All I'm sayin'...Is give mom nature a chance - LOL. Storm potential of 2/23-24 Bears Watching

[wxhstn74]

Models are trying to converge of some sort of storm over the Eastern Lakes Thu night/Friday 2/23/24 (just a day earlier than the big one on 2/25/1965, and an analogue year ;-)). I know...I know don't say it...but after this winter, there isn't much time left.

Euro as of Mon 12z exhibits a classic snowstorm path from Oklahoma to NE Ohio. Check out loop. GFS continues to trend better in the Eastern Lakes also. Big question is obviously are they converging toward the right solution and...how cold will the lower layers of the atmosphere be for the rain to snow change Thu - Thu night into Fri

12z Mon Euro

http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html

[hm8]

I say we use this thread for the 24th storm and ignore the other one here.... if nothing else because of Mr. Deedler's last storm thread that stayed open turned out relatively nicely

[wxhstn74]

Thanks, I wondered if anyone noticed. In any event, I do like the Eastern Lakes territory for better than expected storms. Our last Arctic blast bore that out along with several of the past winters. And besides..it's not THAT far out......

[cyclone77]

Models are trying to converge of some sort of storm over the Eastern Lakes Thu night/Friday 2/23/24 (just a day earlier than the big one on 2/25/1965, and an analogue year ;-)). I know...I know don't say it...but after this winter, there isn't much time left.

Euro as of Mon 12z exhibits a classic snowstorm path from Oklahoma to NE Ohio. Check out loop. GFS continues to trend better in the Eastern Lakes also. Big question is obviously are they converging toward the right solution and...how cold will the lower layers of the atmosphere be for the rain to snow change Thu - Thu night into Fri

12z Mon Euro

http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html

Ahh it's nice to see impressive cyclogenesis in the sub 120hr range for a change. Hope this works out for you guys!

[michsnowfreak]

Thanks, I wondered if anyone noticed. In any event, I do like the Eastern Lakes territory for better than expected storms. Our last Arctic blast bore that out along with several of the past winters. And besides..it's not THAT far out......

One of the few problems we havent had this winter is underperforming snows. Several of our minor snowfalls DID overperform, none moreso than the arctic front. So IF we can ever get a storm to spin up, that would be a good sign.

[Jonger]

One of the few problems we havent had this winter is underperforming snows. Several of our minor snowfalls DID overperform, none moreso than the arctic front. So IF we can ever get a storm to spin up, that would be a good sign.

True. Most of the proged events over achieved...

Btw... I rode 750 miles in the UP.. snow depth maxed around 3 feet. Even after the warmth there was snow mushrooming on peoples roofs.

[Jonger]

The only problem Josh is that all deepest snow is only accessible on snowmobile... Most roads aren't open in the high terrain and best depth within walking distance was around 12 inches. Maybe NW of Marquette you could walk 5 miles down a fire trail.

[Jonger]

20 inches here.... 30+ at the top. This was only 1000 ft... Obviously the top is just shy of 2000

[hm8]

One of the few problems we havent had this winter is underperforming snows. Several of our minor snowfalls DID overperform, none moreso than the arctic front. So IF we can ever get a storm to spin up, that would be a good sign.

Eh...tough to say that when our events haven't evenr eally had the CHANCE to underpreform. I mean, when the majority of snow forecasts have been in the 2-4" range, the only way that underperforms is with an inch, and honestly few will complain if they get 1" instead of 2. I mean, they'll complain about the winter overall but not about missing out on an inch

[OHweather]

This is my blog post from this evening, but will post it here as well...I tried to use general public friendly terminology when possible.

A very dynamic weather pattern is developing off the west coast of N. American, with a ridge off the coast causing a very active polar (blue) jet stream to ride over the ridge and dive southeast into the Rockies. As one can see above, there are multiple mid to upper level storms embedded within the polar jet stream, and these will move into the US over the coming days. Farther south, a feed of moisture extends from the tropics into Mexico and the Gulf Coast States.

As the ridging off the west coast continues to build in the coming days, storms will gradually move farther south, and may eventually tap the moisture feed and produce widespread areas of heavier precipitation.

As we look ahead to Thursday, it is evident that ridging off the west coast of the US extends north into Alaska, with energy dropping into the Rockies and trying to spread east. In addition, a moist piece of subtropical jet stream energy, seen on the above image by the blue shades over south Texas and northern Mexico, is advancing to the east-northeast, and is coming dangerously close to interacting with the trough developing over the Plain states. In the arctic, some weak ridging has developed over extreme northwestern Canada, indicating a neutral AO, however an upper level low is expected to remain in place over Greenland, keeping the NAO positive. This supports southeast ridging, and will make it hard for the pattern to slow down and amplify.

