Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

[dryslot]

it's slower, but it still shows a major phase/bomb

It is slower, But its also east of 0z

[Tropopause_Fold]

it's slower, but it still shows a major phase/bomb

not nearly as deep though

[dryslot]

Big time Ice signal for Northern Maine

[forkyfork]

not nearly as deep though

the system is less consolidated... shocked

[Tropopause_Fold]

the system is less consolidated... shocked

can't say i was expecting ~960mb near caribou

[Tropopause_Fold]

low still bombs but it takes significantly longer to do so

[dryslot]

From what i hear or have seen, And i may be wrong, The Euro is about the only model that is this far west

[forkyfork]

can't say i was expecting ~960mb near caribou

neither was i... hopefully i still get the rains

[forkyfork]

low still bombs but it takes significantly longer to do so

the progressive pattern is killing us

[Ginx snewx]

the progressive pattern is killing us

No blocking since Halloween, possibly unprecedented to run an entire winter without one episode of a sustained block?

[N. OF PIKE]

if it wasn't bad enough for snow lovers

we got a parade of cutters to "look forward to" so that the few mountains with good sking can get iced up and lose snow ....awesome awesome pattern change yet again.

hopefully we manage a T of snow out of 3 cutters and the weather isn't so boring anymore...meanwhile SR,Stowe, And the Loaf get piss'd on by mother nature. yes i'm venting.sorry ....but it is a nice day outsde now.....

[Ginx snewx]

if it wasn't bad enough for snow lovers

we got a parade of cutters to "look forward to" so that the few mountains with good sking can get iced up and lose snow ....awesome awesome pattern change yet again.

hopefully we manage a T of snow out of 3 cutters and the weather isn't so boring anymore...meanwhile SR,Stowe, And the Loaf get piss'd on by mother nature. yes i'm venting.sorry ....but it is a nice day outsde now.....

I wouldn't count out NNE yet bro.

[weathafella]

I wouldn't count out NNE yet bro.

NNE is home to a few moose, dryslot, and the tooter. All lovable but who cares....

[icebreaker5221]

Baring in mind that the Euro is a western / amplified outlier, if the Euro verifies, isn't the greatest (albeit much more localized) wind threat actually in the warm sector? 85+ kts at 850 mb would certainly mix some damaging winds to the surface over the cape.

I was surprised to see that the discussion here only mentions the CAA winds after the storm passes.

[Ginx snewx]

NNE is home to a few moose, dryslot, and the tooter. All lovable but who cares....

My playground for the month of March, heavily invested I care.

[Ginx snewx]

Baring in mind that the Euro is a western / amplified outlier, if the Euro verifies, isn't the greatest (albeit much more localized) wind threat actually in the warm sector? 85+ kts at 850 mb would certainly mix some damaging winds to the surface over the cape.

I was surprised to see that the discussion here only mentions the CAA winds after the storm passes.

Yesterday I was looking at that, not having 6 hour winds handicapped me but for sureACK,CC Weather and Messenger might get blasted. What's the inversion like?

[weathafella]

My playground for the month of March, heavily invested I care.

Good luck. I'll unfortunately be rooting for 60s and 70s. I almost am now but it's alot to ask even in this winter. By 3/10, all bets are off. Big heat incoming.

[Ginx snewx]

There was a storm last year where 850 winds were 100+ knots but winds ended up near 55 in gusts. This year with SSTs 5-6 degrees higher and warmer air maybe less of an inversion? Phil mobile Kestrel time?

[Ginx snewx]

A trop fold event would be nice.

[Typhoon Tip]

Baring in mind that the Euro is a western / amplified outlier, if the Euro verifies, isn't the greatest (albeit much more localized) wind threat actually in the warm sector? 85+ kts at 850 mb would certainly mix some damaging winds to the surface over the cape.

I was surprised to see that the discussion here only mentions the CAA winds after the storm passes.

maybe not at this time of year... The water is about as cold as it's going to get and with warm air riding over top that sets up a very steep llv inversion - tough to mix the wind down through that slab.

[icebreaker5221]

Yesterday I was looking at that, not having 6 hour winds handicapped me but for sureACK,CC Weather and Messenger might get blasted. What's the inversion like?

I don't have ECMWF forecast soundings nor surface wind, so I tried to pose the question speculatively for someone who might.

[Ginx snewx]

maybe not at this time of year... The water is about as cold as it's going to get and with warm air riding over top that sets up a very steep llv inversion - tough to mix the wind down through that slab.

I don't have ECMWF forecast soundings nor surface wind, so I tried to pose the question speculatively for someone who might.

It would be nice to see soundings before making any assumptions either way but potential shown by Euro is interesting.

[icebreaker5221]

maybe not at this time of year... The water is about as cold as it's going to get and with warm air riding over top that sets up a very steep llv inversion - tough to mix the wind down through that slab.

Yeah, good point. Just wanted to throw that out there to make sure it was at least being considered.

[Damage In Tolland]

March is an all out torch on the weeklies right thru week 4.

[Typhoon Tip]

It does seem like inch by inch there is an attempt to get this thing closer to the coast, but I am not sure it will make much of difference if folks are secretly coveting hope for snow. The air mass is rotted early spring garbage for this particular scenario.

[Typhoon Tip]

March is an all out torch on the weeklies right thru week 4.

I've been warning of this... Once we get passed these disappointing (for you winter fan) storms of the next 7 -10 days, forget the Euro weeklies - the entire American -based product teleconnector spread is saying 80F by March 10 ....

My guess though is that it will be 42F with NE drift and drizzle at ORH and 86F with nymphs offering sex at ALB

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, good point. Just wanted to throw that out there to make sure it was at least being considered.

It's a good point though - even with that inversion, a convective ribbon echo squall can punch a tongue or two to the surface and it would really really suck for a couple of roof tops and the errant fisherman asea should that happen.

But eh, lets get some f* model agreement - geez

[Typhoon Tip]

It would be nice to see soundings before making any assumptions either way but potential shown by Euro is interesting.

Yeah that's why I said maybe - as you say, the sounding should be interesting.

[Tom12309]

... nymphs offering sex at ALB

and that would be a pattern change...

[N. OF PIKE]

looks like i'll be heading to alb mar 10

no really what does this look like for stowe,vt this fri nite to mon day nite period

is this a potential rainer.....ice maker for them . or does this look less likely ....trying to make plans to use ski package rental and figuring out oddz.