07 PM, turtlehurricane said:

This is a good rule to go with considering most people will get a few more hours of rain/non-accumulating frozen precip than what the models are showing. This has been the theme this year in retrospect.

I think even southern Wisconsin will see a fair share of non-accumulating wet stuff, and we're on the northern side of this event.

HRRR keeps pretty much the whole region rain or mixing through 1z

ptyp_sfc_f10.png

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12z ECMWF

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Very light mix here with a temp in the mid 30s(boy, if only it was 32 instead). 12z Euro is now more robust with the deformation zone moving through here later. However, this run doesn't have the precip changing to accumulating snow until after 03z. If it can switch over by 00z this Euro run has about 0.4" qpf still to fall.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out. The local mets are still poo-poo'ing this thing, wondering why the nws has issued any advisories at all.

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