As for what happens next, we have many solutions being shown…the 12z European model (ECMWF) and to some extent its ensembles show a clean phase between the moist subtropical energy and the polar jet energy diving in from the northwest Thursday into Friday, resulting in a deep low pressure developing over the Ohio Valley and riding into the eastern Great Lakes by Friday morning:

The Euro continues to bring a deep storm into eastern Canada, and actually shows what would be close to a blizzard over a good portion of southeastern Canada Friday into Saturday:

Today’s run of the ECMWF is actually much deeper and farther west with this potential Thursday-Saturday storm than yesterday’s run, which I declared to be unlikely in my blog post last night.

The GFS and its ensembles continue to play a game of cat and mouse…yesterday afternoon’s (12z) run of the GFS and its ensembles almost unanimously disagreed with the amped up ECM solution for this storm…then the 0z run came around, and the GFS ensembles had several members jump to the amplified European model solution:

Several members showed a very wound up low tracking through the eastern Great Lakes or New England/Southeast Canada with an area of accumulating snows and high winds to the west of the low track.

Then, this afternoon’s 12z runs of the GFS ensembles had several members, at least half, develop a very strong area of low pressure with heavy snow and wind somewhere between the eastern Great Lakes and the Northeastern Seaboard.

This evening’s 18z run of the GFS ensembles, shown above, backed off the deep low cutting well west of the east coast idea some, but several members still have the deep storm tracking well west of the east coast.

So, what exactly determines if we see a deep storm develop Thursday into Friday and where it tracks?

Essentially, it has to do with if the trough developing over the central US can phase with the piece of moist subtropical jet-stream energy moving across the Deep South before the energy slides off the east coast.

The 12z Euro (which showed a deep storm bombing over the eastern Lakes) when compared to the 18z GFS (which did not show a deep storm bombing over the eastern lakes) valid at 12z Thursday, about one day before any deep storm would really bomb out, shows differences already. The GFS is a bit flatter with the polar jet across the US and is a bit faster with the polar jet energy. In addition, the Euro is bringing the cutoff energy east a bit faster than the GFS.

When rolled forward 24 hours, the Euro shows a well timed phase between a polar branch shortwave that digs down into the deep south and a piece of cutoff energy that moves east at just the right time, while the GFS is more zonal with the polar branch of the jet stream and is now showing the subtropical jet shortwave too far southeast to fully phase west of the Apps, resulting in a much weaker storm system.

The question becomes, which solution is more likely, phased or unphased? The trend this season has certainly been for the unphased solution to win out more times than not, and given the lack of true blocking in the current pattern, a well timed phase would need to occur for the more amped up solution to play out. Given this, I will continue to slightly favor the more weak/fast solution to play out, however model trends over the past 24 hours have been strong and the Euro has led the way thus far, so chances for a snowstorm from the eastern Lakes east in Upstate NY, New England, southern Ontario and southern/eastern Quebec have increased for Thursday night into Friday and Saturday.

What to watch in relation to this storm threat:

1. Does the subtropical jet energy trend weaker or stronger? A weaker piece of energy may mean a weaker storm.

2. Does the subtropical jet energy trend faster or slower? A slower solution might get left behind by the polar branch shortwave, while a faster one may mean phasing does not occur until the system is off the east coast.

3. Does the polar jet trend more zonal? This makes a phased solution less likely. A more amplified polar jet would make the amped up solution more likely.

[snowstormcanuck]

This is my blog post from this evening, but will post it here as well...I tried to use general public friendly terminology when possible.

A very dynamic weather pattern is developing off the west coast of N. American, with a ridge off the coast causing a very active polar (blue) jet stream to ride over the ridge and dive southeast into the Rockies. As one can see above, there are multiple mid to upper level storms embedded within the polar jet stream, and these will move into the US over the coming days. Farther south, a feed of moisture extends from the tropics into Mexico and the Gulf Coast States.

As the ridging off the west coast continues to build in the coming days, storms will gradually move farther south, and may eventually tap the moisture feed and produce widespread areas of heavier precipitation.

