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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Huge differences in the Euro/UKMET vs the other guidance types overnight... The Euro/U have a giant slug of powerful S/W dynamcis relaying off the Pacific through Washington/Oregan at 48 hours; if you compare to the other guidance they have this S/W feature but varioiusly weaker among them.

There are 2 ways to phase... 1, strong southern stream draws/induces a N stream impulse down in latitude by weakening the geopotential medium; 2, powerful N stream digs and captures/absorbs anything in its path. Not to digress, it has to do both with wave frequency, and wave translation timing together. If either of those two are not in accord, the flow has less harmonics and streams start deconstructing as opposed to constructing their wave interference..

Anyway, this appears to take the latter route to phasing in this Euro. The other guidance ... because the southern stream isn't overwhelmingly strong, and their respective S/W coming of the Pacific are less capable of "digging" - no or too little phase to matter.

Con for Euro: Seasonal trend = no phasing at least excuse imaginable. It is interetsing that the Euro is so proficient in both doing so, but overcoming that trend for this scenario - feels like an on purpose pump of the cosmic dildo ...but that's besides the point. (This non-winter reminds me of that creepy scene in Silence Of The Lambs: "It rubs the lotion on its skin. It does this whenever it is told")

...Well, that is not entirely true, the UKMET did in like fashion extend the torture onto a victim that has already endure unthinkable evil, by also imposing a stronger N stream; reasonably resembling the Euro. The gist of what these two do is cause a powerful system to spin up too quick, and with so lacking antecedent viscous air mass in the lower partial thickness' between the lower OV and NE regions, there's nothing to stop such an intense depiction from running west and right up our arse - hense the CD reference above. nyuk nyuk. (We're not writing for any dissertation efforts here...)

The GGEM has the stream intermingle but waits until the whole thing is scooting up into the Maritime. Interestingly, it even lags a little QPF back into crashing heights suggesting someone gets a little white despite the warm entry through the entire baroclinic evolution.

The GFS on the other hand is completely unable to see any stream interaction of significance though - a trend that started in earnest on the 18z run yesterday and appears to have held through 00z/06z as well. That may mean nothing more than the GFS pulling its usual routine of finding odd scenarios down the stretch. The 12z is rolling out now... It's another opportunity for the GFS to score a coup - will it? This model reminds me of a boxer losing the fight in the latter rounds, so he start randomly throwing out wild punches hoping to land one and get lucky.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Wow, this run is even more loony looking ...

It initializes the SW feature strongly ...finally, then magically it disappears between hours 84 and 96 trekking through old Mexico - poof style - with no apparent physical cause for its disappearance.

Then, it is soooo egregiously off the Euro run at this point that it drills the N stream to London over top - this is about as disparate I have ever seen between those too operational runs. This 12z Euro will be interesting. I did notice that it was slightly east of the 12z bomb depiction yesterday - still a bomb but perhaps slightly less threatening.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Its close even here, The Nam as well but i don't buy it with the Euro being so different and west

I think you'd be good for a couple inches of caking wet snow at 32-33F on the GFS. Its close but the column is pretty isothermal in the lowest few thousand feet and you'd probably get a good burst of omega with the WAA to keep you wet snow for a couple hours before going over to sleet or rain.

This winter even 2" of wet snow clinging to every little branch and twig is a sight to be seen.

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dryslot

dryslot

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I think you'd be good for a couple inches of caking wet snow at 32-33F on the GFS. Its close but the column is pretty isothermal in the lowest few thousand feet and you'd probably get a good burst of omega with the WAA to keep you wet snow for a couple hours before going over to sleet or rain.

This winter even 2" of wet snow clinging to every little branch and twig is a sight to be seen.

Not far off but may be a moot point in another hour

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