Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

[HoarfrostHubb]

Ginx mentioned before that lows have come in weaker all year

[CoastalWx]

Ginx mentioned before that lows have come in weaker all year

The euro may be too strong, but I could see a strong low north of Maine. Kevin is looking for 60kt winds.

[HoarfrostHubb]

The euro may be too strong, but I could see a strong low north of Maine. Kevin is looking for 60kt winds.

He could go up Mount Washington. Or Kahtadin

[tamarack]

Ginx mentioned before that lows have come in weaker all year

GYX said the same thing in their Sat morning (IIRC) AFD, something like "the theme for this winter is systems getting weaker as their arrival gets closer."

[adk]

He could go up Mount Washington. Or Kahtadin

If the Euro is righ, once on Mt. Wash. he would be blown from MTW to Kahtadin.

[dryslot]

He could go up Mount Washington. Or Kahtadin

Kahtadin would be a good spot..

[MaineJayhawk]

Wind ... meh. I'll expect gusts to 35.

[dryslot]

Wind ... meh. I'll expect gusts to 35.

They will be NBD here as well

[mahk_webstah]

0z euro took a pretty good shift east with the low center from 12z, Not enough down this way but would make for a pretty big snow bomb for the whites here

feeling more optimistic about my trip up to Montreal Fri-Sun.

[PWMan]

When in doubt this winter, go with the most benign outcome possible. I expect a few showers followed by a breezy day with gusts to 30, downsloping us into yet another mild day here on the CP.

[Wx4cast]

Here is my .02 on this event:

Plenty of teleconnections and model suites coming into some consensus/agreement on a potential widespread synoptic scale wind storm for NY and New England. Of the model suites the EC is the most intense followed by the UK. GGEM and GFS least intense. NAM ( 21-06z) is rapidly deepening the low >

Low looks to take the climatological favored track across the northern shore of LO towards QBC with deepening during Friday. Low track would tend to favor the output from GFS, GEFS and NAM vs EC (initially too far south) and GGEM (too far east) at this point in time. Deepening of the cyclone appears likely as phasing of northern and southern streams occurs late Friday through Saturday.

GEFS Anomalies indicate a -3 to -4 deviation on the surface pressure field across the eastern lakes and Ontario to NYS and New England.

Wind anomalies from the WEST +2 to +3 @ 850 hPa and and WSW +3 to some +4 @250 hpa.

Using CSTAR research on synoptic windstorms across the NEUS this end of the week storm fits patterns from this research to become a bit more confident in a potential major windstorm. There is also some forecast data that is similar to the Feb 17, 2006 windstorm that pummeled the region causing widespread long duration power outages and also brought a squall line of severe thunderstorms with some large hail and extremely high winds (gusted to over 90 mph in Saratoga Springs).

Here is the CSTAR link if anyone is interested: http://cstar.cestm.a...ect17/index.htm

and

http://cstar.cestm.a...06_preprint.pdf

BTW Tip Hysterical title to this thread...I now have to clean off the monitor as I spat my coffee all over it.

[dryslot]

feeling more optimistic about my trip up to Montreal Fri-Sun.

Mark, You may be in a decent spot there, Nam and GFS are not buying the Euro solution, But i am, It may be overdone some and will have to be watched, Someone up this way may see quite the snow storm, I would like my chances if i lived in the mtns or northern maine up towards vim toot...

[powderfreak]

The euro may be too strong, but I could see a strong low north of Maine. Kevin is looking for 60kt winds.

I'm starting to get a little pumped for snow if anything close to that happens. Climo favored location of deep low pressure for major upslope snow events is northern Maine.

I mean this is just pure weather porn with H7-H85 RH's 90%+, vertically stacked low northern ME, cyclonic moisture feed and strong NW winds. That's a 12"+ event from upslope alone right there... good snow growth likely with H85 temps in the -10C region.

[powderfreak]

They'll be getting upslope snow all the way to West Virginia with last night's 00z ECMWF.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I'm starting to get a little pumped for snow if anything close to that happens. Climo favored location of deep low pressure for major upslope snow events is northern Maine.