As we look ahead to Thursday, it is evident that ridging off the west coast of the US extends north into Alaska, with energy dropping into the Rockies and trying to spread east. In addition, a moist piece of subtropical jet stream energy, seen on the above image by the blue shades over south Texas and northern Mexico, is advancing to the east-northeast, and is coming dangerously close to interacting with the trough developing over the Plain states. In the arctic, some weak ridging has developed over extreme northwestern Canada, indicating a neutral AO, however an upper level low is expected to remain in place over Greenland, keeping the NAO positive. This supports southeast ridging, and will make it hard for the pattern to slow down and amplify.

As for what happens next, we have many solutions being shown…the 12z European model (ECMWF) and to some extent its ensembles show a clean phase between the moist subtropical energy and the polar jet energy diving in from the northwest Thursday into Friday, resulting in a deep low pressure developing over the Ohio Valley and riding into the eastern Great Lakes by Friday morning:

The Euro continues to bring a deep storm into eastern Canada, and actually shows what would be close to a blizzard over a good portion of southeastern Canada Friday into Saturday:

Today’s run of the ECMWF is actually much deeper and farther west with this potential Thursday-Saturday storm than yesterday’s run, which I declared to be unlikely in my blog post last night.

The GFS and its ensembles continue to play a game of cat and mouse…yesterday afternoon’s (12z) run of the GFS and its ensembles almost unanimously disagreed with the amped up ECM solution for this storm…then the 0z run came around, and the GFS ensembles had several members jump to the amplified European model solution:

Several members showed a very wound up low tracking through the eastern Great Lakes or New England/Southeast Canada with an area of accumulating snows and high winds to the west of the low track.

Then, this afternoon’s 12z runs of the GFS ensembles had several members, at least half, develop a very strong area of low pressure with heavy snow and wind somewhere between the eastern Great Lakes and the Northeastern Seaboard.

This evening’s 18z run of the GFS ensembles, shown above, backed off the deep low cutting well west of the east coast idea some, but several members still have the deep storm tracking well west of the east coast.

So, what exactly determines if we see a deep storm develop Thursday into Friday and where it tracks?

Essentially, it has to do with if the trough developing over the central US can phase with the piece of moist subtropical jet-stream energy moving across the Deep South before the energy slides off the east coast.

The 12z Euro (which showed a deep storm bombing over the eastern Lakes) when compared to the 18z GFS (which did not show a deep storm bombing over the eastern lakes) valid at 12z Thursday, about one day before any deep storm would really bomb out, shows differences already. The GFS is a bit flatter with the polar jet across the US and is a bit faster with the polar jet energy. In addition, the Euro is bringing the cutoff energy east a bit faster than the GFS.

When rolled forward 24 hours, the Euro shows a well timed phase between a polar branch shortwave that digs down into the deep south and a piece of cutoff energy that moves east at just the right time, while the GFS is more zonal with the polar branch of the jet stream and is now showing the subtropical jet shortwave too far southeast to fully phase west of the Apps, resulting in a much weaker storm system.

The question becomes, which solution is more likely, phased or unphased? The trend this season has certainly been for the unphased solution to win out more times than not, and given the lack of true blocking in the current pattern, a well timed phase would need to occur for the more amped up solution to play out. Given this, I will continue to slightly favor the more weak/fast solution to play out, however model trends over the past 24 hours have been strong and the Euro has led the way thus far, so chances for a snowstorm from the eastern Lakes east in Upstate NY, New England, southern Ontario and southern/eastern Quebec have increased for Thursday night into Friday and Saturday.

What to watch in relation to this storm threat:

1. Does the subtropical jet energy trend weaker or stronger? A weaker piece of energy may mean a weaker storm.

2. Does the subtropical jet energy trend faster or slower? A slower solution might get left behind by the polar branch shortwave, while a faster one may mean phasing does not occur until the system is off the east coast.

3. Does the polar jet trend more zonal? This makes a phased solution less likely. A more amplified polar jet would make the amped up solution more likely.

Great analysis. Thanks for going deconstructing the scenarios for us.

Given the way this season has gone I'm inclided to buy the 18z GFS. But as you said, that run aside, the trend as been towards more phasing.

[Thundersnow12]

Excellent discussion sir

[WestMichigan]

Very good writeup, keep it coming as this storm nears.

[Powerball]

I would like to see the trough set up further west and dig further to the south, but yeah, you get what you can get in this season..

[OHweather]

Thanks all...either way I probably won't want to commit to a solution until at the very earliest the 0z runs Wednesday if not the 12z runs when it appears the polar branch shortwave that will bring (or not) the goods will be sampled.

[Ajdos]

This is my blog post from this evening, but will post it here as well...I tried to use general public friendly terminology when possible.

