Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

[Clinch Leatherwood]

RGEM just rips it up in NNE. Probably my favorite model aside of the Euro lately.

[weatherMA]

I'm not sure anyone should take those forecasts seriously. They swing dramatically and are generally unreliable.

But it represents their general thinking. BOX has ad advisory down to ORH but not south of there.

[Snow Bow]

Does anyone have the NOAA snowfall map for NH?

[adamrivers]

BOX's map is up:

Wow. Bigtime Valley screwage in effect.

[powderfreak]

This has been a rough winter for Kevin including mental breakdowns and large forecasting busts. Tough.

I have 1-3" for mby points north.

LOL you and Kevin are hilarious with the crap you give each other.

[N. OF PIKE]

going to crotched mtn tomm eve 5pm to 3am (midnite maddness) they may get a nice thump tomm eve

[dryslot]

Sounds kinky lol yeah I think many on the north country are in for atleast 4" at lower elevations with 6" a decent bet above 1,000'. Too bad I'm not there, naturally.

Home on break?

[CT Rain]

But it represents their general thinking. BOX has ad advisory down to ORH but not south of there.

The problem is that they try to be overly specific, don't make a big effort to maintain continuity, and place too much effort on a deterministic forecast.

The ranges are an improvement but a more probabilstic approach (which I believe they're working on) would make much more sense.

[powderfreak]

RGEM just rips it up in NNE. Probably my favorite model aside of the Euro lately.

That's freakin' huge up here. Wow. If this secondary bombs out and hugs the coast... lookout NNE.

[CT Rain]

But it represents their general thinking. BOX has ad advisory down to ORH but not south of there.

If it represents "general thinking" you shouldn't try to show large and very specific swings in a matter of miles. It gives the impression of far more certainty than actually exists.

[ChrisM]

Home, not really at all. Went 2-4" for NW ct. School... 2" may be high. Idk the elevation at UCONN though.

550 or so

[Ginx snewx]

That's freakin' huge up here.  Wow.  If this secondary bombs out and hugs the coast... lookout NNE.

Yea those two models are just perfect for NNE, lets see what else the night brings, getting pretty neat to see this evolve.

[CoastalWx]

GFS looks like it still argues 2-2.5" for Kevin.

[Tropopause_Fold]

gfs looks to be a good middle of the road. given it's such a good model, that makes sense.

[Typhoon Tip]

gfs looks to be a good middle of the road. given it's such a good model, that makes sense.

HAHA lol

[CoastalWx]

gfs looks to a good middle of the road. given it's such a good model, that makes sense.

LOL, but yeah I sort of like it as a compromise. It is a little less QPF than what 12z showed and has that weird look on the soundings.

[weatherMA]

gfs holds serve. 1-3" light snowfall on the gfs.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

GFS does appear to be sliding along to the idea the Euro/RGEM were showing with the front wandering around under us, low busts out on the front and yada yada yada NNE.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Home on break?

Yeah went to ft myers to see the sox practice. Had this week off.

[CoastalWx]

It also hits western CT real good with lift around 09z. It's a little weird looking in that all the lift is at 700mb and not much above or below it. The soundings have a weird look with little dry pockets. Not sure if I like seeing that.

[ctsnowstorm628]

550 or so

I could see 550' getting an inch or two depending on timing and the thump

[N. OF PIKE]

gfs lessens the qpf that falls N AND E of say ORH/PIKE for the 7 am to 1pm period tommorrow from it's 12z to 18z runs by like 30-40%.

in my mind with border line temps and less substanital rates this is the 33f snow that will says doesn't really accumulate for E SNE including 495 area into parts of SNH. looks like a shift toward the euro with the WAA snows

so round 1 looks good for WCT and round 2 looks good for CNE/NNE. for E SNE wanna roll the dice 1 more time this year.

[Tropopause_Fold]

LOL, but yeah I sort of like it as a compromise. It is a little less QPF than what 12z showed and has that weird look on the soundings.

i think in any other winter we probably wouldn't be spending too much time on this one.

but given the timing of its arrival and what this forecast looked like a few days ago it's worth it...plus people should be psyched that at least some snow is coming.

[CT Rain]

It also hits western CT real good with lift around 09z. It's a little weird looking in that all the lift is at 700mb and not much above or below it. The soundings have a weird look with little dry pockets. Not sure if I like seeing that.

No snow south of the Monadnocks

[Clinch Leatherwood]

EPIC UP THERE

[CT Rain]

GFS still has almost 0.5" QPF here. Looks like 0.45"ish?

[CoastalWx]

gfs lessens the qpf that falls N AND E of say ORH/PIKE after 7 am tommorrow from it's 12z to 18z runs by like 30-40%

There are a few red flags...if anything people like ChrisM and maybe Kevin can try to take advantage with them being west..if indeed this decides to weaken.

But you never know. The LLJ may be strong enough to just allow the frontogenesis to really take what it's feeding it, and convert it to a band of mdt or greater snow for someone. This event just doesn't have the greatest of vibes for me, but there are some plus factors too.

[ctsnowstorm628]

EPIC UP THERE

Epic is a bit strong lol looks good though

[CT Rain]

There are a few red flags...if anything people like ChrisM and maybe Kevin can try to take advantage with them being west..if indeed this decides to weaken.

But you never know. The LLJ may be strong enough to just allow the frontogenesis to really take what it's feeding it, and convert it to a band of mdt or greater snow for someone. This event just doesn't have the greatest of vibes for me, but there are some plus factors too.

Yeah I agree. That's why I think it makes sense to go with a conservative solution at this point. A 1-3 kind of deal less than half of what the NAM shows, less than the GFS, and about on par with the Euro.

There are negatives when you start to look closely

[CoastalWx]

i think in any other winter we probably wouldn't be spending too much time on this one.

but given the timing of its arrival and what this forecast looked like a few days ago it's worth it...plus people should be psyched that at least some snow is coming.

Even though this area might not see much of anything, I like these events from a learning standpoint. Kind of cool to see how it plays out. I'm not all that bullish right now, but I can see how this could bust in the positive too.