I mean this is just pure weather porn with H7-H85 RH's 90%+, vertically stacked low northern ME, cyclonic moisture feed and strong NW winds. That's a 12"+ event from upslope alone right there... good snow growth likely with H85 temps in the -10C region.

What happens if you get 2' at the top and 2" at the bottom? Will they shuffle some snow down as far as they can?

Be trip worthy next week if it happens.

[MBRI]

Stowe has been trip worthy all season.

[Tropopause_Fold]

interesting set-up late week. hopefully the euro has the right idea with this thing losing 25mb like that. kind of feel like the euro is one more tick east from ending up flatter and less robust like a lot of other products...but it's been pretty consistent overall.

[powderfreak]

What happens if you get 2' at the top and 2" at the bottom? Will they shuffle some snow down as far as they can?

Be trip worthy next week if it happens.

Well I think the ECM solution would give a good upslope snowfall from top to bottom. In those situations, the boundary layer at 1,500-2,000ft up here would cool just as fast as 3-4,000ft with that type of strong flow. The elevation dependent snowfall would be more front end I would think. The past 3 ECM solutions would bring significant snows even down into the village... I mean ripping NW wind with synoptic moisture and H85s of -10C... that's snowing to the valleys.

Personally I don't have much hope for the front end, but the 12z NAM (take this with a grain of salt) is indicating a good burst of snow or at least elevation snow on the front end. Extrapolating it there would be upslope on the backside.

The new NAM is intriguing up here and across the Whites and especially in ME up towards Sunday River, Sugarloaf, and Rangley.

Summits are definitely all snow to start with.

Even the SFC 2 meter temps are below freezing so that's borderline advisory front end snows across the north.

Then the warm gets pinched off... so the summits could probably hold onto snow for the duration in this situation. SFC would warm slowly but the dry slot comes in right as it goes above freezing... probably a snow to sleet to dryslot solution on the 12z NAM up this way across into ME.

[adk]

What happens if you get 2' at the top and 2" at the bottom?

The gapers will cry and cry and cry while PF and I get face shot after face shot.

Seriously PF- that 00z Euro is just an absurd upslope event. 12+ for sure and that's in like 12 hours. Even the GFS looks very good for upslope and it's the weakest of the models. Frankly, given the climo of the northern green spine, I don't care what the low does before it reaches us. I want it to get big, strong and vertically stacked RIGHT were it's depicted.

[Chrisrotary12]

976 mb low going over our heads.......definitely going to happen.

[CoastalWx]

interesting set-up late week. hopefully the euro has the right idea with this thing losing 25mb like that. kind of feel like the euro is one more tick east from ending up flatter and less robust like a lot of other products...but it's been pretty consistent overall.

Yeah agreed. I think the result is a little less ferocious than what it shows, but I would love for that to verify.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Wind ... meh. I'll expect gusts to 35.

We had gusts here to 31 yesterday (mph, not knots)

[HoarfrostHubb]

It is one thing to expect something to shift 50-100 miles, but many of us would benefit by a 250 mile shift

And that ain't happening. At least it might (yellow flag) might be interesting...

Interesting is all we can hope for this season

[dryslot]

We had gusts here to 31 yesterday (mph, not knots)

We had gust well into the 30's most of the day here yesterday

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah agreed. I think the result is a little less ferocious than what it shows, but I would love for that to verify.

if it comes in the same way today, i'll give the whole idea a bit more consideration.

euro would be pretty wild...but if it ends up like the rest of guidance...just a meh windy cool day.

[dryslot]

50-100 mile shift would work for a lot up here, Even the GFS and NAM would work with a couple more tweaks

[HoarfrostHubb]

Road trip to visit Vim Toot!

[Damage In Tolland]

Man if the Euro verified..all of us would be looking at 60-70 mph wind gusts. Hopefully Andy is right ain is foecast for a major damaging windstorm

[dryslot]

Don't give a fook about the wind unless there is snow with it.........

[Tropopause_Fold]

GFS is way deeper now...too far NE for it to matter too much for Sat but much stronger at the surface