Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

[CoastalWx]

I'm glad Logan11 might do OK. I was worried about him.

[Tropopause_Fold]

the srefs have ~100% prob for >.25" in 6hrs ending 15z over a good chunk of MA and CT. and even modest probs for .5"

don't know...have a tough time thinking they are *that* wrong.

[N. OF PIKE]

not ONE of the GFS Ens. members gives the Mass 128 loop more than 3 inches of snow (on their clown maps) out to 42 hours

and i can't find any that give wachusett more than 4-5 inches either

[weatherMA]

GYX snowfall map...not on board for snow on the NH coast so I guess they think a warmer solution plays out.

[CT Rain]

lol 90%+ 1" sref probs here.

[CT Rain]

the srefs have ~100% prob for >.25" in 6hrs ending 15z over a good chunk of MA and CT. and even modest probs for .5"

don't know...have a tough time thinking they are *that* wrong.

Yeah within 18 hours that seems like a lock at this point getting 1/4" QPF.

[weatherMA]

the srefs have ~100% prob for >.25" in 6hrs ending 15z over a good chunk of MA and CT. and even modest probs for .5"

don't know...have a tough time thinking they are *that* wrong.

Of 22 sref members, 19 give ORH between 2 and 3.5". Two give less then 1" and one gives 6"+. Pretty good consensus.

[N. OF PIKE]

It just hasn't been below 32 for over 48 hours here - which is extremely uncharacteristic for this time of the year. But hopefully you are correct.

yup with good rates this rule has been proven to be garbage upteen times.

[ORH_wxman]

not ONE of the GFS Ens. members gives the Mass 128 loop more than 3 inches of snow (on their clown maps) out to 42 hours

and i can't find any that give wachusett more than 4-5 inches either

Were you expecting more? GFS is not crazy like the NAM...and ensembles were in fairly good agreement. Its basically a 2-4" event...maybe hedge a bit lower.

[CoastalWx]

If you look at the NAM and HRRR...it has the classic SWFE look to the precip shield. What I mean is that big blob of QPF that moves in from the WSW. It's fed by a strong LLJ in which you can see on simulated radar products, as almost convective looking cells moving across se PA and NJ. It then narrows out, but extends way west into KORD.

[Damage In Tolland]

Ryan gets more snow than Kevin on the NAM clown map, lol.

What are you forecasting in CT?

[N. OF PIKE]

Were you expecting more? GFS is not crazy like the NAM...and ensembles were in fairly good agreement. Its basically a 2-4" event...maybe hedge a bit lower.

no not at all

point out current evidence as to why the nam clown maps are garbage

[dendrite]

the srefs have ~100% prob for >.25" in 6hrs ending 15z over a good chunk of MA and CT. and even modest probs for .5"

don't know...have a tough time thinking they are *that* wrong.

In 3 runs they went from 85% to 5% here. lol

[CT Rain]

Who knew the GEFS had clown maps???

[mattb65]

If you look at the NAM and HRRR...it has the classic SWFE look to the precip shield. What I mean is that big blob of QPF that moves in from the WSW. It's fed by a strong LLJ in which you can see on simulated radar products, as almost convective looking cells moving across se PA and NJ. It then narrows out, but extends way west into KORD.

I was just about to post the same thing regarding the HRRR - here's what it looks like at the end of the most recent run. I know this is kinda to post the HRRR at the end of it's range but it definitely shows a solid wall of fairly heavy snow to move through and quickly drop a couple inches of snow on the region

[powderfreak]

BTV's map for the North Country...

[wxmanmitch]

18Z NAM looks like a 5-6" paste job for this area tomorrow morning followed by a period of mixed light rain, drizzle, and sleet. There could be some minor glazing in pockets on the east slope, but with the sun angle the way it is, it'll be minimal if there's any at all.

If secondary blows up like the NAM has it, we start as heavy rain and sleet before ending a brief burst of heavy snow, which could bring some additional accumulation. How much more depends on how quickly we'd flip back to snow, assuming the secondary bombs as depicted. I'd rather be 50-100 miles north to cash in on the secondary.

[ORH_wxman]

What are you forecasting in CT?

Probably nothing....you told me it wouldn't snow south of the MA/NH border.

[weatherMA]

LOL, HRRR ftw.

Close to warning criteria thump.

[ORH_wxman]

That HRRR run has like 1-2" per hour moving into CT in the early morning hours...pretty impressive.

[dryslot]

Deduct 30% NAM QPF output on principle and then deduct another 30% because it's been huffing glue this season.

I will keep my 3-5" forecast for the greater Limington metroplex.

Optimistically went 4-6" here in the Dirty Lew..

[Tropopause_Fold]

it's staggering the difference between the ec and the nam s of LI. where the NAM has about 35 to 45 knots of SSE inflow the euro has about 10 knots.

[CoastalWx]

Probably nothing....you told me it wouldn't snow south of the MA/NH border.

Besides, how can it snow when it's going to be 50 everywhere.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Does anyone have the NOAA snowfall map for NH?

[CT Rain]

Probably nothing....you told me it wouldn't snow south of the MA/NH border.

This has been a rough winter for Kevin including mental breakdowns and large forecasting busts. Tough.

I have 1-3" for mby points north.

[CoastalWx]

it's staggering the difference between the ec and the nam s of LI. where the NAM has about 35 to 45 knots of SSE inflow the euro has about 10 knots.

I didn't look at 850 winds, but is that what it had?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

NAM is on big league whitney houston grade crack.

[ctsnowstorm628]

LOL, HRRR ftw.

Close to warning criteria thump.

Probably not warning...lol

[ChrisM]

I'll be driving right past Tolland mid day tomorrow.

Wanna grab a beeyah?

[N. OF PIKE]

i think at this point it looks pretty solid for W SNE getting 1-3 inches perhaps a 4 spot. E SNE i'm not sold on outside of ORH (which is really central)

was the omega greater in CT then Eastern SNE for euro?