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Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I haven't bit on advisory snow yet...I'm sticking with 1-3" for now. But as we get closer, I'm becoming a bit more skeptical of the Euro.

It just looked funny. I wouldn't have been shocked if it had something less than the GFS, but it had virtually nothing through 15z. But even if it's wrong..I wonder if it's smelling out something. On the other hand, there is the NAM and even if that is kooked out..it's a decent thump for your area. For my sake, I hope the GFS or NAM is closer because I mentioned some wintry precip in my TAF. Luckily it was the morning issuance..lol. I'll just save it for the next shift.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

I'll be driving right past Tolland mid day tomorrow.

You could always stop off in Union and visit the famous Traveler's Restaurant is you're hungry and want a free book:

http://www.hiddenbos...Restaurant.html

Agreed. And even such, the ground has been so warm....the last ice melted off a pond I drive by in Somers every day today - how much can it really stick?

There's still frozen ponds in Stafford...one right on Rte 190 by Chelle's. Still, the ground is warm....almost 40° at 4" by my house this morning.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

It just looked funny. I wouldn't have been shocked if it had something less than the GFS, but it had virtually nothing through 15z. But even if it's wrong..I wonder if it's smelling out something. On the other hand, there is the NAM and even if that is kooked out..it's a decent thump for your area. For my sake, I hope the GFS or NAM is closer because I mentioned some wintry precip in my TAF. Luckily it was the morning issuance..lol. I'll just save it for the next shift.

Leave it for the next shift!!!

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

It just looked funny. I wouldn't have been shocked if it had something less than the GFS, but it had virtually nothing through 15z. But even if it's wrong..I wonder if it's smelling out something. On the other hand, there is the NAM and even if that is kooked out..it's a decent thump for your area. For my sake, I hope the GFS or NAM is closer because I mentioned some wintry precip in my TAF. Luckily it was the morning issuance..lol. I'll just save it for the next shift.

:lmao:

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

It just looked funny. I wouldn't have been shocked if it had something less than the GFS, but it had virtually nothing through 15z. But even if it's wrong..I wonder if it's smelling out something. On the other hand, there is the NAM and even if that is kooked out..it's a decent thump for your area. For my sake, I hope the GFS or NAM is closer because I mentioned some wintry precip in my TAF. Luckily it was the morning issuance..lol. I'll just save it for the next shift.

:lol:

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

nam clown maps are funny if nothing else

royalston mass 12 inches ..... 9-10 in elevated ORH. 10-11 in hubbardson. 13 from ringde up thru pat's peak and sunapee.

2-3 slushy inches for bos. and 5 or so for ray.

Ryan gets more snow than Kevin on the NAM clown map, lol.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

Agreed. And even such, the ground has been so warm....the last ice melted off a pond I drive by in Somers every day today - how much can it really stick?

I always think warm ground before storms is over rated. Given 12 hours of darkness before the storm if it snows in earnest it will stick pretty easily in my opinion.

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adamrivers

adamrivers

Posted
Posted

I always think warm ground before storms is over rated. Given 12 hours of darkness before the storm if it snows in earnest it will stick pretty easily in my opinion.

It just hasn't been below 32 for over 48 hours here - which is extremely uncharacteristic for this time of the year. But hopefully you are correct.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

It just hasn't been below 32 for over 48 hours here - which is extremely uncharacteristic for this time of the year. But hopefully you are correct.

Warm ground is a zero issue if you get decent snowfall intensity....it might be an issue if you are stuck at 33F light snow for hours...but if you are thumping moderate to heavy snow at 31F, the day before could have been 75F and it really wouldn't matter that much.

Hopefully the Euro is too light because then we might have 33F light snow problems...but that in itself means you weren't really missing much anyway.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Well we'll see what the GFS does. Hard to shake the euro, though. Even if it is too lean with the QPF, you have to wonder if the WAA precip does get cutoff pretty quick as it slides ne from NY State. I guess that's the part that concerns me. Obviously the NAM does not do this, but you have to wonder. I'd feel better if the GFS didn't cut back at 18z, and the other guidance does argue for something a little more robust, which I can agree with...although not like the NAM.

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