A very dynamic weather pattern is developing off the west coast of N. American, with a ridge off the coast causing a very active polar (blue) jet stream to ride over the ridge and dive southeast into the Rockies. As one can see above, there are multiple mid to upper level storms embedded within the polar jet stream, and these will move into the US over the coming days. Farther south, a feed of moisture extends from the tropics into Mexico and the Gulf Coast States.

As the ridging off the west coast continues to build in the coming days, storms will gradually move farther south, and may eventually tap the moisture feed and produce widespread areas of heavier precipitation.

As we look ahead to Thursday, it is evident that ridging off the west coast of the US extends north into Alaska, with energy dropping into the Rockies and trying to spread east. In addition, a moist piece of subtropical jet stream energy, seen on the above image by the blue shades over south Texas and northern Mexico, is advancing to the east-northeast, and is coming dangerously close to interacting with the trough developing over the Plain states. In the arctic, some weak ridging has developed over extreme northwestern Canada, indicating a neutral AO, however an upper level low is expected to remain in place over Greenland, keeping the NAO positive. This supports southeast ridging, and will make it hard for the pattern to slow down and amplify.

As for what happens next, we have many solutions being shown…the 12z European model (ECMWF) and to some extent its ensembles show a clean phase between the moist subtropical energy and the polar jet energy diving in from the northwest Thursday into Friday, resulting in a deep low pressure developing over the Ohio Valley and riding into the eastern Great Lakes by Friday morning:

The Euro continues to bring a deep storm into eastern Canada, and actually shows what would be close to a blizzard over a good portion of southeastern Canada Friday into Saturday:

Today’s run of the ECMWF is actually much deeper and farther west with this potential Thursday-Saturday storm than yesterday’s run, which I declared to be unlikely in my blog post last night.

The GFS and its ensembles continue to play a game of cat and mouse…yesterday afternoon’s (12z) run of the GFS and its ensembles almost unanimously disagreed with the amped up ECM solution for this storm…then the 0z run came around, and the GFS ensembles had several members jump to the amplified European model solution:

Several members showed a very wound up low tracking through the eastern Great Lakes or New England/Southeast Canada with an area of accumulating snows and high winds to the west of the low track.

Then, this afternoon’s 12z runs of the GFS ensembles had several members, at least half, develop a very strong area of low pressure with heavy snow and wind somewhere between the eastern Great Lakes and the Northeastern Seaboard.

This evening’s 18z run of the GFS ensembles, shown above, backed off the deep low cutting well west of the east coast idea some, but several members still have the deep storm tracking well west of the east coast.

So, what exactly determines if we see a deep storm develop Thursday into Friday and where it tracks?

Essentially, it has to do with if the trough developing over the central US can phase with the piece of moist subtropical jet-stream energy moving across the Deep South before the energy slides off the east coast.

The 12z Euro (which showed a deep storm bombing over the eastern Lakes) when compared to the 18z GFS (which did not show a deep storm bombing over the eastern lakes) valid at 12z Thursday, about one day before any deep storm would really bomb out, shows differences already. The GFS is a bit flatter with the polar jet across the US and is a bit faster with the polar jet energy. In addition, the Euro is bringing the cutoff energy east a bit faster than the GFS.

When rolled forward 24 hours, the Euro shows a well timed phase between a polar branch shortwave that digs down into the deep south and a piece of cutoff energy that moves east at just the right time, while the GFS is more zonal with the polar branch of the jet stream and is now showing the subtropical jet shortwave too far southeast to fully phase west of the Apps, resulting in a much weaker storm system.

The question becomes, which solution is more likely, phased or unphased? The trend this season has certainly been for the unphased solution to win out more times than not, and given the lack of true blocking in the current pattern, a well timed phase would need to occur for the more amped up solution to play out. Given this, I will continue to slightly favor the more weak/fast solution to play out, however model trends over the past 24 hours have been strong and the Euro has led the way thus far, so chances for a snowstorm from the eastern Lakes east in Upstate NY, New England, southern Ontario and southern/eastern Quebec have increased for Thursday night into Friday and Saturday.

What to watch in relation to this storm threat:

1. Does the subtropical jet energy trend weaker or stronger? A weaker piece of energy may mean a weaker storm.

2. Does the subtropical jet energy trend faster or slower? A slower solution might get left behind by the polar branch shortwave, while a faster one may mean phasing does not occur until the system is off the east coast.

3. Does the polar jet trend more zonal? This makes a phased solution less likely. A more amplified polar jet would make the amped up solution more likely.

Nice...

