Hilltop avoiding non-isallobaric wind from heaven... UKMET/Euro try to save society as we know it

[weatherMA]

Socks would be as naked as a Jaybird cept the tube socks up to his thighs. Holy Nam bomb

Yeah, south of socks would be rain on part 2, but around socks-con that get in on part 1 and part 2 as snow could see 8-12" if the nam is right.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'll be driving right past Tolland mid day tomorrow.

If i get 5 inches of snow tomorrow..i will leave the board for 3 months..no posting.

[dendrite]

lol...what a run for up here. Unfortunately for CON/MHT south that secondary is primarily a ZR/IP bomb ending as snow.

[CT Rain]

LOL at NAM, it changes back over N ORH county and SW NH to a snow bomb at 33 hours and dumps another 4-6".

lol I love the NAM.

Within 18 hours I do actually put stock in it. So at least part 1 is somewhat believable.

[dryslot]

lol...what a run for up here. Unfortunately for CON/MHT south that secondary is primarily a ZR/IP bomb ending as snow.

comical actually

[powderfreak]

LOL at NAM, it changes back over N ORH county and SW NH to a snow bomb at 33 hours and dumps another 4-6".

I wonder if we actually see that secondary develop further south and bomb quicker. That thing could get huge quickly.

This would put SNE in the game for front end and back end snows.

[weathafella]

Vim Toot!

42108958522 15616 790126 23969287

A foot in 6 hours. KCAR.

[CoastalWx]

NAM has very strong frontogenesis over SNE tomorrow morning. Combine that with the theta-e bomb at 850 riding up and hitting at brick wall over LI sound at 60kts...there is your solution.

[dryslot]

Ryan had mentioned 960mb over caribou, Not far off................

[ORH_wxman]

lol I love the NAM.

Within 18 hours I do actually put stock in it. So at least part 1 is somewhat believable.

Euro is bothering me...I thought it would come in better at 12z after it trended toward NCEP models at 00z. Its hard to think the other models are going to be so wrong inside of 18 hours though...even the RUC is showing a big thump getting in here about 12-15 hours from now.

[Tropopause_Fold]

lol I love the NAM.

Within 18 hours I do actually put stock in it. So at least part 1 is somewhat believable.

that's kind of how i feel. i suppose 00z could still pull the rug out from under this, but i expected that run to do it.

we'll know relatively soon just based on obs.

[weatherMA]

LOL at NAM, it changes back over N ORH county and SW NH to a snow bomb at 33 hours and dumps another 4-6".

Lalalalaocked. 18 hour out. This is humorous if nothing else.

[CoastalWx]

Euro is bothering me...I thought it would come in better at 12z after it trended toward NCEP models at 00z. Its hard to think the other models are going to be so wrong inside of 18 hours though...even the RUC is showing a big thump getting in here about 12-15 hours from now.

That's what sucks. It's hard to think models on both sides can be wrong this far out, but I thought the GFS op was a decent compromise between the meager Euro and the obscene NAM. Something like that.

[mattb65]

Agreed. And even such, the ground has been so warm....the last ice melted off a pond I drive by in Somers every day today - how much can it really stick?

:weenie:

[CT Rain]

NAM has very strong frontogenesis over SNE tomorrow morning. Combine that with the theta-e bomb at 850 riding up and hitting at brick wall over LI sound at 60kts...there is your solution.

Bingo... I think a 12z bomb is quite possible in many areas. Who knows... even HVN could get in on the action if we see a burst of strong frontogenesis/omega.

Leave it for this winter to produce a surprise 5" snowbomb for populated areas centered around 12z.

[ineedsnow]

I wonder what box is going to do now

[adamrivers]

:weenie:

I will give myself worst post of the day award

[ineedsnow]

Why would you do that its fun watching you post

If i get 5 inches of snow tomorrow..i will leave the board for 3 months..no posting.

[CoastalWx]

The ukie looked kind of meh too. I don't know..part of me wonder how you can generate this much QPF on pure WAA and little PVA.

[CoastalWx]

I know the storm back in January did just that, but that was over a longer period of time and a colder atmosphere. It just looks a little too amped up..but if that LLJ is anywhere near correct..I can see why the NAM has what it has.

[weatherMA]

Bingo... I think a 12z bomb is quite possible in many areas. Who knows... even HVN could get in on the action if we see a burst of strong frontogenesis/omega.

Leave it for this winter to produce a surprise 5" snowbomb for populated areas centered around 12z.

fixed it for ya

[CT Rain]

The ukie looked kind of meh too. I don't know..part of me wonder how you can generate this much QPF on pure WAA and little PVA.

Well you sort of answered that question above. If you're able to generate the LLJ... the thump of warm advection and frontogenesis can certainly do it. At least for a couple hour period of time.

No question the NAM is likely too robust - but 18 hours out - with SREF support I think a solution juicier than Euro is a good bet.

[weatherMA]

I wonder what box is going to do now

probably toss the 18z nam and throw out a special weather statement for 1-3" around the commute ....my guess.

[bboughton]

what does NAM have verbatim for Boston and its suburbs?

[weatherMA]

I like how Ryan is all in basically. Let's do it. 5" tomorrow after 3 hrs of sleep incoming.

[ORH_wxman]

I know the storm back in January did just that, but that was over a longer period of time and a colder atmosphere. It just looks a little too amped up..but if that LLJ is anywhere near correct..I can see why the NAM has what it has.

I haven't bit on advisory snow yet...I'm sticking with 1-3" for now. But as we get closer, I'm becoming a bit more skeptical of the Euro.

[CoastalWx]

Well you sort of answered that question above. If you're able to generate the LLJ... the thump of warm advection and frontogenesis can certainly do it. At least for a couple hour period of time.

No question the NAM is likely too robust - but 18 hours out - with SREF support I think a solution juicier than Euro is a good bet.

Yeah that's what I mean...I wonder if it is too strong with that. Just thinking out loud here. GFS has a 40-45kt jet and looks a little more realistic.

[NorEastermass128]

probably toss the 18z nam and throw out a special weather statement for 1-3" around the commute ....my guess.

Maybe Pete B at 4PM will go 1-3" BOS metro, 3-6" NW of 495. 6"+ mts.

[CT Rain]

RPM looks sort of reasonable tomorrow.

[Damage In Tolland]

Bingo... I think a 12z bomb is quite possible in many areas. Who knows... even HVN could get in on the action if we see a burst of strong frontogenesis/omega.

Leave it for this winter to produce a surprise 5" snowbomb for populated areas centered around 12z.

So if this were to happen..it starts snowing like 3::00- 4:00 am and just bangs down from like 5:00-8:00 ish?