[michsnowfreak]

The only problem Josh is that all deepest snow is only accessible on snowmobile... Most roads aren't open in the high terrain and best depth within walking distance was around 12 inches. Maybe NW of Marquette you could walk 5 miles down a fire trail.

Going up there first weekend of March, cannot WAIT. Havent been up there in 2 years, cancelled last year since we had deeper snowpack than them (ohhh to have THAT "problem" again). They look to be adding snow, and possibly a lot, in the next few weeks...so it looks like my gamble of waiting til March may have paid off. Its still a bad year for them, but better than nothing. From barren Minnesota to the snowless hills of New Hampshire, the fact that you still need to measure snowpack with a yardstick in the U.P. is a win in my book this year.

[michsnowfreak]

Eh...tough to say that when our events haven't evenr eally had the CHANCE to underpreform. I mean, when the majority of snow forecasts have been in the 2-4" range, the only way that underperforms is with an inch, and honestly few will complain if they get 1" instead of 2. I mean, they'll complain about the winter overall but not about missing out on an inch

Totally agree theres been nothing to really work with, but snow is snow, and most forecasted snow did meet or exceed forecasts this winter. Dec 5th we were forecast nothing measurable the day before, then forecast day of around an inch, end up with nearly 3". Jan 14th, forecast 1", end up closer to 2". Feb 10/11 forecast 1-2", get almost 5". There have been no events that really busted in a bad way, only one (Jan 20/21) fell short of expectations and that was barely (got 2-3", forecast 3-4").

[michsnowfreak]

Excellent discussion sir

Agree. Excellent discussion!

[Ajdos]

Totally agree theres been nothing to really work with, but snow is snow, and most forecasted snow did meet or exceed forecasts this winter. Dec 5th we were forecast nothing measurable the day before, then forecast day of around an inch, end up with nearly 3". Jan 14th, forecast 1", end up closer to 2". Feb 10/11 forecast 1-2", get almost 5". There have been no events that really busted in a bad way, only one (Jan 20/21) fell short of expectations and that was barely (got 2-3", forecast 3-4").

Still waiting for my first WW HEADLINE.

[snowstormcanuck]

Looks like the 18z GFS was an aberration. 0z GFS has a slower, more amplified trough, although still nowhere near the same type of sfc development the 12z EURO has.

That kicker coming into the BC coast around 84 hours is going to be determinative, just like a similar feature with this past weekend's storm was. EURO is much weaker and strung out with it, which allows for more amplification. Even the 0z GFS has this as a vigorous upper level system, which would tend to keep the flow more progressive, reducing the chance for a big storm.

[michsnowfreak]

Still waiting for my first WW HEADLINE.

Eh, that stuffs not important to me. Just give me a good storm dammit, I dont care what the NWS issues LOL. You had an advisory criteria event (Feb 10) where nothing was issued...which is better than having an advisory issued and only getting 1-2" of snow

[cyclone77]

Eh, that stuffs not important to me. Just give me a good storm dammit, I dont care what the NWS issues LOL. You had an advisory criteria event (Feb 10) where nothing was issued...which is better than having an advisory issued and only getting 1-2" of snow

100% agree. Have been under 2 winter storm warnings this winter lol.

[Geos]

Looks like some over-running precipitation advertized by the GFS on the 23rd for the lower lakes.

[snowstormcanuck]

0z GGEM still disjointed garbage.

[snowstormcanuck]

A winter 2011-12 first. I've stayed up for the 0z EURO!

[snowstormcanuck]

Appears as though I may be rewarded. 0z EURO has a 994 in the MO bootheel at 72. H5 looks like a much more fulsome phase, compared to the GFS which tends to shear the northern component. Looks like the storm would deepend fairly rapidly as it progresses through the OV beyond 72.

0z UKIE at 72 almost looks identical to the EURO.

[baroclinic_instability]

ECMWF at 72 hrs still looks like it is going to go ballistic across the far NE US. Granted...I am not a sure what we are looking at here for the Lakes.

[snowstormcanuck]

986 over s-c PA at 96. That's actually a bit further south than I expected. I can't see between 72 and 96 but it appears the storm moves ENE. Can't see QPF either but H7 RH looks fairly juicy (and decent spatial coverage).

[baroclinic_instability]

986 over s-c PA at 96. That's actually a bit further south than I expected. I can't see between 72 and 96 but it appears the storm moves ENE. Can't see QPF either but H7 RH looks fairly juicy (and decent spatial coverage).

I see what you are tracking now...

hr 96 has all the hallmarks of a bomb. Looks to go nuclear shortly after.